BusinessForecasting:

ExperimentsandCaseStudies

Dr. Yukun Bao

School of Management, HUST
Case3:LoadForecasting

Dr. Yukun Bao

School of Management, HUST
 Contents
1. Problem Statement
2. Modeling tasks
3. Data Analysis
4. Experimental Results
5. Summary

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 3

 1. Problem Statement

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 4

 1. Problem Statement
Load Forecasting
Predict the future electric demand based on
historical load, climate factors, seasonal factors,
social activities, and other possible factors.
Typical applications
Short-term: from one hour to one week ahead
forecasts
Medium-term: a week to a year ahead
Long-term: Longer than a year
Forecasts for different time horizons are important
for different operations within a utility company

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 5

 1. Problem Statement

Benefits of accurate forecasting of Load demand

Utilities/ System Operators/Generators/ Power
Marketers/ other participants in electric generation,
transmission, distribution, and markets
automatic generation control, safe and reliable
operation, and resource dispatch
Energy transaction in deregulated and competitive
electricity markets
infrastructure development

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 6

 1. Problem Statement
Goal of this case study
Primary experimental study in day-ahead load
forecast (Short-term Load forecasting)
Data
Hourly load and temperature data from North-American
electric utility
Forecasting Methods ( by Matlab/R)
Support Vector Regression
Artificial Neural Network
ARIMA
ES
MA
March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 7
 2. Modeling Tasks
Step1: Data Analysis (SPSS/Matlab)
Preprocess
Visualize and Analysis

Step2: Constructing Model

Input features selection
Parameters Optimization

Step3: Experimental Results and Analysis

Run Model
Results and comparison

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 8

 3. Data Analysis (1)
Testing period:
January in 1991

Training period:
The previous three months hourly data

Preprocess:
Zero values
[0,1]

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 9

 3. Data Analysis (1)-
Descriptive
Descriptive Statistics
SPSS: Minimu Maximu Std.
N Range m m Mean Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis
Statisti Std. Std.
c Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Error Statistic Error
Load 2904 3285.00 1350.00 4635.00 2623.7999 616.25958 379775.8 .180 .045 -.417 .091
76
Temperature 2904 54.00 12.00 66.00 42.9490 9.33553 87.152 -.854 .045 .928 .091

Valid N 2904
(listwise)

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 10

 3. Data Analysis (1)-
ScatterPlot
In SPSS: GraphsLegacy DialogsScatter/DotSimple
Scatter

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 11

 3. Data Analysis (2)
Hourly load from 3500

01, May,1990 ---

3000
05, July,1990
load demands have 2500

multiple seasonal

Load Value
2000
patterns including
the daily and weekly 1500

periodicity.
1000
load level in the
weekend days and
0 500 1000 1500
holidays is lower Hour

than that in working

Fig.3 Hourly load from 01, May,1990 to 05, July,1990
days

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 12

 3. Data Analysis (3)
2800
Average hourly
load during 24 2600

hours 2400

varies from hour to 2200

Load Value
hour
2000
working days Sunday
Monday
except Friday have 1800 Tuesday

similar shapes and Wednesday

Thursday
1600
similar magnitude Friday
Saturday
weekend days < 1400
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
working days Hour

Fig.4 Hourly load during a day

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 13

 3. Data Analysis (4)
Temperature v.s. Load Demand
nonlinear relationship
5000

4500

4000

3500
Load

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Temperature

Fig.5 Correlation between the load and temperature.

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 14

 3. Data Analysis (4)
Temperature v.s. Load Demand
Only for training and testing period
Correlations

Load Temperature

Load Pearson Correlation 1 -.574**

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 2904 2904

Temperature Pearson Correlation -.574** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 2904 2904

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Fig.5 Correlation between the load and temperature.

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 15

 3. Data Analysis (5)
Input features for SVR/ANN
hourly load values of the previous 12 hours, and similar
hours in the previous one week
Temperature variables for time point that the load was
included, plus the forecasted temperature for the
forecasting hour.
daily and hourly calendar indicators

L(t 1), L(t 2),..., L(t 12), L(t 24), L(t 48),..., L(t 168),

Input (t ) T (t ), T (t 1), T (t 2),..., T (t 12), T (t 24), T (t 48),..., T (t 168),
DI (t ), HI (t )

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 16

 4. Experiments
Forecasting Methods ( by Matlab/R)
Support Vector Regression
Artificial Neural Network
ARIMA
ES
MA

Input features: all the above features

Parameter optimization: Grid search, PSO

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 17

 4. Experiments
Evaluation measures

Metrics Formula

1 N yt i yt i
MAPE MAPE 100
N i 1 yt i

1 N yt i yt i
MASE MASE
N i 1 1 t
y j y j 1
t 1 j 2
N

d i
DS DS i 2
100
N 1
1, if yt i yt i 1 yt i yt i 1 0
di
0, otherwise

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 18

 4. Experiments
Results

MAPE(%) MASE DS(%)

SVR_GS 6.95 0.77 89.23

SVR_PSO 7.01 0.79 90.19

NN 8.55 0.86 85.15

ARIMA 9.24 0.95 76.91

ES 10.11 1.792 61.24

MA 13.62 2.42 45.09

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 19

 4500

4. Experiments
Actual
4000 Forecast
Error
3500

3000

2500

Results

Load
2000

1500

1000
4500
500
MAForecast set original data
0
MAForecast set forecast
4500
4000 -500
0 100 200 300ESForecast
400 set
500 original
600 data
700 8
Hour
ESForecast set forecast
4000
3500
Demand

3500
3000

Demand
3000
2500

2500
2000

2000
1500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Time
1500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Time

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 20

 Summary
Electricity load forecasting is an important issue to
operate the power system reliably and
economically. In this case study, support vector
regression (SVR) is applied for short-term load
forecasting. Characteristics of the hourly loads are
firstly analyzed to select the input features. Then
forecasting results of SVR with two parameter
optimization methods are compared with several
benchmark forecasting models.
Further topics: features selection method,
separated modeling for each day and special days.

March 22, 2017 Business Forecasting: Experiments and Case 21