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Trip Distribution

Additional suggested reading: Chapter 5 of Ortuzar

& Willumsen, third edition

November 2004

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Replicate spatial pattern of trip making

Account for spatial separation among origins and destinations (proximity in terms of time, cost, & other factors)

Account for attractiveness among TAZs

Reflect human behavior

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Trip Distribution

Convert Production and Attraction Tables into Origin -

Destination (O - D) Matrices

Destinations

TAZ P A

Origins 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum

1 15 22

1 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 O1

2 13 6

2 T21 T22 T23 T24 T25 T26 O2

3 26 5

3 T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 O3

4 18 52

4 T41 T42 T43 T44 T45 T46 O4

5 8 2

5 T51 T52 T53 T54 T55 T56 O5

6 13 6

6 T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T66 O6

Sum 93 93

Sum D1 D 2 D3 D 4 D5 D6

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Crude OD

Production Attraction Calculation

Zone ID P A O=D=(P+A)/2

1 15 22 18.5

2 13 6 9.5

3 26 5 15.5

4 18 52 35

5 8 2 5

6 13 6 9.5

Total 93 93 93

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

General Equation:

Tij = Ti P(Tj)

Tij = calculated trips from zone i to zone j

Ti = total trips originating at zone i

P(Tj) = probability measure that trips will be attracted

to zone j

Constraints:

Singly Constrained

Sumi Tij = Dj OR Sumj Tij = Oi

Doubly Constrained

Sumi Tij = Dj AND Sumj Tij = Oi

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Growth Factor / Fratar Model

Tij = Ti (Tj / T)

Tij = present trips from zone i to zone j

Ti = total trips originating at zone i

Tj = total trips ending at zone j

T = total trips in the entire study

Tij* = Tij (Fi Fj) / F

Fi = T i * / T i

Fj = T j * / T j

F = T* / T

* = estimated future trips

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Gravity Model You can consider this as the

probability spatial distribution

Tij = Ti a P(Tj)

Aj / Cij

a

Sum (Ax / Cix)

Tij = trips from zone i to zone j

Ti = total trips originating at zone i

Aj = attraction factor at j

Ax = attraction factor at any zone x

Cij = travel friction from i to j expressed as a generalized cost

function

Cix = travel friction from i to any zone x expressed as a

generalized cost function

a = friction exponent or restraining influence

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Intervening - Opportunities Model

Tij = trips from zone i to zone j

T = trip destination opportunities closer in time to zone

i than those in zone j

Ti = trip end opportunities in zone i

Tj = trip end opportunities in zone j

L = probability that any destination opportunity will be

chosen

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Model Comparison

Model Advantages Disadvantages

Growth Factor Simple Does not reflect changes in the

Easy to balance origin and frictions between zones

destination trips at any Does not reflect changes in the

zone network

Gravity Specific account of friction Requires extensive calibration

and interaction between Long iterative process

zones

Intervening - Does not require origin - Accounts for only relative

Opportunities destination data changes in time - distance

Claimed to bear a better relationship between zones

fit to actual traffic Arbitrary choice of

probability factor

New: Destination choice models build on intervening opportunities

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

1. Create Shortest Path Matrix

- Minimize Link Cost between Centroids

2. Estimate Friction Factor Parameters

- Function of Trip Length Characteristics by Trip Purpose

3. Calculate Friction Factor Matrix

4. Convert Productions and Attractions to Origins and

Destinations

5. Calculate Origin - Destination Matrix

6. Enforce Constraints on O - D Matrix

- Iterate Between Enforcing Total Origins and Destinations

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Matrix of Minimum Generalized Cost from any

Zone i to any Zone j (see OW p. 153)

