You are on page 1of 49

13 - 1

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 2

Consider 2 Hypothetical Firms

Firm U Firm L
No debt $10,000 of 12% debt
$20,000 in assets $20,000 in assets
40% tax rate 40% tax rate
Both firms have same operating
leverage, business risk, and probability
distribution of EBIT. Differ only with
respect to use of debt (capital structure).
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 3

Impact of Leverage on Returns

Firm U Firm L
EBIT $3,000 $3,000
Interest 0 1,200
EBT $3,000 $1,800
Taxes (40%) 1 ,200 720
NI $1,800 $1,080
ROE 9.0% 10.8%
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 4
Why does leveraging increase return?

Total dollar return to investors:


U: NI = $1,800.
L: NI + Int = $1,080 + $1,200 = $2,280.
Difference = $480.
Taxes paid:
U: $1,200; L: $720.
Difference = $480.
More EBIT goes to investors in Firm L.
Equity $ proportionally lower than NI.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 5

What is business risk?

Uncertainty about future operating income


(EBIT), i.e., how well can we predict operating
income? Probability
Low risk

High risk

0 E(EBIT) EBIT
Note that business risk does not include
financing effects.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 6

Business risk is affected primarily by:

Uncertainty about demand (sales).


Uncertainty about output prices.
Uncertainty about costs.
Product, other types of liability.
Operating leverage.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 7
What is operating leverage, and how
does it affect a firms business risk?

Operating leverage is the use of


fixed costs rather than variable
costs.
If most costs are fixed, hence do not
decline when demand falls, then the
firm has high operating leverage.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 8
More operating leverage leads to
more business risk, for then a small
sales decline causes a big profit
decline.
$ Rev. $ Rev.
TC
} Profit
TC
FC
FC

QBE Sales QBE Sales

What happens if variable costs change?


Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 9

Probability Low operating leverage

High operating leverage

EBITL EBITH

Typical situation: Can use operating


leverage to get higher E(EBIT), but
risk increases.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 10

What is financial leverage?


Financial risk?

Financial leverage is the use of


debt and preferred stock.
Financial risk is the additional risk
concentrated on common
stockholders as a result of
financial leverage.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 11

Business Risk vs. Financial Risk

Business risk depends on business


factors such as competition, product
liability, and operating leverage.
Financial risk depends only on the
types of securities issued: More debt,
more financial risk. Concentrates
business risk on stockholders.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 12

Firm U: Unleveraged

Economy
Bad Avg. Good
Prob. 0.25 0.50 0.25
EBIT $2,000 $3,000 $4,000
Interest 0 0 0
EBT $2,000 $3,000 $4,000
Taxes (40%) 800 1,200 1,600
NI $1,200 $1,800 $2,400
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 13

Firm L: Leveraged
Economy
Bad Avg. Good
Prob.* 0.25 0.50 0.25
EBIT* $2,000 $3,000 $4,000
Interest 1,200 1,200 1,200
EBT $ 800 $1,800 $2,800
Taxes (40%) 320 720 1,120
NI $ 480 $1,080 $1,680
*Same as for Firm U.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 14

Firm U Bad Avg. Good


BEP* 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
ROE 6.0% 9.0% 12.0%
TIE

8
Firm L Bad Avg. Good
BEP* 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
ROE 4.8% 10.8% 16.8%
TIE 1.67x 2.5x 3.3x
*BEP same for Firms U and L.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 15

Expected Values:
U L
E(BEP) 15.0% 15.0%
E(ROE) 9.0% 10.8%
E(TIE) 2.5x

8
Risk Measures:
ROE 2.12% 4.24%
CVROE 0.24 0.39
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 16

For leverage to raise expected


ROE, must have BEP > kd.
Why? If kd > BEP, then the interest
expense will be higher than the
operating income produced by
debt-financed assets, so leverage
will depress income.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 17

Conclusions

Basic earning power = BEP = EBIT/Total


assets is unaffected by financial
leverage.
L has higher expected ROE because BEP
> k d.
L has much wider ROE (and EPS) swings
because of fixed interest charges. Its
higher expected return is accompanied
by higher risk.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 18

If debt increases, TIE falls.

