Pavement Deterioration

Modeling
Dengan berjalannya waktu, struktur perkerasan
akan mengalami kerusakan
Mengetahui bagaimana pola serta kecepatan
kerusakan menjadi kunci dalam pemrograman
pemeliharaan jalan
 Bagaimana
po
kerusakan yang
terjadi?
ISI/PSI/PCI

Tahun
PPM adalah pengembangan model untuk
memprediksi prilaku perkerasan dalam
melayani traffic selama daur hidupnya.
Untuk memprediksi kondisi perkerasan pada
suatu segmen jalan
Untuk memperkirakan tipe dan timing dari
pemeliharaan jalan
Untuk proses optimasi dari suatu network jalan
Untuk dipakai dalam life cycle cost analyses
Regression Analysis
Markov Transition Probabilities
Bayesian Methodology
Pemikiran-pemikiran/prinsip-prinsip dasar
dari model yang akan dikembangkan
Pemilihan bentuk model matematikanya
Peranan statistik dan mekanika dalam
pengembangan model
Data yang dibutuhkan untuk specific
model
Modifikasi yang diperlukan nantinya untuk
memper-hitungkan pengaruh maintenance
pada jalan
Batasan-batasan dari model yang akan
dikembangkan
Database yang cukup lengkap dari in-
service pavements
Memperhitungkan semua variable yang
akan mempengaruhi performance dari
perkerasan
Bentuk fungsional dari model
Model secara statistik dapat
dipertanggung jawabkan dalam hal
akurasinya (r2, RMSE, dll.)
Menghubungkan suatu kejadian dengan
kejadian lainnya
Adanya Hubungan sebab-akibat
Syarat: hubungan secara nalar dapat
dimengerti
Contoh:
Ekonometrika
Hubungan aktifitas ekonomi dengan kebutuhan
prasarana
 Positive Linear Relationship Relationship NOT Linear

Negative Linear Relationship No Relationship

 The population regression model:
Population Random
Population Independent Error
Slope
y intercept Variable term, or
Coefficient
Dependent residual

y 0 1x
Variable

Linear component Random Error

component
Error values () are statistically independent
Error values are normally distributed for any
given value of x
The probability distribution of the errors is
normal
The probability distribution of the errors has
constant variance
The underlying relationship between the x
variable and the y variable is linear
 (continued)

y y 0 1x
Observed Value
of y for xi

i Slope = 1
Predicted Value Random Error
of y for xi
for this x value

Intercept = 0

xi x
The sample regression line provides an estimate of
the population regression line

Estimated Estimate of Estimate of the

(or predicted) the regression regression slope
y value intercept

Independent

y i b0 b1x variable

The individual random error terms ei have a mean of zero

b0 and b1 are obtained by finding the
values of b0 and b1 that minimize the
sum of the squared residuals

e 2
(y y) 2

(y (b 0 b1x)) 2
The formulas for b1 and b0
are:
b1
( x x )( y y )
(x x) 2

algebraic equivalent:

x y
and
xy
b1 n b0 y b1 x
x 2

( x ) 2

n
 USED TO SHOW THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TWO VARIABLES

Linear relationships Curvilinear relationships

y y

Y = f(x)

x x

y y

x x
 (continued)
Strong relationships Weak relationships

y y

x x

y y

x x
 (continued)
No relationship

x
Population correlation coefficient
(rho)
measures the strength of the association between
the variables

Sample correlation coefficient r

an estimate of and is used to measure the
strength of the linear relationship in the sample
observations
y y y

x x x
r = -1 r = -.6 r=0
y y

x x
r = +.3 r = +1
 Sample correlation coefficient:

r
( x x)( y y)
[ ( x x ) ][ ( y y ) ]
2 2

or the algebraic equivalent:

n xy x y
r
[n( x 2 ) ( x )2 ][n( y 2 ) ( y )2 ]
where:
r = Sample correlation coefficient
n = Sample size
x = Value of the independent variable
y = Value of the dependent variable
R2 = portion of the total variation in the
dependent variable that is explained by
variation in the independent variable
 (continued)
Coefficient of determination
SSR sum of squares explained by regression
R
2

SST total sum of squares

Note: In the single independent variable case, the coefficient

of determination is

where:
R r2 2

R2 = Coefficient of determination
r = Simple correlation coefficient
y
R2 = 1

Perfect linear relationship

between x and y:
x
R2 = 1
y 100% of the variation in y is
explained by variation in x

x
R2 = +1
y
0 < R2 < 1

Weaker linear relationship

between x and y:
x
Some but not all of the
y
variation in y is explained
by variation in x

x
 R2 = 0
y
No linear relationship
between x and y:

The value of Y does not

x depend on x. (None of the
R2 = 0
variation in y is explained
by variation in x)
 y y

x x
residuals

x residuals x

Not Linear
Linear
 y y

x x
residuals

x residuals x

Non-constant variance Constant variance

Straightline Extrapolation method
Regresi
Markov Chains
Bayesian
Straight Line Extrapolation

Membutuhkan data
histori
 Very Deterioration
Good Curve

Pavement
Condition

Very
Poor

New Pavement Age Old

Regression Method
 Minor vs. Major Repairs
Minor Repairs
Very
Good Required

Deterioration
Pavement
Condition
Curve
Major
Repairs
Required

Very
Poor

New Pavement Age Old

 Strategies vs. Condition
Very
Good
Routine Maintenance

Preventive Maintenance
Pavement
Condition Rehabilitation

Reconstruction
Very
Poor

New Pavement Age Old

Strategies vs Conditions
Hasil Pengukuran IRI Dari suatu database
hasil pengukuran
Tahun IRI (m/km) kekasaran jalan
2007 2.1 menggunakan
2008 2.2
NAASRA didapatkan
2009 2.5
2010 3
data sebagai berikut.
2011 4 Buatlah model
2012 5 kerusakannnya
2013 6.5
 7 Bagaimana
6 modelnya?
5
IRI (m/km)

4
3
2
1
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tahun
 Model Kerusakan 1 Model Kerusakan 2
7 y = 0.1369x2 - 549.63x + 551655 7
R = 0.999 y = 1E-171e0.1965x
6 6 R = 0.9621

5 5
IRI (m/km)

4 4

IRI (m/km)
3 3

2 2

1 1

0 0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Tahun Tahun
 35

30

25

20
IRI (m/km)

15
IRI
10 IRI 2

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
-5

-10
Tahun