Alaska Conservation Solutions

Alaska Conservation Solutions
2009
THE GREATEST THREAT

2009
Project of The Ocean Foundation
The Greatest Threat
“Climate change is
the most severe
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams
problem that we
are facing today.”
Sir David King

Former Chief Scientist for the UK
Government
Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved

Photo: Amanda Byrd/Canadian Ice
Service
The Greatest Threat
“No other single issue

presents such a
clear and present danger

to the future welfare of
the world’s poor.”
Christian Aid
The Greatest Threat
“There is no doubt in
my mind that climate
change is one of the
greatest threats facing
humanity today.”
Markku Niskala
Secretary-General of the Red Cross
January 2008
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo

The Greatest Threat
“Global warming is a brutal
and urgent reality...the
greatest threat hanging
over the future of mankind.”
Former French President Jacques Chirac
“A great nation like the

United States has the duty
to not obstruct the fight
against global warming but,
on the contrary, to head
this struggle because what
is at stake is the future of
all humanity.”
French President Nicolas Sarkozy

The Greatest Threat
“Things are getting

desperate enough
now that we need to
throw away our
conservatism and
just act.”
Dr. Terry Chapin, UAF
Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com

Outline
I. Global Warming
Overview
II. The Evidence in
Alaska
III. Global
Cataclysmic
Concerns
IV. What We Can Do
magazine covers
courtesy of Chris Rose
Case Closed
“We believe that the science is quite compelling
and that climate change is certainly attributed to
human activity and to the substantial use of
fossil fuels.”
ConocoPhillips
April 2007
“When 98% of scientists agree, who is Shell to

say, ‘let’s debate the science’ [about global
warming]?” Shell Oil
November 2006
“Recognizing the risk of climate change, we are

taking actions to improve efficiency and reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in our operations.”
Exxon Mobil
December 2006
What We Can Do
US Climate Action Partnership:
2009
“The United States faces an urgent
need to …take meaningful action
to slow, stop, and reverse GHG
emissions to address climate
change.”
“Accumulating science shows that

the impacts of global warming are
occurring sooner than anticipated.
If the risks of serious adverse
impacts of GHG emissions are to
be minimized, prompt and
aggressive emission
reductions …are necessary,
»US CAP
2009
Case Really Closed
“The evidence is sufficient that we

should move towards the most
effective possible steps to reduce
carbon loading of the atmosphere,
and to do it urgently.”
Newt Gingrich
Former House Speaker
2007
Global Warming Basics
2500+ SCIENTIFIC EXPERT REVIEWERS

800+ CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS AND
450+ LEAD AUTHORS FROM
130+ COUNTRIES
6 YEARS WORK
1 REPORT WINNER OF THE

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since

the mid-20th century is very likely [90%] due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report
“There is an international scientific consensus

that most of the warming observed over the last
50 years is attributable to human causes.”
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), 2004
Global Warming Basic
History of Discovery
“Greenhouse gases”
(e.g. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, CFC’s) trap heat in the earth’s
atmosphere.
Greenhouse
gases in
Solar energy
n
atmosphere
iatio
Ra d d
passes through
re
I nf ra
Science
Radiant understood
heat is since 1859 - John
Tyndall
trapped
Diagrams: Jennifer Allen
Diagrams © Jennifer Allen
CO2: The Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant
C + O2 CO2
(Combustion)
Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels

produces carbon dioxide
CO2: Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant

 Humans have
1000 Years of CO2 and
increased carbon
dioxide (CO2) in the Global Temperature Change
1.8
atmosphere by more
Global Temperature Change (deg F)

380
than 37% since the 1.4
1.1 CO2
360
Industrial
CO2 Concentration (ppm)

CO2
Revolution. 0.7 340
(NOAA 2008) Temperature
0.4 320
 The most carbon CH4
0 300
dioxide (385 ppm) in
-0.4
800,000 years (Prof. 280
Thomas Blunier, Univ. of -0.7
Copenhagen; Monaco Declaration
2008) -1.1
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Year Source: ACIA 2004
Jennifer Allen graphic
Temperature Measurements
“Warming of the
climate system is
UNEQUIVOCAL”
(IPCC 2007)
Top 11 warmest
years on record have
all occurred in the last
12 years
(IPCC 2007)
2006 was warmest .

year on record
in continental US
(NOAA 1/07)
2007 was warmest

year on record
in North America
(NOAA 1/08)
2008 eighth warmest

year on record (National
Climatic Data Center)
NOAA
Pollution is the Primary Cause

