UNCLASSIFIED

U.S. ARMY

Center for Army Analysis Wargame

Analysis Model (C-WAM)

Presentation for the MORS Wargame CoP

20 APR 16
Daniel Mahoney
(703) 806-5645
Daniel.p.mahoney4.civ@mail.mil
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 C-WAM Background
U.S. ARMY

C-WAM development grew from the requirement for campaign

analysts to more fully understand the theater backdrop,
engaged forces and concept of the operation (CONOP) of a
new theater campaign before coding it into CAAs high-
resolution theater model: JICM
The original C-WAM was very ground-centric and based on the
wargame process used by the 1st Cavalry Division Plans shop
Engagement with a variety of joint and sister service HQs over
the years (USPACOM, USEUCOME, COMPCFLT, USEUCOM,
PACAF, USAFE, SOCPAC, etc.) has greatly enhanced C-WAMs
representation of joint capabilities
All C-WAM updates and enhancements are vetted by the CAA
Campaign Analysis (CA) division wargame team members
before they are included
After ten years of development, C-WAM is likely the most
complete joint, operational-level wargaming system in the DoD

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C-WAM Basics
U.S. ARMY

The C-WAM is manual, computer aided, time-step, man-in-the-loop,

force-on-force simulation methodology (C-WAM Battle Tracker System
has become a necessity)
The C-WAM features two (or more) opposing teams simulating combat
on a map-based playing surface regulated by game controllers
The Process uses aggregated tactical outcomes to drive
operational level insights
The Process is completely free play within the constraints of a the
rules and each teams approved course of action
The competing teams control assets from across the full spectrum of
joint and combined forces
The simulation focuses on the Phase II (Seize the Initiative) and
Phase III (Dominate) portions of operational campaigns.
The simulation is currently designed to execute 24 or 72 hour time
steps (Nine-day and twenty-seven day time step procedures are under
development).
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C-WAM as a Tool
U.S. ARMY

Uses of C-WAM:
Evaluating (and comparing) campaign-level operational courses
of action (COA) to determine feasibility, suitability and
acceptability (e.g., Defense Planning Scenarios or COCOM
OPLANS)
Aiding campaign modelers in understanding the operational flow
and critical events of a campaign before coding it into a high
resolution computer model (e.g., JICM)
Serving as a test bed to explore the potential operational-level
impacts of emerging technologies (yields mainly qualitative
insights)

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Recent C-WAM Use Examples

U.S. ARMY
COCOM Development Support:
USPACOM OPLAN 507X Devel. Wargame 1 (Nov 13)
COMPACFLT OPLAN 507X Devel. Wargame (Feb 14)
USPACOM OPLAN 507X Devel. Wargame 2 (Aug 14)
SOCPAC OPLAN 507X Devel. Wargame (Nov 14)
USEUCOM OPLAN 4020 Devel. Wargame (Jan 16)
DPS Development Support:
Army G3, Scenario 6 Devel. Wargame (Jun 12)
Army G3, Scenario 3.1 Devel. Wargame (May 13 / Mar 14)
Army G3, Scenario 3.0 Devel. Wargame (Jul 14)
Army G3/Joint Staff, Scenario 7 Devel. Wargame (Apr 15)
Emerging Technology Exploration:
USARPAC SCO Technology Wargame (Aug 15)
Army G3, LRRDDP-GC Tech Wargame (May 16)
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Typical C-WAM Setup

U.S. ARMY

White
Cell
Work Global Reference Map
Area
Blue Team Planning Area

Blue Recorder

Main
Theater Main Recorder
Green Team Planning Area
Map

Red Recorder

Red Team Planning Area

Naval
Subsurface
Map AOR Detail Maps

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C-WAM Sequence
U.S. ARMY

All actions in a C-WAM turn are conceptually occurring near-

simultaneously, but in practice we must step through them in a
logical, linear sequence:
1) Determine Weather

2) Cyber/Space/EW Operations

3) ISR Operations

4) Integrated Air Defense System Allocation

5) Strategic Deep Strike Missions

6) Determine Air Superiority

7) Strategic Deployment

8) Logistical Sufficiency Check

9) Naval Combat

10) Tactical Deep Strike Missions

11) Ground Combat

12) Post Combat

13) Post-turn Hot Wash

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Step 1 Determine Weather

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to estimate the impact of an AORs natural weather

patterns on a campaign
There are three climate types available: Dry, Moderate, Rainy
There are three weather states available: Clear, Cloudy, Storm
The climate type governs the distribution of weather states
The weather state effects:
ISR System effectiveness
Ground and Naval unit movement speed
Air sortie generation (fixed wing and helo)
Naval surface combat
Air to ground weapons delivery
Chemical weapons
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Step 2 Cyber/Space/EW Operations

