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Mitigation Policies
(with Application of ERB model for India)
P.R. Shukla
Top Down models
Energy Economy linkages
Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price
adjustments
Endogenous determination of prices
Feedback of prices on GDP
Demand endogenously determined
Supply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously
specified
ERB Model : Application for India
Disaggregation by fuel type
Conventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power,
hydroelectric power, solar electric power
Global scale and regional detail
Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-New
Zealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other South
Asian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India
Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095
Four modules
Supply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions
Overview: ERB
Regional
resource
constraints Regional
Energy
Supplies
Technology
and Cost
Char.
Supply
Supply categories
Resource constrained exhaustible
conventional oil and gas
production rates follow logistic paths
Resource constrained renewable
hydro
production rates follow logistic paths
Backstop
unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclear
infinitely elastic supply schedule
Supply by grades
Demand
Population
Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050)
Labour productivity
Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050)
Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency
improvement
Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050)
Fossil fuel resource base
Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels
Assumptions : Non-intervention scenarios
Advance technologies
Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source
Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass
200
Trillion Dollars
150
100
50
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU
ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
Global Carbon emissions: Reference Case
25 US OE CD W es t
JA NZ E E /FS U Region 1990 2095
A CE NP M IDE A S T US 23 12
20 OECD West 17 7
A FR LA
INDIA JANZ 6 3
15 AFR 3 12
EE/FSU 27 12
BtC
LA 4 7
10
MIDEAST 3 4
ACENP 15 35
5 India 3 10
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Global Primary Energy Consumption:
Reference Case
1400
1200
1000
800
EJ
600
400
200
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
1370 EJ 123 EJ
Global Primary Energy Use by Fuel Type:
Reference Case
1600
1200
Exajoules
800
400
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR
Price of traded fuels - IS92a
20
18
16
14
1985 US$/GJ
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
OIL GAS COAL
Energy Intensity IS92a
Global Primary Energy Consumption: Tax Cases
1600
1400
1200
1000
EJ
800
600
400
200
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
140
120
100
Exajoules
80
60
40
20
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax
Global Carbon Emissions Tax Cases
25000
20000
Carbon
15000
Carbon Emissions in India: Tax Cases
3000
2500
bon
2000
ERB Tax Cases - Global v/s India
Global India
Tax Level Carbon Energy Carbon Energy
mitigation (%) reduction (%) mitigation (%) reduction (%)
$10 5 2 4 2
$25 12 5 10 4
$50 24 10 19 7
$100 40 19 30 12
$150 49 26 35 20
Advance Technology
250
200
Exajoules
150
100
50
0
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
$100 Tax
150
100
Exajoules
50
0
2005 2035 2065 2095
150
100
Exajoules
50
0
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
15
10
0
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
200
Thousand tonnes
150
100
50
0
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
2500
2000
Exajoules
1500
1000
500
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year