Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 7
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-1
Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able
to:
Distinguish between a point estimate and a confidence
interval estimate
Construct and interpret a confidence interval estimate for a
single population mean using both the Z and t
distributions
Form and interpret a confidence interval estimate for a
single population proportion
Create confidence interval estimates for the variance of a
normal population
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-2
Confidence Intervals
Mean,
when Population Variance 2 is Known
when Population Variance 2 is Unknown
Confidence Intervals for the Population
Proportion, p (large samples)
Confidence interval estimates for the
variance of a normal population
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-3
7.1
Definitions
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-4
Point and Interval Estimates
Lower Upper
Confidence Confidence
Point Estimate
Limit Limit
Width of
confidence interval
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-5
Point Estimates
Mean x
Proportion P p
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-6
Unbiasedness
A point estimator is said to be an
unbiased estimator of the parameter if the
expected value, or mean, of the sampling
distribution of is ,
E( )
Examples:
The sample mean
x is an unbiased estimator of
The sample variance s2 is an unbiased estimator of 2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-7
Unbiasedness
(continued)
1 2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-8
Bias
be an estimator of
Let
Bias( ) E( )
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-9
Most Efficient Estimator
The relative efficiency of 1 with respect to 2 is the ratio
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-10
7.2
Confidence Intervals
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-11
Confidence Interval Estimate
An interval gives a range of values:
Takes into consideration variation in sample
statistics from sample to sample
Based on observation from 1 sample
Gives information about closeness to
unknown population parameters
Stated in terms of level of confidence
Can never be 100% confident
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-12
Confidence Interval and
Confidence Level
Sample
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-14
Confidence Level, (1-)
(continued)
Suppose confidence level = 95%
Also written (1 - ) = 0.95
A relative frequency interpretation:
From repeated samples, 95% of all the
confidence intervals that can be constructed will
contain the unknown true parameter
A specific interval either will contain or will
not contain the true parameter
No probability involved in a specific interval
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-15
General Formula
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-16
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
2 Known 2 Unknown
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-17
7.2
Confidence Interval for
(2 Known)
Assumptions
Population variance 2 is known
Population is normally distributed
If population is not normal, use large sample
ME z /2
n
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-20
Finding the Reliability Factor, z/2
Consider a 95% confidence interval:
1 .95
.025 .025
2 2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-22
Intervals and Level of Confidence
Sampling Distribution of the Mean
/2 1 /2
x
Intervals x
extend from x1
100(1-)%
LCL x z x2
n of intervals
to constructed
contain ;
UCL x z
n 100()% do
Confidence Intervals not.
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-23
Example
A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal
population has a mean resistance of 2.20
ohms. We know from past testing that the
population standard deviation is 0.35 ohms.
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-24
Example
(continued)
A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal
population has a mean resistance of 2.20
ohms. We know from past testing that the
population standard deviation is .35 ohms.
Solution: x z
n
2.20 .2068
1.9932 2.4068
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-25
Interpretation
We are 95% confident that the true mean
resistance is between 1.9932 and 2.4068
ohms
Although the true mean may or may not be
in this interval, 95% of intervals formed in
this manner will contain the true mean
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-26
7.3
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
2 Known 2 Unknown
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-27
Students t Distribution
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-28
Confidence Interval for
(2 Unknown)
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-29
Confidence Interval for
( Unknown)
(continued)
Assumptions
Population standard deviation is unknown
Population is normally distributed
If population is not normal, use large sample
Use Students t Distribution
Confidence Interval Estimate:
S S
x t n-1,/2 x t n-1,/2
n n
where tn-1,/2 is the critical value of the t distribution with n-1 d.f. and an
area of /2 in each tail:
P(t n1 t n1,/2 ) /2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-30
Margin of Error
The confidence interval,
S S
x t n-1,/2 x t n-1,/2
n n
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-31
Students t Distribution
d.f. = n - 1
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-32
Students t Distribution
Note: t Z as n increases
Standard
Normal
(t with df = )
t (df = 13)
t-distributions are bell-
shaped and symmetric, but
have fatter tails than the t (df = 5)
normal
0 t
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-33
Students t Table
Confidence t t t Z
Level (10 d.f.) (20 d.f.) (30 d.f.) ____
Note: t Z as n increases
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-35
Example
A random sample of n = 25 has x = 50 and
s = 8. Form a 95% confidence interval for
Confidence
Intervals
2 Known 2 Unknown
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-37
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-38
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Proportion, p
(continued)
Recall that the distribution of the sample
proportion is approximately normal if the
sample size is large, with standard deviation
P(1 P)
P
n
We will estimate this with sample data:
p (1 p )
n
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-39
Confidence Interval Endpoints
Upper and lower confidence limits for the
population proportion are calculated with the
formula
p (1 p ) (1 p )
p
p z /2 P p z /2
n n
where
z/2 is the standard normal value for the level of confidence desired
p is the sample proportion
n is the sample size
nP(1P) > 5
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-40
Example
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-41
Example
(continued)
A random sample of 100 people shows
that 25 are left-handed. Form a 95%
confidence interval for the true proportion
of left-handers.
p (1 p ) (1 p )
p
p z /2 P p z /2
n n
25 .25(.75) 25 .25(.75)
1.96 P 1.96
100 100 100 100
0.1651 P 0.3349
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-42
Interpretation
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-43
7.5
Confidence Intervals
Confidence
Intervals
2 Known 2 Unknown
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-44
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Variance
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 8-45
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Variance
(continued)
2
Where the chi-square value n1, denotes the number for which
P( n21 n21, )
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 8-46
Confidence Intervals for the
Population Variance
(continued)
(n 1)s2 (n 1)s 2
2
2
2
n1, /2 n1, 1 - /2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 8-47
Example
Sample size 17
Sample mean 3004
Sample std dev 74
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 8-48
Finding the Chi-square Values
n = 17 so the chi-square distribution has (n 1) = 16
degrees of freedom
= 0.05, so use the the chi-square values with area
0.025 in each tail:
n21, /2 16
2
, 0.025 28.85
n21, 1 - /2 16
2
, 0.975 6.91
probability probability
/2 = .025 /2 = .025
216
216 = 6.91 216 = 28.85
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 8-49
Calculating the Confidence Limits
The 95% confidence interval is
(n 1)s 2 (n 1)s 2
2
2
2
n1, /2 n1, 1 - /2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-51
Finite Population
Correction Factor
Suppose sampling is without replacement and
the sample size is large relative to the
population size
Assume the population size is large enough to
apply the central limit theorem
Apply the finite population correction factor
when estimating the population variance
Nn
finite population correction factor
N 1
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-54
Estimating the Population Total
Consider a simple random sample of size
n from a population of size N
The quantity to be estimated is the
population total N
An unbiased estimation procedure for the
population total N yields the point
estimate Nx
s 2
(N n)
N x N
2 2 2
n N -1
Nx t n-1,/2N x N Nx t n-1,/2N x
s 2
(N n) 2
2 (22.3) 920
N N
2 2
x
2
(1000) 5724559.6
n N -1 80 999
N x 5724559.6 2392.6
82837.53 N 92362.47
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-60
Chapter Summary
Introduced the concept of confidence
intervals
Discussed point estimates
Developed confidence interval estimates
Created confidence interval estimates for the
mean (2 known)
Introduced the Students t distribution
Determined confidence interval estimates for
the mean (2 unknown)
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-61
Chapter Summary
(continued)
Created confidence interval estimates for the
proportion
Created confidence interval estimates for the
variance of a normal population
Applied the finite population correction factor
to form confidence intervals when the
sample size is not small relative to the
population size
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 7-62