Chapter 8

Continuous Probability
Distributions

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 Probability Density Functions
Unlikeadiscreterandomvariablewhichwestudiedin
Chapter7,acontinuousrandomvariableisonethatcan
assumeanuncountablenumberofvalues.
Wecannotlistthepossiblevaluesbecausethereisan
infinitenumberofthem.
Becausethereisaninfinitenumberofvalues,the
probabilityofeachindividualvalueisvirtually0.

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 Point Probabilities are Zero
Becausethereisaninfinitenumberofvalues,the
probabilityofeachindividualvalueisvirtually0.

Thus,wecandeterminetheprobabilityofarangeofvalues
only.

E.g.withadiscreterandomvariableliketossingadie,itis
meaningfultotalkaboutP(X=5),say.
Inacontinuoussetting(e.g.withtimeasarandomvariable),the
probabilitytherandomvariableofinterest,saytasklength,takes
exactly5minutesisinfinitesimallysmall,henceP(X=5)=0.
ItismeaningfultotalkaboutP(X5).
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 Probability Density Function
Afunctionf(x)iscalledaprobabilitydensityfunction(over
therangeaxbifitmeetsthefollowing
requirements:

1) f(x)0forallxbetweenaandb,and

f(x)

area=1
a b x
2) Thetotalareaunderthecurvebetweenaandbis1.0

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Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 8.5
 Uniform Distribution
Considertheuniformprobabilitydistribution(sometimes
calledtherectangularprobabilitydistribution).
Itisdescribedbythefunction:

f(x)

a b x

area=widthxheight=(ba)x=1
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 Example 8.1(b)
Theamountofgasolinesolddailyataservicestationis
uniformlydistributedwithaminimumof2,000gallonsanda
maximumof5,000gallons.
f(x)

2,000 5,000 x
Whatistheprobabilitythattheservicestationwillsellat
least4,000gallons?
Algebraically:whatisP(X4,000)?
P(X4,000)=(5,0004,000)x(1/3000)=.3333
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 The Normal Distribution
Thenormaldistributionisthemostimportantofall
probabilitydistributions.Theprobabilitydensityfunctionof
anormalrandomvariableisgivenby:

Itlookslikethis:
Bellshaped,
Symmetricalaroundthemean
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 The Normal Distribution
Importantthingstonote:
Thenormaldistributionisfullydefinedbytwoparameters:
itsstandarddeviationandmean

Thenormaldistributionisbellshapedand
symmetricalaboutthemean

Unliketherangeoftheuniformdistribution(axb)
Normaldistributionsrangefromminusinfinitytoplusinfinity
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 Standard Normal Distribution
Anormaldistributionwhosemeaniszeroandstandard
deviationisoneiscalledthestandardnormaldistribution.
0
1

Asweshallseeshortly,anynormaldistributioncanbe
convertedtoastandardnormaldistributionwithsimple
algebra.Thismakescalculationsmucheasier.
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 Normal Distribution
Thenormaldistributionisdescribedbytwoparameters:
itsmeananditsstandarddeviation.Increasingthe
meanshiftsthecurvetotheright

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 Normal Distribution
Thenormaldistributionisdescribedbytwoparameters:
itsmeananditsstandarddeviation.Increasingthe
standarddeviationflattensthecurve

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 Calculating Normal Probabilities
Example:Thetimerequiredtobuildacomputerisnormally
distributedwithameanof50minutesandastandard
deviationof10minutes:

0
Whatistheprobabilitythatacomputerisassembledina
timebetween45and60minutes?

Algebraicallyspeaking,whatisP(45<X<60)?
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 Calculating Normal Probabilities
P(45<X<60)?
meanof50minutesanda
standarddeviationof10minutes

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 Calculating Normal Probabilities
P(.5<Z<1)lookslikethis:

Theprobabilityisthearea
underthecurve

Wewilladdupthe
twosections:
P(.5<Z<0)and 0
P(0<Z<1) .51

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 Calculating Normal Probabilities
HowtouseTable3[otherformsofnormaltablesexist]

ThistablegivesprobabilitiesP(0<Z<z)
Firstcolumn=integer+firstdecimal
Toprow=seconddecimalplace

P(0<Z<0.5)

P(0<Z<1)

P(.5<Z<1)=.1915+.3414=.5328

Theprobabilitytimeisbetween
45and60minutes=.5328

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 Using the Normal Table (Table 3)
WhatisP(Z>1.6)?
P(0 < Z < 1.6) = .4452

0 1.6
P(Z > 1.6) = .5 P(0 < Z < 1.6)
= .5 .4452
= .0548
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 Using the Normal Table (Table 3)
WhatisP(Z<2.23)?
P(0 < Z < 2.23)

P(Z < -2.23) P(Z > 2.23)

-2.23 0 2.23
P(Z < -2.23) = P(Z > 2.23)
= .5 P(0 < Z < 2.23)
= .0129
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 Using the Normal Table (Table 3)
WhatisP(Z<1.52)?

P(Z < 0) = .5 P(0 < Z < 1.52)

0 1.52
P(Z < 1.52) = .5 + P(0 < Z < 1.52)
= .5 + .4357
= .9357
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 Using the Normal Table (Table 3)
WhatisP(0.9<Z<1.9)?
P(0 < Z < 0.9)

P(0.9 < Z < 1.9)

0 0.9 1.9
P(0.9 < Z < 1.9) = P(0 < Z < 1.9) P(0 < Z < 0.9)
=.4713 .3159
= .1554
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 Example 8.2
Thereturnoninvestmentisnormallydistributedwitha
meanof10%andastandarddeviationof5%.Whatisthe
probabilityoflosingmoney?