Distance, Time, Monetary Cost, Waiting Time, Transfer

Time, etc.. may be used in Generalized Cost

Time or Distance Often Used

Matrix Not Necessarily TAZ TAZ ID

Symmetric (Effect of ID 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16

One - Way Streets) 2 C21 C22 C23 C24 C25 C26

3 C31 C32 C33 C34 C35 C36

4 C41 C42 C43 C44 C45 C46

5 C51 C52 C53 C54 C55 C56

6 C61 C62 C63 C64 C65 C66

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1 2 3 4 5 6

2 2 1 1.5 2 3 4

3 3 3 2 2 2 3

4 4 4 3 1 2 3

5 5 5 4 3 1 2

6 6 6 5 4 4 1

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Exponential:

f(cij) = e- c (cij) c>0

Inverse Power:

f(cij) = cij- b b>0

Gamma:

f(cij) = a cij- b e- c (cij) a > 0, b > 0, c > 0

Trip Purpose a b c

HBW 28507 0.020 0.123

HBP 139173 1.285 0.094

NHB 219113 1.332 0.010

ref. NCHRP 365 / TransCAD UTPS Manual pg. 80

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

travel times alone

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1.349859 1.822119 2.459603 3.320117 4.481689 6.049647

2 1.822119 1.349859 1.568312 1.822119 2.459603 3.320117

3 2.459603 2.459603 1.822119 1.822119 1.822119 2.459603

4 3.320117 3.320117 2.459603 1.349859 1.822119 2.459603

5 4.481689 4.481689 3.320117 2.459603 1.349859 1.822119

6 6.049647 6.049647 4.481689 3.320117 3.320117 1.349859

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Matrix of Friction from any Zone i to any Zone j, by Trip Purpose

Each Cell of a Friction Factor Matrix is a Function of the Corresponding Cell of the Shortest Path Matrix

Each Trip Purpose has a separate Friction Factor Matrix

Because Trip Making

Behavior Changes for

Each Trip Purpose

TAZ TAZ ID

ID 1 2 3 4 5 6

1

2 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F16

3 F21 F22 F23 F24 F25 F26

4 F31 F32 F33 F34 F35 F36

5 F41 F42 F43 F44 F45 F46

6 F51 F52 F53 F54 F55 F56

F61 F62 F63 F64 F65 F66

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Trip Conversion(Approximate)

Home Based Trips: Non - Home Based Trips:

Oi = (Pi + Ai) / 2 Oi = Pi

Di = (Pi + Ai) / 2 Di = Ai

Oi = origins in zone i (by trip purpose)

Di = destinations in zone i (by trip purpose)

Pi = productions in zone i (by trip purpose)

Ai = attractions in zone i (by trip purpose)

Note: This Only Works for a 24 Hour Time Period

If our models are for one period in a day we prefer to

work directly with Origins-Destinations

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

O - D Matrix Calculation

Calculate Initial Matrix By Gravity Equation, by Trip

Purpose

Each Cell has a Different Friction, Found in the

Corresponding Cell of the Friction Factor Matrix

Enforce Constraints in Iterative Process

Sum of Trips in Row i Must Equal Origins of TAZ i

If Not Equal, Trips are Adjusted Proportionally

Sum of Trips in Column j Must Equal Destinations of TAZ j

If Not Equal, Trips are Adjusted Proportionally

Iterate Until No Adjustments Required

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

O - D Matrix Example:

Destinations

Origins 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum

1 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 O1

2 T21 T22 T23 T24 T25 T26 O2

3 T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 O3

4 T41 T42 T43 T44 T45 T46 O4

5 T51 T52 T53 T54 T55 T56 O5

6 T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T66 O6

Sum D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Attraction/friction matrix

Aj/friction factor Table

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total

1 16.298 3.293 2.033 15.662 0.446 0.992 38.724

2 12.074 4.445 3.188 28.538 0.813 1.807 50.865

3 8.945 2.439 2.744 28.538 1.098 2.439 46.203

4 6.626 1.807 2.033 38.523 1.098 2.439 52.526

5 4.909 1.339 1.506 21.142 1.482 3.293 33.670

6 3.637 0.992 1.116 15.662 0.602 4.445 26.453

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Gravity Model Probability

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total

1 0.421 0.085 0.052 0.404 0.012 0.026 1

2 0.237 0.087 0.063 0.561 0.016 0.036 1

3 0.194 0.053 0.059 0.618 0.024 0.053 1

4 0.126 0.034 0.039 0.733 0.021 0.046 1

5 0.146 0.040 0.045 0.628 0.044 0.098 1

6 0.137 0.037 0.042 0.592 0.023 0.168 1

Aj / frictionij

Sum (Ax / frictionix)