 What contributes to global warming?
Primarily CO2
Global Warming Basi
What do these pollutants do? – Global Fever

Greenhouse gases make the earth too hot, just like:
> sleeping under a heavy blanket in the summertime
> wearing a parka that is too thick
Our atmospheric “blanket” or “parka” is over 37% “thicker”

than it used to be
Thinner blanket
is “just right.”
Thicker blanket
traps too
much heat.
Weather vs. Climate

“Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is
about weather; the ratio of shorts to long underwear in the drawer
is about climate.” Charles Wohlforth ~ The Whale and the Supercomputer
1950 2008
Weather vs. Climate
Photo courtesy of Parker Rittgers / ADN reader submission

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”
Mark Twain
US
Service
National
Weather
The Smoking Gun
Natural factors only Human factors only

Courtesy of Woods Hole Research Center

The Smoking Gun
Natural factors only BOTH Human factors only

Courtesy of
Woods Hole
Research
Center
Alaska is Ground Zero

Changes in physical and biological systems and
Surface surface
Air Temperature
temperatureTrends 1942-2003
1970-2004
In past 50 years,
Alaska:
Temperatures have
increased
4oF overall
(National Assessment
Synthesis Team)
Worldwide:
Temperatures have
increased
slightly more
than 1oF
IPCC, 2007
(IPCC 2007)
Temperature Change oC
1970-2004
Chapman and Walsh, 2004 Chapman and Walsh, 2004
-1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5

Future Temperatures in Alaska
Why has Alaska warmed the most?

The Albedo Effect
 Snow and sea ice

reflect 85-90% of sun’s
Increased
energy melting of
snow
and sea ice
 Ocean surface and
dark soil reflect only More dark
Land or
10-20% water earth
and ocean
(ACIA 2004) warms surface is
faster exposed
More of
sun’s heat
energy is
absorbed
It’s like wearing a white shirt v. a black shirt
Why has Alaska warmed the most?

Other Factors:
(ACIA 2004)
1) Albedo effect
2) More energy goes directly into
warming
than into evaporation
3) Atmosphere layer is thinner
in the Arctic
4) Increased heat
transfer from
oceans as sea ice
retreats
5) Alterations in
ACIA Graphic atmospheric
and ocean circulation
Impacts in Alaska
Impacts of Warming in Alaska
1. Melting ice, glaciers
NOAA photo
and permafrost
2. Animals
3. Wetlands and forests
Columbia University photo

4. Weather and storms
5. People and culture
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice

 23% smaller than
previous minimum; 39%
smaller than average
 Ice 53% thinner in region
of North Pole between 2001
and 2007 (NOAA Report Card 2008)
 Ice only 3 feet thick

in most locations
(NOAA FAQ, 2007)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008
 In September 2007 an area the

size of Florida (69,000 square miles)
melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)
 Humpback whales spotted in

Arctic Ocean for first time in 2007
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
The Ice Cap in September 2007

 New minimum:
1.59 million square miles
(4.13 million square km)
September
median ice edge  Previous minimum:
1979-2000
2.05 million square miles
(2005)
 Average minimum:
Sea Ice edge
Sep. 16, 2007 2.60 million square miles
(1979 – 2000)
1 million square miles is an

area roughly the size of
Alaska and Texas combined,
or ten United Kingdoms (NSIDC
2007)
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008
Arctic sea ice extent reached annual low on September 12, 2008:
 The second-lowest level ever
 33% less than average minimum from 1979-2000
NSIDC
(2008)
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice

The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040
(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2006)
“Our research indicates that society can still

minimize the impacts on Arctic ice.”
Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2000 2040
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Melting Sea Ice
 Arctic winter ice 2008: Loss of older,
thicker (12 – 15 ft) ice
 Old ice (6+ years) has declined from

over 20% to about 6%
 Over 70% of ice is first-year

NSIDC (2008)
Current Conditions-2009
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Glacial Retreat
McCall Glacier
 Alaska has lost 400 billion tons of land ice
since 2003 (NASA 12/08)
 Bering Glacier, representing more than
15% of all the ice in Alaska, is melting
twice as fast as previously believed,
Austin Post photo

releasing approximately 8 trillion gallons
of water per year into the ocean -- or the 1941
equivalent of two Colorado Rivers 1958
(Michigan Tech Research Institute, 5/07) USGS photo
 The rapid retreat of Alaska’s glaciers

represents 50% of the estimated mass
loss by glaciers through 2004 worldwide
Matt Nolan photo

