Massachusetts HIV-Testing Example

Test Characteristics
ELISA: wrong on 10% of infected samples
wrong on 5% of uninfected samples
Western Blot: wrong on 5% of infected samples
wrong on 5% of uninfected samples

Prevalence of virus: 0.2%

ELISA Breakdown:

Before ELISA neg ELISA pos

infected 0.002 0.0002 0.0018
uninfected 0.998 0.9481 0.0499
Breakdown after both tests

Before ELISA neg WB neg WB pos

infected 0.002 0.0002 0.00009 0.00171
uninfected 0.998 0.9481 0.047405 0.002495

Out of 100,000 tested: 171 infected and test positive twice

249.5 uninfected and test positive twice

180 infected and test positive on ELISA

4990 uninfected and test positive on ELISA
 Infected
2
.00
.9
98

Uninfected
 Infected &
ELISA Pos
90%
Infected
2 Infected &
.00 10%
ELISA Neg
.9
98

Uninfected
 Infected &
ELISA Pos
90%
Infected
2 Infected &
.00 10%
ELISA Neg

Uninfected &
ELISA Pos
.9

5%
98

Uninfected
95% Uninfected &
ELISA Neg
 Infected &
95% WB Pos
Infected &
ELISA Pos
90% 5% Infected &
Infected WB Neg
2 Infected &
.00 10%
ELISA Neg

Uninfected &
ELISA Pos
.9

5%
98

Uninfected
95% Uninfected &
ELISA Neg
 Infected &
WB Pos
95%
Infected &
ELISA Pos Infected &
90% 5%
WB Neg
Infected
2 Infected &
.00 10%
ELISA Neg
5% Uninfected &
Uninfected & WB Pos
ELISA Pos
.9

5%
98

95
Uninfected % Uninfected &
WB Neg
95
% Uninfected &
ELISA Neg
 Concept AIDS Example Die Example
sample space low-risk population {1,2,3,4,5,6}

event A = {infected individuals} A={2,4,6}

B = {positive on ELISA} B={1,2}

probability P(A) = 0.002 P(A) = 1/2

P(B) = 0.0517 P(B) = 1/3

complement not A = {not infected} not A = {1,3,5}

intersection (A and B) = (A and B) =

{infected and ELISA pos} {2}

union (A or B) = (A or B) =
{infected or ELISA pos} {1,2,4,6}

mutually exclusive A1 = {test pos on both} A1 = {even}

A2 = {test neg on both} A2 = {odd}
complement: P(not A) = 1 - P(A)

Addition rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Conditional probability: P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)

Multiplication rule: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A)