EBIT
TIE = .
Int

EBIT is constant (unaffected by use


of debt), and since Int = kdD, as D
increases, TIE must fall.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 19

Optimal Capital Structure


That capital structure (mix of debt,
preferred, and common equity) at which
P0 is maximized. Trades off higher
E(ROE) and EPS against higher risk.
The tax-related benefits of leverage are
exactly offset by the debts risk-related
costs.
The target capital structure is the mix of
debt, preferred stock, and common
equity with which the firm intends to
raise capital.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 20

Describe the sequence of events in a


recapitalization.

Campus Deli announces the


recapitalization.
New debt is issued.
Proceeds are used to repurchase
stock.
Debt issued
Shares bought = .
Price per share
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 21
Cost of Debt at Different Debt Levels
after Recapitalization

Amount D/A D/E Bond


borrowed ratio ratio rating kd
$ 0 0 0 -- --
250 0.125 0.1429 AA 8%
500 0.250 0.3333 A 9%
750 0.375 0.6000 BBB 11.5%
1,000 0.500 1.0000 BB 14%
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 22
Why does the bond rating and cost of
debt depend upon the amount
borrowed?

As the firm borrows more money, the


firm increases its risk causing the
firms bond rating to decrease, and its
cost of debt to increase.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 23
What would the earnings per share be
if Campus Deli recapitalized and used
these amounts of debt: $0, $250,000,
$500,000, $750,000? Assume EBIT =
$400,000, T = 40%, and shares can be
repurchased at P0 = $25.
D = 0: (EBIT kdD)(1 T)
EPS0 =
Shares outstanding

($400,000)(0.6)
= 80,000 = $3.00.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 24
D = $250, kd = 8%.

Shares $250,000
= = 10,000.
repurchased $25

[$400 0.08($250)](0.6)
EPS1 =
80 10
= $3.26.

EBIT $400
TIE = = = 20.
I $20
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 25
D = $500, kd = 9%.

Shares $500
= = 20.
repurchased $25

[$400 0.09($500)](0.6)
EPS2 =
80 20
= $3.55.

EBIT $400
TIE = = = 8.9.
I $45
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 26
D = $750, kd = 11.5%.

Shares $750
= = 30.
repurchased $25

[$400 0.115($750)](0.6)
EPS3 =
80 30
= $3.77.

EBIT $400
TIE = = = 4.6.
I $86.25
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 27
D = $1,000, kd = 14%.

Shares $1,000
= = 40.
repurchased $25

[$400 0.14($1,000)](0.6)
EPS4 =
80 40
= $3.90.

EBIT $400
TIE = = = 2.9.
I $140
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 28

Stock Price (Zero Growth)

D1 EPS DPS
P0 = = = .
ks g ks ks

If payout = 100%, then EPS = DPS and


E(g) = 0.
We just calculated EPS = DPS. To
find the expected stock price (P 0), we
must find the appropriate ks at each of
the debt levels discussed.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 29

What effect would increasing debt


have on the cost of equity for the firm?

If the level of debt increases, the


riskiness of the firm increases.
We have already observed the
increase in the cost of debt.
However, the riskiness of the firms
equity also increases, resulting in a
higher ks.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 30

The Hamada Equation

Because the increased use of debt


causes both the costs of debt and
equity to increase, we need to
estimate the new cost of equity.
The Hamada equation attempts to
quantify the increased cost of equity
due to financial leverage.
Uses the unlevered beta of a firm,
which represents the business risk
of a firm as if
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.
it had no debt. All rights reserved.
13 - 31

The Hamada Equation (contd)

bL = bU[1 + (1 T)(D/E)].

