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We can use information about distributions to decide how probable it is that the results of
an experiment looking at variable x support a particular hypothesis about the distribution of
variable x in the population.
= central aim of experimental science
This is how statistical tests work: test a sample distribution (our experimental results)
against a hypothesised distribution, resulting in a p value for how likely it is that we would
obtain our results under the null hypothesis (null hypothesis = there is no effect or
difference between conditions) i.e. how likely it is that our results were a fluke!
e.g. in an experiment I measure RT in two different conditions and find a difference between
conditions. I want to know whether my data can statistically support the hypothesis that
there is a genuine difference in RT between these two conditions in the population as a
whole, i.e. that the data come from a population where the means of the two conditions are
different. The null hypothesis is therefore that the means are the same, and I want a
probability of less than .05 of getting the results we obtained under the null hypothesis
A statistical test allows me to test how likely it is that the sample data
come from a parent population with a particular characteristic
The Normal Distribution
Many continuous variables follow a normal distribution, and it plays a special role
in the statistical tests we are interested in;
P(x)
The x-axis represents the values of a particular
variable
68% of dist. The y-axis represents the proportion of members
of the population that have each value of the
1 s.d. 1 s.d.
variable
The area under the curve represents probability
x e.g. area under the curve between two values on
X
the x-axis represents the probability of an individual
having a value in that range
Mean and standard deviation tell you the basic features of a distribution
mean = average value of all members of the group
standard deviation = a measure of how much the values of individual members vary
in relation to the mean
The normal distribution is symmetrical about the mean
68% of the normal distribution lies within 1 s.d. of the mean
Sample to Population
Testing Hypotheses
z m population mean
Plug in the values, and get a z-value which corresponds to a location on the x-
axis of a standardised normal distribution (m=0, =1)
For the standardised normal distribution we know the probability of any
particular value coming from it (area under the curve)
this is what you read off from a table of z-values
Because we are dealing with the probabilities of hypotheses about our sample,
there is always a chance you are wrong. Choosing the significance level
represents how big you want this chance to be
P<.05 = a 5% chance that you would obtain your result under the null
hypothesis (Type 1 error)
z-tests:
Worked Example
Battery of psychological tests to judge IQ from which we have obtained
distribution:
Mean = 50
S.D. = 10
Represents disrtibution of entire population
We would like to find out probability of various scores, for ex. Which are
those scores that are so high they can only be obtained by 10% of the
population
Need to transform the distribution to a STANDARD NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION:
Thus we now have a z distribution z=X-m = X-50
10
No change in the data since new distribution has same shape + observations
stand in same relation to each other (same as converting inches to
centimeters) we have performed a LINEAR TRANSFORMATION
Now, a score that was 60 is 1, i.e. the score is 1 S.D. above the mean
A z score represents the number of S.D. that observation Xi is above or
below the mean.
t-tests:
Testing Hypotheses About Means
x sample mean
formula: ( x m) n m population mean
t s sample standard deviation
s x
x
n = size of sample
For a z-test you need to know the population mean and s.d. Often you dont know the s.d. of the
hypothesised or comparison population, and so you use a t-test. This uses the sample s.d. instead.
This introduces a source of error, which decreases as your sample size increases
Therefore, the t statistic is distributed differently depending on the size of the sample, like a family of normal
curves. The degrees of freedom (d.f. = sample size 1) represents which of these curves you are relating
your t-value to. There are different tables of p-values for different degrees of freedom.
larger sample = more squashed t-statistic distribution = easier to get significance
Like t-tests, F-tests deal with differences between or among sample means, but with any
number of means (each mean corresponding to a factor)
Q/ do k means differ? A/ yes, if the F value is significant
Q/ how do the k factors influence each other? A/ look at the interaction effects
MS error
The formula compares the variance between and within conditions or factors as
discussed above we wont worry about the derivation! (n.b. MS = mean squares)
If the F statistic is significant, this tells us that the means of the factors differ significantly
=> are not likely to have come from the same population = our variable is having an effect
DRUG
Real Placebo
fMRI:
Acquired
8 measurements, move
2 of each condition
Subjects:
12 healthy volunteers rest
Counterbalanced order
Why do we care?
Statistical tests in SPM
We perform ANOVAs, t-tests, and f-tests when we create a design matrix and specify
contrasts
Reminder: GLM equation to explain our data y
y=Xb+e
X is the design matrix: enter this into SPM to tell program how to divide up the
imaging data into the different conditions
Each element in the matrix represents one condition
Xb+e =y
b are the regressors: Allocate regressors specific values to test specific
hypotheses (i.e. CONTRASTS) between conditions
e = error In this case:
Column1 = right
movement with 1 Y= (b1x1+b2x2+b3x3+b4x4)+e
drug
Column2 = rest 2
with drug
Column3 = right
movement with 3
placebo
Column4 = rest 4
with placebo
Why do we care?
t-tests in SPM
A t-contrast is a linear combination of
parameters: c x b
If we think that 1 regressor in our design
matrix (e.g. b ) could lead to an interesting
1
activation, we compute:
1xb +0xb +0xb +0xb and divide by SD
1 2 3 4