Nitor

Agile
Estimation
 Index

Estimation in projects
Estimation Best Practice
Agile Estimating
Agile Estimation Units
Estimation Scale
Estimation- Dos
 Index

Wideband Delphi
Wideband Delphi- Process
Planning Poker
Affinity Estimating
Questions & Answers
 Estimation in projects

What is an estimate?

A numerical approximation of an attribute of an activity

or Product

Approximate judgment.

Estimation is a prediction of how long a project will take or

how much it will cost.
 Estimation in projects
What do we
estimate?

Resourc Duration/
Effort Si
es/ Schedule
ze
Cost
Estimation Best Practice
 Agile Estimating

Relative Sizing/Story Points

Ideal Days

Wideband Delphi

Planning Poker

Affinity Estimating
 Agile Estimation Units

Measures of Software Size

Relative Sizing

Story Points (SP)

Ideal Time

Story Points Vs. Ideal Time

 Agile Estimation Units

Measures of Software Size:

 Agile Estimation Units
Relative Sizing:
 Agile Estimation Units

Story Points (SP):

Story Points are the unit of measurement
for expressing the overall size of a user
story, feature, or other piece of work.
They represent the bigness of a story,
feature or task.
Story Points are unit-less and relative.
Depends upon
How hard it is (complexity).
How much of it there is (effort involved).
How risky it is.
 Agile Estimation Units

Ideal Time:
Ideal Time is the time taken to complete a task if
its all you worked on
you had no interruptions
and everything you need is available.
The ideal time of a football game is 90 minutes (2 halves of 45
minute each).
The elapsed time is much longer (2+ hours).
Estimating in elapsed time (days or hours) requires us to consider
all of the interruptions that might occur while working on the story.
 Agile Estimation Units

Story Points vs. Ideal Time:

Considerations favoring Story Points

Story points help drive cross-functional behavior.
Story points are a pure measures of size.
Estimating in story points is typically faster.

Considerations favoring Ideal Days

Ideal days are easier to understand and explain
outside the team.
Ideal days are easier to estimate at first.
Ideal days can force companies to confront time wasting
activities.
 Estimation Scale

Estimation Scale:
Non-linear Scales
Fibonacci Series [1,2,3,5, and 8]
Doubles [1,2,4, and 8]
 Estimation- Dos

Make it a collaborative activity for the entire team.

Estimates should be on a predefined scale.
Rely on expert opinion, analogy and disaggregation.
Appropriate level of detailing or estimating based on urgency
of Features implementation.
Features that will be worked on in the near future and that
need fairly reliable estimates should be made small enough
that they can be estimated on a non-linear scale. (E.g.
Planning Poker)
Larger features that will most likely not be implemented in
the next few iterations can be left larger and estimated in
larger units. (E.g. Affinity Estimation)
 Wideband Delphi

The Wideband Delphi estimation method is a consensus-

based technique for estimating.
The project manager chooses an estimation team, and
gains consensus among the team on the results.
This technique is a repeatable process because it consists
of a straightforward set of steps that can be performed the
same way each time.
 Wideband Delphi- Process

The project manager

1.Choose the team selects the estimation
2.Kick off meeting team and a
3.Individual preparation moderator. The team
4.Estimation session should include
5.Assemble tasks representatives
6.Review results from every group
that will be involved in
the development of the
work product being
estimated.
 Wideband Delphi- Process

1.Choose the team The moderator

2.Kick off meeting prepares the team and
3.Individual preparation leads a discussion to
4.Estimation session brainstorm
5.Assemble tasks assumptions,
6.Review results generate a WBS and
decide on the units
of estimation.
 Wideband Delphi- Process

After the kick off

1.Choose the team
meeting, each team
2.Kick off meeting
member individually
3.Individual
generates the initial
preparation
estimates for each
4.Estimation session
task in the WBS,
5.Assemble tasks
documenting any
6.Review results
changes to the WBS
and missing
assumptions..
 Wideband Delphi- Process

A series of iterative steps are

followed to gain consensus on
the estimates. The estimates
1.Choose the team are charted on the whiteboard
2.Kick off meeting to show the range of estimates.
3.Individual preparation The team resolves issues and
4.Estimation session revises estimates without
5.Assemble tasks revealing specific numbers. The
6.Review results cycle repeats until either no
estimator wants to change his
or her estimate, the estimators
agree that the range is
acceptable or the specific time
 Wideband Delphi- Process

The project manager

1.Choose the team works with the team to
2.Kick off meeting collect the estimates
3.Individual preparation from the team
4.Estimation session members at the end of
5.Assemble tasks the meeting and
6.Review results compiles the final
task list, estimates
and assumptions.
 Wideband Delphi- Process

1.Choose the team

2.Kick off meeting The project manager
3.Individual preparation reviews the final task
4.Estimation session list with the estimation
5.Assemble tasks team.
6.Review results
 Planning Poker

An iterative approach to estimating.

Based on Wideband Delphi.
 Planning Poker

Steps Involved:
1.Each estimator is given a deck of cards,
each card has a valid estimate written on it
2.Customer/product owner reads a story and
its discussed briefly
3.Each estimator selects a card thats his or
her estimate
4.Cards are turned over so all can see them
5.Discuss differences (especially outliers)
6.Re-estimate until estimates converge.
 Planning Poker

Lets Play:
You want to make a large fruit salad for a party at your
home
Never made one before....
You intent to estimate the effort required.
 Planning Poker

An example:
 Planning Poker

An example:
Consider all factors:
Risk (sharp knife,
spiky/slippery skin)
Effort (size of fruit)
Complexity (cutting
difficulty)
Relativity (to existing
estimates)
 Planning Poker

An example:
 Affinity Estimating

Affinity Estimation:
Affinity estimating is a technique many teams use to
quickly and easily estimate (in story points) a large
number of user stories.
 Affinity Estimating

Steps
Is quick and Involved
Step 1: Silent Relative
easy Sizing
Step 2: Wikipedia-like
Decision making Editing of Wall
process is visible Step 3: Place Items into
Relative Sizing Buckets
Creates a Step 4: Product Owner
Challenge
positive
Step 5: Get it into an
experience rather
Electronic Tool
than
confrontational
Q&A