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

TIJ iteration 1 Target

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Oi

1 7.8 1.6 1.0 7.5 0.2 0.5 18.5 18.5

2 2.3 0.8 0.6 5.3 0.2 0.3 9.5 9.5

3 3.0 0.8 0.9 9.6 0.4 0.8 15.5 15.5

4 4.4 1.2 1.4 25.7 0.7 1.6 35 35

5 0.7 0.2 0.2 3.1 0.2 0.5 5 5

6 1.3 0.4 0.4 5.6 0.2 1.6 9.5 9.5

Total 19.5 5.0 4.5 56.8 1.9 5.3 93

Dj 18.5 9.5 15.5 35 5 9.5

Ratio 0.949099 1.907311 3.47064 0.615986 2.630148 1.77888

For each cell value we apply the gravity equation once - in this iteration -

after this we use the ratio to adjust the values in the cells - until row and

column targets are satisfied - see also OW - chapter 5

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

TIJ iteration 2

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Oi Ratio

1 7.4 3.0 3.4 4.6 0.6 0.8 19.8 18.5 0.935588

2 2.1 1.6 2.1 3.3 0.4 0.6 10.1 9.5 0.943096

3 2.8 1.6 3.2 5.9 1.0 1.5 15.9 15.5 0.973293

4 4.2 2.3 4.7 15.8 1.9 2.9 31.8 35 1.100092

5 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.9 0.6 0.9 5.2 5 0.956075

6 1.2 0.7 1.4 3.5 0.6 2.8 10.2 9.5 0.932966

Total 18.5 9.5 15.5 35 5 9.5 93

Using the ratios from before we succeed in getting the targets for the sums

of cells for each column - look at the other ratios

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

TIJ iteration 3

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total

1 6.9 2.8 3.2 4.3 0.5 0.8 18.5

2 2.0 1.5 1.9 3.1 0.4 0.6 9.5

3 2.8 1.5 3.1 5.7 0.9 1.4 15.5

4 4.6 2.5 5.2 17.4 2.1 3.2 35

5 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.8 5

6 1.2 0.6 1.3 3.2 0.5 2.6 9.5

Total 18.1 9.3 15.4 35.6 5.0 9.4 93

Ratio 1.020289 1.016843 1.004978 0.982477 0.991224 1.007046

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

TIJ iteration 4

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Oi Ratio

1 7.1 2.9 3.2 4.2 0.5 0.8 18.6 18.5 0.993094

2 2.1 1.5 2.0 3.0 0.4 0.6 9.5 9.5 0.997665

3 2.8 1.5 3.1 5.6 0.9 1.4 15.5 15.5 1.000101

4 4.7 2.6 5.2 17.1 2.1 3.2 34.9 35 1.003991

5 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.8 5.0 5 1.001637

6 1.2 0.6 1.3 3.2 0.5 2.7 9.5 9.5 1.000214

Total 18.5 9.5 15.5 35 5 9.5 93

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Multiple Matrices

For each trip purpose obtain different Origin-

Destination Tij matrices

Usually these are 24 hour Matrices (number of trips

from one zone to another in a 24 hour period)

In assignment we will need a matrix of vehicles

moving from a zone to another during a specific

period (peak usually) in a typical day

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Combine (Add) O - D Matrices for Various Trip Purposes

Scale Matrix for Peak Hour

Scale by Percent of Daily Trips Made in the Peak Hour

0.1 Often Used (10% of daily trips)

Scale Matrix for Vehicle Trips

Scale by Inverse of Ridership Ratio to Convert Person Trips to

Vehicle Trips

0.95 to 1 Often Used

Note: Mode Split Process / Models More Accurate, - we will

explore them in class

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