(ACIA 2004)
 Loss of over 588 billion cubic yards from

1961 to 1998 (Climate Change 11/05) 2004
2003
Bruce Molnia photo
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Glacial Retreat
Alaska’s Columbia Glacier
has decreased by about 9
miles since 1980 and thinned
by as much as 1,300 feet (Science
7/07)
Gulf of Alaska Glaciers losing

84 gigatons of ice mass
annually, contributing nearly
half as much freshwater melt as
Greenlnad and 15% of present
day global sea level rise from
melting ice (NASA 2008)
Impacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Permafrost Thawing
Soil Temperatures at
Osterkamp and Romanovsky
“All the Observatories show a substantial Franklin Bluffs
warming during the last 20 years”, causing 0
permafrost to melt at an unprecedented 1987 2003
rate. (State of the Arctic 2006)
Average
DEPTH
Deadhorse
1987-
2003 z
West Dock
1m
| | | | | | |
-8| -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1oC
TEMPERATURE NSIDC
Consequences:
 Damage to infrastructure,
lakes, rivers, and forests
 Rising sea levels
 Release of stored carbon
Vladimir Romanovsky photo (methane and CO2)
Impacts in Alaska
3. Animals
Animals at Risk
• Polar bears
• Walruses
• Black guillemots
• Arctic grayling
• Kittiwakes
• Ice seals
• Salmon
• Caribou
 Rising temperatures
 Shrinking habitat
 Food harder to get
 Expanding diseases
 Competition
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Polar Bears in Peril

 Numbers in western Hudson Bay
down 22% in 17 years
(U.S. Geological Service & Canadian
Wildlife Service, 2005)
 87% on sea ice (1979-1991) v.

33% on sea ice (1992-2004)

(Monnett et al., 12/05)
 Alaska polar bear drownings

in 2004:
4 documented (in 11%
of habitat)
27 estimated total
(U.S. Minerals Management Service,
2004)
Photo © environmentaldefense.org. All rights reserved
 Cannibalism in 2004
(Amstrup et al., 2006)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Polar Bear Cannibalism

Photos courtesy Steven Amstrup, USGS
Amstrup et al., Polar Biology - accepted March 27, 2006 © Springer-Verlag 2006
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Polar Bears in Peril

 Cubs perishing (61 cubs per
100 females between 1967-89;
25 cubs per 100 females
between 1990-2006 ), smaller
skulls and adult starvation
(Regehr & Amstrup, 2006)
 Shifting denning sites: 62% on

ice (1985-94); 37% on ice
(1998-2004) (Fischbach et al., 2007)
 Fasting bears in spring over the

Beaufort Sea increased from
9.6% in 1985 to 29.3% in 2006
(Polar Biology 2008)
 Listed as a threatened species

under the ESA (5/08)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Walrus Warning Signs

Female walruses depend on sea ice over the continental shelf
for feeding and nursing platforms
 Abandoned walrus calves:

They were “swimming
around us crying” (Aquatic
Mammals 4/06)
 Haulout on Land: Thousands

of walruses on shore in
Alaska in 2007; 40,000 in one
haulout in Russia (AP 10/07)
 Stampeding Deaths: 3,000 to
4,000 stampeding deaths in
Russia in 2007
 Other Concerns: More
energy expended in foraging;
depleted habitat; increased Photo © Viktor Nikiforov, WWF-Russia
calf mortality
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Brown Bears
Factors of Concern:
 Diet impairment: fish and berries (Kenai Brown Bears – fish 90% of diet v.
black bears 10%)
 Hibernation disturbances for reproducing females (Jan-May)
 2 months to implant
 Cub growth
 Flooding of dens (Sean Farley, ADF&G, 2007)
 Reduction in productivity and survival rates
following salmon decline in Kuskokwim; additional
research underway
(Steve Kovach, FWS, 2007)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Caribou
 The Western Arctic Caribou

Herd shrank by 113,000 (more
than 20%) between 2003 and
2007; mid-winter warm spells
may have played a role (AP 5/08)
 Since 1989, the Porcupine Caribou