WewanttodetermineP(X<0).Thus,
X 0 10
P ( X 0) P
5
P ( Z 2)
.5 P ( 0 Z 2 )
.5 .4772
.0228

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 Finding Values of ZA
OftenwereaskedtofindsomevalueofZforagiven
probability,i.e.givenanarea(A)underthecurve,whatis
thecorrespondingvalueofz(zA)onthehorizontalaxisthat
givesusthisarea?Thatis:
P(Z>zA)=A

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 Finding Values of Z
Whatvalueofzcorrespondstoanareaunderthecurveof
2.5%?Thatis,whatisz.025?

Area = .50 Area = .025

Area = .50.025 = .4750

IfyoudoareverselookuponTable3for.4750,
youwillgetthecorrespondingzA=1.96
SinceP(z>1.96)=.025,wesay:z.025=1.96
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 Finding Values of Z
OtherZvaluesare
Z.05=1.645
Z.01=2.33

Willshowyoushortlyhowtousethettableswithinfinite
degreesoffreedomtofindabunchofthesestandardvalues
forZ

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 Using the values of Z
Becausez.025=1.96andz.025=1.96,itfollowsthatwecan
state

P(1.96<Z<1.96)=.95
TheoldEmpiricalRulestatedabout95%within+2
P(2<Z<2)=.95
Fromnowonwewillusethe1.96numberforthisstatement
unlessyouarejusttalkingingeneraltermsabouthowmuch
ofapopulationinwith+2

Similarly
P(1.645<Z<1.645)=.90
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 8.25
 Exponential Distribution[Not on
test]
Anotherimportantcontinuousdistributionistheexponential
distributionwhichhasthisprobabilitydensityfunction:

Notethatx0.Time(forexample)isanonnegativequantity;the
exponentialdistributionisoftenusedfortimerelatedphenomenasuch
asthelengthoftimebetweenphonecallsorbetweenpartsarrivingat
anassemblystation.Notealsothatthemeanandstandarddeviationare
equaltoeachotherandtotheinverseoftheparameterofthe
distribution(lambda)

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 Exponential Distribution[Not on
test]
Theexponentialdistributiondependsuponthevalueof

Smallervaluesofflattenthecurve:

(E.g.exponential
distributionsfor
=.5,1,2)

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 Other Continuous Distributions
Threeotherimportantcontinuousdistributionswhichwillbe
usedextensivelyinlatersectionsareintroducedhere:
StudenttDistribution,Lookslikethestandardnormal
distribution(Z)aftersomeonesatonit
ChiSquaredDistribution,

FDistribution.

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 Student t Distribution[dont really need to know
formula]
Herethelettertisusedtorepresenttherandomvariable,
hencethename.ThedensityfunctionfortheStudentt
distributionisasfollows

(nu)iscalledthedegreesoffreedom,and
(Gammafunction)is(k)=(k1)(k2)(2)(1)

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 Student t Distribution[1
parameter]
Inmuchthesamewaythatanddefinethenormal
distribution[2parameters],,thedegreesoffreedom,
definestheStudent[willusedf]
tDistribution:

Figure 8.24

Asthenumberofdegreesoffreedomincreases,thet
distributionapproachesthestandardnormaldistribution.
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 Using the t table (Table 4) for
values
Forexample,ifwewantthevalueoftwith10degreesof
freedomsuchthattheareaundertheStudenttcurveis.05:
Area under the curve value (t) :
COLUMN

t.05,10
t.05,10=1.812

Degrees of Freedom : ROW

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 Student t Probabilities and Values
ExcelcancalculateStudentdistributionprobabilitiesand
values.Warning:Excelwillgiveyouthevaluefortwhere
istheareainBOTHtails

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 Chi-Squared Distribution[Not on
test]
Thechisquareddensityfunctionisgivenby:

Asbefore,theparameteristhenumberofdegreesof
freedom.

Figure 8.27
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 8.33
 F Distribution[Not on test]
TheFdensityfunctionisgivenby:

F>0.Twoparametersdefinethisdistribution,andlike
wevealreadyseentheseareagaindegreesoffreedom.
isthenumeratordegreesoffreedomand
isthedenominatordegreesoffreedom.

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 Problems: Standard Normal Z
IftherandomvariableZhasastandardnormaldistribution,
calculatethefollowingprobabilities.
P(Z>1.7)=

P(Z<1.7)=

P(Z>1.7)=

P(Z<1.7)=

P(1.7<Z<1.7)

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 Problems: Normal Distribution
IftherandomvariableXhasanormaldistributionwith
mean40andstd.dev.5,calculatethefollowing
probabilities.
P(X>43)=

P(X<38)=

P(X=40)=

P(X>23)=

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 Problem: Normal
Thetime(Y)ittakesyourprofessortodrivehomeeach
nightisnormallydistributedwithmean15minutesand
standarddeviation2minutes.Findthefollowing
probabilities.Drawapictureofthenormaldistributionand
show(shade)theareathatrepresentstheprobabilityyouare
calculating.
P(Y>25)=

P(11<Y<19)=

P(Y<18)=

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 Problem: Target the Mean
Themanufacturingprocessusedtomakeheartpillsis
knowntohaveastandarddeviationof0.1mg.ofactiveingredient.
Doctorstellusthatapatientwhotakesapillwithover6mg.of
activeingredientmayexperiencekidneyproblems.Sinceyouwantto
protectagainstthis(andmostlikelylawyers),youareaskedto
determinethetargetforthemeanamountofactiveingredientineach
pillsuchthattheprobabilityofapillcontainingover6mg.is0.0035(
0.35%).Youmayassumethattheamountofactiveingredientinapill
isnormallydistributed.
*Solveforthetargetvalueforthemean.
*Drawapictureofthenormaldistributionyoucameupwithandshowthe3sigma
limits.

Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 8.38