The Worlds Fastest Crash

Course in Statistics
Or, What You Need to Know to Answer
Your Research Question

13 November 2006
 Regression
Answers the question, What is the effect of
(different) (levels of) ___________ on
__________?
First blank is our IV of interest sometimes called the
X variable
Second blank is the DV (aka Y)
All Xs and Ys must vary across observations
Many other statistical techniques exist that
answer research questions.
This one is simple, powerful, and generates
predictions easily. Its also the most frequently used
model for survey data.
 A Regression Model

DV = B0 + B1X1 + B2X2 + B3X3

Formally, a regression asks, What is the

effect on the dependent variable of a one-
unit change in the independent variable?

We enter the dependent variable, the independent variable of

interest (the one in the hypothesis), and also any other
control variables that we suspect influence the outcome.
 Answering the Question
Answers to the
regression question
come as coefficients.
The Bs of the model.
ign
Tell us the slope of the
line that best fits the ureness
pattern of data we
gave it.
Effect of each variable,
ize
holding all other
variables constant
Look for the 3 Ss on
each coefficient.
 1. Sign
Does the coefficient go in the direction our
theory predicted?
+ Positive (or direct) relationship
- Negative (or inverse) relationship
 2. Sureness
The world is not perfect: observations
always have a random component.
How sure are we that the sign we got is
actually the right one?
The points dont line up perfectly.
Our degree of sureness is related to how
closely the points cluster around the
prediction line.
If we had had a slightly different sample,
would the line look different?
 10

An Example: This

10
8

8
6
6
TV

4
4

2
2

0
0

0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Tea Tea
 Compared to This
35

35
30

30
25

25
P160

20

20
15

15
10

10

5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30
P260 P260
 3. Size
Size matters, but its not the only thing.
Regression coefficients tell us the effect on the
DV of a one-unit increase in the independent
variable, holding all other variables constant.
In other words, the units matter! A variable like age
might have a very small coefficient if the units of age
are one year.
If the variables coefficient is correctly signed,
and it meets conventional levels of sureness,
then you can compare the substantive effects of
different IVs.
 Getting the Answers in Stata
Download the dataset to your computers
desktop. Double-click on the file to open it.
In the command box, type reg then use
the Variables box to select your DV first,
then any IVs or controls.
Add an if string if necessary.
Hit enter to run. Results display in the
Results window.
Interpreting the Results

Sureness shortcut:
we are pretty sure
the sign is right if
this number is
smaller than 0.05
 Your Mission
With a couple other people from your group,
formulate a specific hypothesis in which one or
more independent variables affects a dependent
variable.
Write out the model. Indicate which direction you
hypothesize for the coefficients.
Run the model. Did your answer agree with your
predictions?
If not, are some variables perhaps missing from your
model?
Prepare a slide or two, or a Word document, to
share your conclusions with the group.
 Getting the Answers in Excel
Sort the data table by values of your intended
DV.
Go to Tools, Data Analysis
Scroll down and select Regression, then click
OK.
Identify your dependent variable.
Click on the range selection icon at the corner of the
text box to highlight on the data sheet. Start where the
values of interest begin (i.e., omit -9, -8, .).
Remember, observations are ROWS now. You should
be highlighting part of a column. Make a note of what
rows you choose.
 Getting Answers, Part 2
Select your independent variables.
Click the range selection icon to return to the
data sheet.
You must select the same range of
observations as the DV.
To select non-contiguous IVs, highlight one,
press and hold control (on PCs) then highlight
the next.
Click OK. The results will be presented in
another tab.