Herd has declined at 3.5% per year
to a low of 123,000 animals
in 2001 (ACIA 2004)
 Freezing rain coats lichen
 Changing rivers
 Less tundra
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Dall Sheep
“…we’re going to have declining Dall sheep. We’re losing their habitat.”
Dr. John Morton - Kenai National Wildlife Refuge
 Dall sheep live exclusively in alpine tundra
 Due to warmer temperatures, the tree line in

the Kenai Mountains has risen at a rate of about 1 meter/year
over the past 50 years
 20% of the tundra above 1,500 ft. has disappeared, is now shrub
or open woodland (Refuge Notebook 6/07)
Photo: Tim Craig, Wildlife Biologist BLM

Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Muskoxen
 Population in northern Alaska and Canada
declined from approximately 700 to 400
(Pat Reynolds, FWS, 2007)
 Risk Factors:
• Icing events
• Lower calf production
• Deeper snow
• Not highly mobile
• Increase in disease (e.g. nematode

lungworm, able to complete life
cycle in 1 year v. 2 years) (Kutz
et al., 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Birds Threatened
Kittlitz’s Murrelet
Declines in Kittlitz’s Murrelet:
 Prince William Sound:
97% from 1989 - 2001
 Glacier Bay:
89% from 1991 - 2000

 Kenai Peninsula:
83% since 1976
(BirdLife International, Kittlitz’s Murrelet Species
Fact Sheet, 2006)
“ The fate of the Kittlitz’s Murrelet may hinge

Photo © 2004 Gary Luhm. All rights reserved.
on the fate of Alaska’s glaciers, and
therefore Kittlitz’s may be among the
Subsistence observations:
 Birds flying higher, farther away world’s first avian species to succumb to the
 Lakes and rivers too low effects of rising global temperatures.”
(John F. Piatt, USGS, and Kathy Kuletz, USFWS)
 Fewer birds seen
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Alaska Waterfowl
Cackling Hatchlings
 Hatch dates have advanced 5 - 10 days since

1982 in all 5 species studied in Yukon Delta NWR
 Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and

intensity, and wetland drying will likely cause
dramatic changes in waterfowl communities
Julien Fischer, Scientist, USFWS (2007)
Aleutian Cackling Geese White Front Goose on Nest Brandt Geese

Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Migratory Birds -- Scaup

 Population appears to be “in peril”
(Consensus Report, 2006)
 Declined from over 7 million (in 1970s)

to 3.39 million (2005) (CR)
 Record low in 2006: 3.2 million (Ducks Unlimited)
 70% breed in western boreal forest;

Fastest rate of decline there
(94,000 birds per year from 1978 - 2005) …
“Declines reflect breeding season events.” (CR)
 19% wetland loss in Yukon Flats

(1985 - 89 v. 2001 - 03)
 Where ponds lose 20% or more surface,
scaup food sources decline (i.e. amphipods,
gastropods and chironomid larvae)
(Corcoran et al., 2007)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Yukon Chinook Diseased

Yukon River: Water Temperature
E.R. Keeley photo
Courtesy of
Dr. R. Kocan
 Protozoan parasite Icthyophonus
never found in Yukon salmon
before 1985
 Today, up to 45% of the Yukon’s
Chinook salmon are infected
(Kocan et al., 2004)
photo
Kocanphoto
 Infection is causing:
 Wastage
R. Kocan
AFIP photo
 Reduced returns to spawning grounds

R.
 Mortality
Photo: Armed Forces Institute of Pathology
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Kenai Salmon Streams Warming

Kenai Streams: Days Above Temperature Standard
Anchor
Anchor River  Temperatures in
(6/21-9/11)
(6/21-9/11)
Kenai Peninsula
above 13C
above 15C airair temperature
temperature streams now
100
100 14
14 consistently exceed
13 Alaska’s standard to
Mean Air Temperature (C)

Mean Air Temperature (C)
80
80 12 13
protect salmon
C
15 ooC
11
spawning areas
Above13
60 10 12
# Days Abive
9 (13o C / 55o F) and

40
40 8 11
7
migratory routes
20
20 6 10
(15oC)
5
0 4
0 9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Cook Inletkeeper

Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Smaller Fry in Silted Skilak Lake

Photo: NWS/APRFC, NOAA
 Glacial melt has increased

silt in Skilak Lake (major
rearing area for Kenai River
sockeye)
 Less light, plankton

production and food for
salmon fry
 Fry in 2004 were about 50%

smaller than average for the
prior decade; fry in 2005
were 60% smaller
(AK Department of Fish & Game,
2005)
Photo © Adams River Salmon Soc

Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Low Pink Salmon Harvests

 ADFG 2006 SE purse seine
 Predicated: 52 million
 Actual: 11.6 million
 Low number was due in “large part

to the warmer temperatures of
2004, when the parents of this
season’s mature fish would have
been affected” (ADFG, 2006)
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Exotic Species Appearing

Juneau Empire
September 25, 2005
“Squid, sharks and barracuda are

among species newly arrived in
Alaska waters.”
Photo courtesy of the Deep Blue Gallery

Seiners and troll fishermen have

sighted sardines, anchovies, jumbo
squid, sharks, barracuda and large
concentrations of brilliantly hued
open-ocean fish such as pomfret
and opah
2005 GOA water temperatures

were 2-3o higher than average.
Juneau Empire, 9/25/05
Photo © Ocean Research, Inc
Impacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing

 Change from arctic to subarctic
conditions underway in the
northern Bering Sea
 Prey base for benthic-feeding

gray whales, walrus, and sea
ducks is declining
Image: NASA Earth Observatory
 North Pacific Fisheries
Management Council cut 2007
catch quotas for pollock by 6%
due to fish migrating northward
into cooler waters. Additional cut Photo courtesy J. Overland
of 18.5%
Gary Luhmfor 2009.
 Scientists predict 40% loss of NOAA photo NOAA Photo

Bering Sea Ice by 2050 (USGS, 2007)
Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Wetlands and Forests

Over the last 5 decades, in areas
of the Kenai NWR:
 Open areas decreased by
34%
 Wet areas decreased by
88%
 Water and lakes decreased by USFWS photo
14%
(Klein, Berg and Dial, 2004)
8-14,000 year old sphagnum peat

bogs are drying out and becoming
shrub lands
(Ed Berg, Kenai Nat. Wildlife Refuge)
USFWS photo courtesy Ed Berg

Kenai Wetlands Shrinking
 Average water balance decline
– 1944-1967: 3.9 in. of water
– 1968-2005: 1.2 in. (70%)
 Decline in Fire Breaks

(Refuge Notebook, 12/07)
Impacts in Alaska
Disappearing & Shrinking Ponds

Disappearance of Ponds since 1950’s (Riordan et al., 2006)
% Decrease in % Decrease in
Study Area Number of Ponds Area of Ponds
Copper River Basin 54 % 28 %

Minto Flats SGR 36 % 25 %
Innoko Flats NWR 30 % 31 %

Yukon Flats NWR 10 % 18 %
Based on Inventory of 10,000 closed-basin ponds
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: White Spruce

photo Barbara Logan © 2005. dlogan@alaska.net
 In 1950, critical temperature

threshold crossed (16o C/60o F);
since then, growth has declined
 Species could be eliminated from

central Alaska by the end of this
century (ACIA 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Black Spruce

 The dominant tree in about 55% of
Alaska’s boreal forest
 Warming temperatures result in strongly
reduced growth
 Trees also disrupted by thawing ground
 By 2100,
predicted
temperature
scenarios
would not allow
black spruce
USFS photo
to survive in
Fairbanks area
(ACIA 2004)
Impacts in Alaska
Forest Decline: Yellow Cedar

 A dramatic decline has
affected over 500,000
acres of yellow cedar in
SE Alaska
 The suspected cause is

spring freezing injury,
due to:
- Warmer winters
(premature de-hardening
in springtime)
- Reduced snow cover
(less insulation)
(Hennon/USFS, 2004; Schaberg & Hennon, 2005)
Photos courtesy Paul Hennon

Impacts in Alaska
Spruce Bud Worm

 Before 1990,
spruce
budworm was
With increased warming, not able to
all white spruce in Alaska reproduce in
will be vulnerable to
central Alaska
outbreaks.
 After warm
summers in the
1990’s, large
infestations of
budworms have
occurred(ACIA 2004)
USDA Forest Service,
Dave Powell photo
Impacts in Alaska
Spruce Bark Beetle

The world’s largest
outbreak of spruce
bark beetle has
USFS photo infested approximately
4 million acres on the
Kenai Peninsula
(ACIA 2004)
Cause:
 Warmer summers
One year life- cycles
 Warmer winters
No kill-off
Columbia University photo http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194

Impacts in Alaska
Forest Fires
 6.6 million acres
burned in 2004
 4.6 million acres
burned in 2005
 Over 25% of
forests in NE
Alaska burned
6.0 Alaska Acres Burned 1956-2005

