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Clifford Mass
University of Washington
Global Warming 101
The Earth With No Atmosphere
(infrared)
Partly
(infrared)
Greenhouse Gases Make the Earth Warmer by Slowing the Loss of Infrared Radiation
Greenhouse Gases Warm the
Earth in a Similar Way That
Blankets Warm Us at Night
The Problem:
Rapidly Rising Greenhouse
Gases Due to Mankind
Gases Trapped in Ice Gives Us a History of the
Gases in the Atmosphere
But it is worse than that
There are a number of natural amplifiers
of mankinds emission of greenhouse
gases.
The warming due to increased carbon
dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse
gases will cause more water to be
evaporated from the earths oceans.
Amplifier
The amount of evaporation increases with
temperature.
Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse
gas and thus causes even MORE warming.
This produces a positive feedback.
But it gets
even worse
Warming temperatures melt snow and ice.
Snow and ice help cool the planet because they
reflect much of the suns radiation.that is why
you need sun glasses while skiing.
As the snow melts less radiation is reflected to
space and more is absorbed.
Thus, the earth gets warmer, which melts more
snow.
Another positive feedback!
Is Global Warming Already
Happening?
Finding the global warming signal is made more
difficult because the earths climate has a certain
amount of natural variability.
Also the warming due to man was relatively
small before the middle of last century before the
large increase in fossil fuel usage.
The consensus of most atmospheric scientists is
that some global warming signal due to man is
now evident.
Eleven of the twelve warmest years
in the past 150 years have
occurred in the past twelve years
(1995-2006)
These photographs, taken in 1928 and 2000, show how South
Cascade Glacier in the Washington Cascade Mountains has
retreated over time.
But what about the future?
The Technology of Prediction
Atmospheric scientists use complex climate
prediction modelscalled General Circulation
ModelsGCMSto predict the future climate.
These models are similar to weather forecast
models, but allow the gases in the atmosphere
to change.
They also simulate the evolution of the oceans.
Have to assume the future emission of
greenhouse gases by mankinda major
uncertainty.
These models are not perfect and cannot exactly
replicate the current climate.but they are close
and getting better each year.
Details on Current Study: GCM
Which Scenario Will Mankind Follow?
Now
Global Warming Causes Snow level to Rise
Resulting In Absorption of Solar Energy on
Melted Slopes
Solar Radiation
Future =WARMING
Why Relative Cooling West of
Cascades in Spring?