The risk-free rate is 6%, as is the


market risk premium. The unlevered
beta of the firm is 1.0. We were
previously told that total assets were
$2,000,000.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 32

Calculating Levered Betas

D = $250 ks = kRF + (kM kRF)bL


bL = bU[1 + (1 T)(D/E)]
bL = 1.0[1 + (1 0.4)($250/$1,750)]
bL = 1.0[1 + (0.6)(0.1429)]
bL = 1.0857.
ks = kRF + (kM kRF)bL
ks = 6.0% + (6.0%)1.0857 = 12.51%.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 33

Table for Calculating Levered Betas

Amount D/A D/E Levered


borrowed ratio ratio Beta ks
$ 0 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 12.00%
250 12.50 14.29 1.09 12.51
500 25.00 33.33 1.20 13.20
750 37.50 60.00 1.36 14.16
1,000 50.00 100.00 1.60 15.60
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 34

Finding Optimal Capital Structure

The firms optimal capital structure


can be determined two ways:
Minimizes WACC.
Maximizes stock price.
Both methods yield the same results.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 35

Minimizing the WACC

Amount D/A ratio E/A


borrowed ratio ks kd (1 T) WACC
0.00%
$ 0 100.00% 12.00% 0.00% 12.00%
12.50
250 87.50 12.51 4.80 11.55
25.00
500 75.00 13.20 5.40 11.25
37.50
750 62.50 14.16 6.90 11.44
50.00
1,000 50.00 15.60 8.40 12.00

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 36

Maximizing Stock Price


Amount
Borrowed DPS ks P0

$ 0 $3.00 12.00% $25.00


250,000 3.26 12.51 26.03
500,000 3.55 13.20 26.89*
750,000 3.77 14.16 26.59
1,000,000 3.90 15.60 25.00
*Maximum: Since D = $500,000 and assets =
$2,000,000, optimal D/A = 25%.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 37

What debt ratio maximizes EPS?

See preceding slide. Maximum EPS =


$3.90 at D = $1,000,000, and D/A =
50%. (Remember DPS = EPS because
payout = 100%.)
Risk is too high at D/A = 50%.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 38

What is Campus Delis optimal capital


structure?

P0 is maximized ($26.89) at D/A =


$500,000/$2,000,000 = 25%, so
optimal D/A = 25%.
EPS is maximized at 50%, but
primary interest is stock price, not
E(EPS).
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 39

The example shows that we can


push up E(EPS) by using more
debt, but the risk resulting from
increased leverage more than
offsets the benefit of higher
E(EPS).

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 40
%

15 ks
WACC
kd(1 T)

0 .25 .50 .75 D/A


$

P0
EPS

D/A
.25 .50
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 41
If it were discovered that the firm had
more/less business risk than originally
estimated, how would the analysis be
affected?

If there were higher business risk, then


the probability of financial distress would
be greater at any debt level, and the
optimal capital structure would be one
that had less debt. On the other hand,
lower business risk would lead to an
optimal capital structure with more debt.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 42
Other Factors to Consider When
Establishing the Firms Target Capital
Structure

1. Industry average debt ratio


2. TIE ratios under different scenarios
3. Lender/rating agency attitudes
4. Reserve borrowing capacity
5. Effects of financing on control
6. Asset structure
7. Expected tax rate
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 43

How would these factors affect the


Target Capital Structure?

1. Sales stability?
2. High operating leverage?
3. Increase in the corporate tax rate?
4. Increase in the personal tax rate?
5. Increase in bankruptcy costs?
6. Management spending lots of money
on lavish perks?
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 44
Value of Stock
MM result

Actual

No leverage

D/A
0 D1 D2

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 45

The graph shows MMs tax benefit


vs. bankruptcy cost theory.
Logical, but doesnt tell whole
capital structure story. Main
problem--assumes investors have
same information as managers.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 46

Signaling theory suggests firms


should use less debt than MM
suggest.
This unused debt capacity helps
avoid stock sales, which depress
P0 because of signaling effects.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 47

What are signaling effects in capital


structure?

Assumptions:

Managers have better information


about a firms long-run value than
outside investors.
Managers act in the best interests
of current stockholders.

Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.


13 - 48

Therefore, managers can be expected to:

Issue stock if they think stock is


overvalued.
Issue debt if they think stock is
undervalued.
As a result, investors view a common
stock offering as a negative signal--
managers think stock is overvalued.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 - 49
Conclusions on Capital Structure

1. Need to make calculations as we


did, but should also recognize
inputs are guesstimates.
2. As a result of imprecise numbers,
capital structure decisions have a
large judgmental content.
3. We end up with capital structures
varying widely among firms, even
similar ones in same industry.
Copyright 2002 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved.

You might also like