Bureau of Land Management
millions of acres
5.0 John McColgan photo
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
Impacts in Alaska
Tundra Fires
 2007 tundra fires: Alaska Fire Service, 2007
Record breaking season in AK

 Impact on Habitat
Reported thousands acres burned north of 68o latitude

from 1950-2007
T o ta l T u n
Anaktuvuk River Fire, 2007
250
North Slope Fire, 2004
Impacts in Alaska
Invasive Plant Species
EXAMPLE: Purple Loosestrife
 Aggressive invader of wetlands,

serious threat to habitat and
Canadian Dept of Agriculture

species diversity
 Requires warm temperatures for
germination (15-20C)
(ADFG)
 “Northern limits of distribution

may be strongly influenced by
low growing season
WI Dept Natural Resources

temperature.” (USFS)
 Now seen for the first time in
Alaska along Chester Creek
Impacts in Alaska
Insect Pests
Warmer conditions can allow or
worsen a variety of pest infestations:
Woolly sawfly
 European slugs: New to
Alaska, now flourishing from
Kenai to Interior
 Aphids: Growth increases
exponentially with temperature
Canadian Ministry of Forests
 Birch leaf roller, birch leaf
miner, larch saw fly, aspen
European black slug leaf miner
(Glenn Juday, Prof. of Forest Ecology, UAF)
 Woolly sawfly: Longer growing

season can allow two life cycles
within one year
© Ralph Berry OSU

Plants stressed by heat or drought are
more susceptible
(Michael Rasy, IPM, UAF Coop. Ext.)
Impacts in Alaska
4. Weather and Storms
Shoreline Erosion
 184 communities are at risk
from flooding and erosion
(GAO estimate)
 Some shorelines have

retreated more than 1500
feet over past few decades
(National Assessment Synthesis Team)
 Newtok lost 2-3 miles 12:37 PM

in 40 years October 8, 2002
 In a single storm in 1997, 2:32 PM
Shishmaref lost 125 feet of

beach
“Coastal villages are becoming more

susceptible to flooding and erosion
caused in part by rising temperature.”
(GAO 2004)
Shishmaref
Photos courtesy Nome Nugget, from arctic.noaa.gov
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure and Storms

September 2005:
 Storm surges 9 ft, waves 15 ft Kotzebue Golovin
 34 communities affected Nome
Unalakleet
 Unalakleet lost 10-20 feet of beach
Newtok
 Newtok lost 10 ft of beach and
Bethel
a 1000-gallon fuel tank
 Golovin homes were flooded for an
unprecedented third year in a row.
(Anchorage Daily News, 9/28/05)
Photo © Gary Braasch

Golovin, September 23, 2005. Photo courtesy Toby Anungazuk, Jr. Shishmaref, October 2002
Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure and Relocation Costs

Army Corps of Engineers, April 2006 Report
Costs of Future Cost to How Long Does The
Erosion Protection Relocate Community Have
Kivalina 15,000,000 $ 95 – 125 million 10 – 15 years
Newtok 90,000,000 $ 80 – 130 million 10 – 15 years
Shishmaref 16,000,000 $100 – 200 million 10 – 15 years
Bethel $5,000,000 N/A > 100 years

Dillingham 10,000,000 N/A > 100 years
Kaktovik 40,000,000 $ 20 – 40 million > 100 years
Unalakleet 30,000,000 N/A > 100 years

Impacts in Alaska
Infrastructure
“A warming climate will damage Alaska’s infrastructure because it was
designed for a cold climate.” (Larsen and Goldsmith, Institute of Social and Economic Research, 6/07)
 Damage to infrastructure may add $3.6 to $6.1 billion (10% to 20%) to future
costs for public infrastructure from now to 2030 and $5.6 to $7.6 billion (10% to
12%) from now to 2080
 Damage will be concentrated in areas of thawing permafrost, flooding, and

eroding coastlines
Impacts in Alaska
Alaska’s Arctic Coast
 Erosion rates
increased from 6.8
meters/year (1955
-1979) to 13.6 m/yr
(2002- 2007)
(Geophysical Research
Letters 2009)
 USGS documented
that in the last 50
years, a section of the
Alaska North Slope
coastline has eroded
by as much as 3,000
ft (0.9 km) (Geology, 07/07)
USGS/Christopher Arp, Benjamin