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to provide an estimate of the effects of successful cyber, space

and electronic warfare (EW) operations on a campaign
The process assumes that the impacts of myriad tactical level operations
across the electronic domains can be aggregated into point estimates of
the theater-wide effect
A successful operation is defined as a disruption of the oppositions
efforts in a domain (cyber, space or EW)
The methodology assumes that a force is minimally effected by a
disruption in any one electronic domain but that the impact grows rapidly
as additional domains are effected:
Disruption in any one domain produces a tactical effect; in any two
an operational effect and in all three a strategic effect
Study leads must consult with experts to determine the correct
disruption probability estimates on each side
In force-on-force situations (e.g., ground combat) the overall impact of
electronic domain degrades is determined by the net of the two sides
degrade levels
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Step 3 Theater ISR Operations

U.S. ARMY
Purpose: to generate an acceptable estimate of each sides ability to develop targeting
level data on the opponents forces and critical installations
The ISR methodology is a compromise between the perfect knowledge (single map)
and zero-base knowledge (multiple map) wargaming systems
The base ISR assumption is that a single, point-estimate can be made for the
effectiveness of the ISR system across the ISR
Can have a unique detection probability for the ground, maritime and air domains
The detection probabilities can change each game turn as ISR capacity increases
or decreases
The base detection probabilities are effected by the weather state
The umpire can override the system detection routine to account for special
situations (e.g., EMCON operations, localized detection arrays)
Players can see all forces deployed in the AOR (except subs) but can only act on
those targeted by the ISR system
All units in contact are automatically targeted
Partisans and SOF strategic reconnaissance (SR) teams can provide real-time
targeting data
Fixed facilities are assumed to be known and pre-targeted
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Step 4 Integrated Air Defense System
(IADS) Allocation
U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to provide a means of pre-assigning strategic SAM coverage within

the Battle Tracker system to expedite deep strike operations
Strategic air defense systems are a critical enabler of all theater operations
and as such are also primary targets
Many nations (e.g., Russia and China) have extensive IADS
The proliferation of threat AD systems provides for complex coverage
which must be realistically assigned
Working through the coverage dynamically each turn bogs down the
wargame flow unacceptably
Making IADS allocation a formal turn sequence step allows it to be done in
detail once up front, and then adjusted at the margin thereafter
Detailed IADs coverage assignment is limited to long range and key medium
range SAM systems and includes:
Mutual support between AD units
Area coverage of ground units at the division and corps level
Coverage of airbases and key installations
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Step 5 Strategic Deep Strike
Operations
U.S. ARMY
Purpose: to provide an estimate of the impact of deep strikes against key strategic
systems and infrastructure on a campaign
Deep strike operations are segregated into two categories based on entity
targeted: strategic and tactical
Strategic targets have theater-wide influence (e.g. APODS, SPODS, Strat
IADS, fuel depots)
Tactical targets are typically ground units, ships and individual aircraft
Deep strikes on strategic targets are executed early in the turn because they can
effect multiple aspects of the joint fight
Deep strikes are typically made with a variety of penetrators including tactical
ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, stand-off weapons, fixed wing aircraft and rocket
artillery
Deep strike penetrators must potentially pass through combat air patrol (CAP) and
IADS gates enroute to their targets. These gates have the ability to reduce the
effectiveness of the deep strikes
The effects of deep strikes are adjudicated using the C-WAM Deep Strike Table
Targeting latency impacts strike effectiveness (real-time vs. lag-time)
Munition precision impacts strike effectiveness (precision vs non-precision)
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Step 6 Determine Air Superiority

U.S. ARMY
Purpose: to determine control of airspace throughout the AOR and thus establish
the dynamics of theater deep strikes and air-ground ops
The Air Superiority step has three sub steps:
Generate the air tasking order (ATO) for each command
Assign combat air patrol (CAP) flights to specific air regions
Execute air-air combat to decide control of disputed air regions
During ATO generation, commanders assign available sorties to one of five mission
types: Air-air (CAP), Air Interdiction (AI), Close Air Support (CAS), Escort and SEAD.
This process is Battle Tracker assisted.
During CAP assignment, commanders physically place CAP markers (4-ship, 3-ship
or 2-ship) on the map to cover desired air regions
The CAP markers establish the instantaneous sortie in an air region
In places where competitive sides have collocated CAP markers, local air superiority
is determined by the C-WAM air-air combat process.
Air breathing strike penetrators (CMs, FW aircraft, etc.) may attack through enemy
controlled airspace but they are subject to potential loss through a CAP gate.
The negative effects of a CAP gate can be mitigated by assigning escort sorties to
AI packages or decoy missiles to CM salvos
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Step 7 Strategic Deployment

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to provide an estimate for the coordination, vulnerability

and time-distance issues associated with the arrival of new forces
into a theater over time
During this step forces entering the AOR from outside of the theater
are arrived at assigned sea and air ports and of debarkation
(SPODs & APODs) in accordance with their deployment timelines
Arriving forces must go through a formal reception, staging,
integration and onward movement (RSOI) process (2-3 days)
A&S PODs may be degraded by strategic deep strikes (Step 5)
which can in turn delay the RSOI process
Forces can be targeted at their PODs as they are going through
RSOI
Degraded PODs may conduct repairs and recover over time

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Step 8 Logistical Sufficiency Check

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to provide a rudimentary estimate for the logistical

supportability of a campaign (ground ops) and provide for the
theater resupply of critical high-value, low density munitions
Ground campaigns are heavily dependent on their lines of
communications (LoC), especially when on the offensive
If the size of a ground force operating along a LOC is too large for
the LOCs throughput capacity then the combat potential of the force
will be necessarily diminished.
Bad weather can degrade a previously sufficient LOC
Enemy action can interdict a LOC
Combat reversals can force additional units onto a nearly
saturated LOC
The Logistical Sufficiency step is also the place in the game where a
study lead may decide to allow for the strategic level resupply of key
weapons (AMRAAM, Patriot, etc.) from the world wide inventory if
theater stocks become depleted
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Step 9 Naval Combat

U.S. ARMY
Purpose: to provide an estimate of the nature of theater maritime operations and their
impact on the campaign
C-WAM naval operations occur in three domains: air, surface and subsurface
Naval combatants are represented at the individual ship or boat level
Air and surface operations are tracked in the open on the main theater map.
Subsurface operations are tracked on a separate, sequestered map
Naval operations follow a move-shoot, move-shoot format (atk then def)
The naval combat step covers the full spectrum of maritime operations:
Air to surface
Surface to surface
Surface to subsurface (and subsurface to surface)
Subsurface to subsurface
Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA)
Long range land attack
Naval mines
Naval munitions loadouts (and consumption) are tracked for each ship
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Step 10 Tactical Deep Strikes

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: provide an estimate of the ability of deep fires against

ground forces to shape the ground war at the operational level
Tactical deep strikes follow the same procedures as strategic deep
strikes except that they are conducted against tactical ground units
Such strikes may be executed by any deep strike system: TBMs,
CMs, long range artillery (LRA), and FW aircraft
All strike packets are potentially subject to CAP and IADS gates
depending on local air superiority, air defense laydown and
munitions type
CMs and standoff weapons (SOWs) may be launched from
outside of intercept range
All LR&MR IADS may fire twice per turn once during the
strategic strike turn and once during the defense of ground units
Tactical deep strikes are usually essential to setting the conditions
for success during the Step 11 Ground Combat step
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Step 11 Ground Combat

U.S. ARMY
Purpose: to provide an estimate of the nature of theater ground operations and their
impact on the campaign
C-WAM ground operations are mainly conducted at the brigade level
Ground operations follow the move-shoot, move-shoot format
The ground combat step covers the full spectrum of ground ops:
Atk vs hasty, prepared or fortified defenses
Attack geometry matters (front, flank, rear)
Force multipliers available (CAS, minefields, etc.)
Vertical envelopment
Amphibious operations
Joint-fires only attacks
Ground battle adjudicator produces attrition and movement results
Covering force, strongpoint passage of lines actions represented
Chemical and tactical weapons effects (along with decon) available
Ground units below 50% strength can defend only; below 30% removed
Maintenance and medical reconstitution effects included (default 5% per day)
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Step 12 Post Combat

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to provide an estimate of the indirect impacts of the

campaign on the AOR
C-WAM includes provisions to account for several non-combat
situations
Refugee Flows
Impact on LoCs
Refugee control requirements
Stabilization Requirements
Generalized strategic consumption of combat assets
Security of high value & WMD assets
Timing and strategic consumption of combat assets

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Step 13 Post Turn Hot Wash

U.S. ARMY

Purpose: to capture critical events and insights uncovered during

the current game turn
Quick review of the turn
Typically conducted by the Study Director
Beginning of the analytic process

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