Impacts in Alaska
National Security
NORAD AK Region
Three North American Aerospace Defense Command early-warning

radar sites in Alaska to be shut down due, in part, to erosion
caused by climate change; Point Lonely already closed
(New York Times, 12/07)
The Northwest Passage
The Arctic Ice Cap “Island”
September 2008:
Northwest Passage &
Northern Sea Route
both open (less than
one-tenth surface ice) for
first time since satellite
observations began
(US National Ice Center)
Sept. 8, 2008
(NASA)
Ownership Issues
No one owns the North Pole – Yet
Potential claimants to North

Pole ownership:
 Russia
 Canada
 Denmark (via Greenland)
July 2008 USGS estimate:

13% of undiscovered oil &
30% of undiscovered gas
lie under Arctic seabed
Oil & gas recovery possible –

But at what
environmental & human
costs? International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean
(geology.com)
Maritime Jurisdiction & Boundaries
Staking Claims: The First Map (Aug. 2008)
Countries that control

Arctic coastline:
 United States
 Canada
 Russia
 Norway
 Denmark (Greenland)
Each allowed 200-mile
economic zone beyond
shoreline – or
continental shelf, if
geologically related
May 2008: International Boundaries Research Unit, Durham University

5 Arctic states agree that www.durham.ac.uk/ibru
UN Commission will settle
competing territorial claims
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Health Impacts
 Oyster contamination in
South Fairbanks smoke, June 2004
summer of 2004 (New England
Journal of Medicine, 2005)
 Hazardous travel, hunting

and fishing
 Adverse dietary impacts
 Beaver range expanding
 Health damage from fires --

respiratory illnesses,
especially in elderly, children
 Water and sewer failures
 First yellowjacket sting
deaths in Fairbanks in 2006;
50% increase in
sting-related emergencies
(Dr. Jeffrey Demain, UAA)
 West Nile virus, Lyme

West Nile virus mosquito disease threats
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Alaska’s Uniqueness
Global warming
Race Cancelled
threatens 3 of last 9
Alaska’s very years
soul and special
quality of life
Start Moved
7 of last 10 years
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Subsistence Impacts
“…the Arctic is becoming an
environment at risk… Sea
ice is less stable, unusual
weather patterns are
occurring, vegetation cover
is changing, and particular

animals are no longer found
in traditional hunting areas
during specific seasons.
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Local landscapes,
seascapes, and icescapes
are becoming unfamiliar,
making people feel like
strangers in their own land.”
(ACIA, 2004)
NOAA photo Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism

Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
People and Culture
“Climate change
is occurring faster
than people can
adapt. [It] is
strongly affecting
people in many
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
communities, in
some cases
threatening their
cultural survival.”
(ACIA 2004)
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism

Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Indigenous Peoples
“For the Inuit, climate change is a

matter of livelihood, food, health,
and individual and cultural
survival.”
“The erosion and potential

destruction of our way of life
brought about by climate change
resulting from emission of
greenhouse gases amounts to a
violation of the fundamental Sheila Watts-Cloutier
human rights of Inuit.” Former Chair, Inuit
Circumpolar Conference
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Indigenous Peoples
“In no case may a

people be deprived of
its own means of
subsistence.”
United Nations International Covenant
on Civil and Political Rights
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Human Impacts
“All of these villages have lost people on
the ice. When you have a small village of
300 or 400 people, losing three or four of
their senior hunters, it’s a big loss. A lot
of the elders will no longer go out on the
sea ice because their knowledge will not
work anymore. What they’ve learned and
passed on for 5,000 years is no longer
functional.”
Will Steger
Founder, globalwarming101.org
Photo: Environment Canada
“Due to unusual ice conditions, one of

our young local hunters lost his life,
which has not occurred in our
community in my lifetime.”
Fannie Weyiouanna, Shishmaref
Photo: Tony Weyiouanna, Sr.
Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
If we do not Act: Worst Case

If we fail to act, and CO2 keeps rising at the current rate, then
a new modeling study predicts that:
 Average temperatures in
many parts of northern _
North America will rise Predicted +25oF
more than 25oF by 2100 Temperature
_
Increase +20
 Arctic tundra will decline
_
from 8% to 1.8% of the
world’s land area, and
+15
Alaska will lose almost all of _
its evergreen boreal forests +10
_
 Extinctions and profound +5
disruptions will ensue
(Govindasamy and Caldeira, 2005)

Impacts in Alaska
5. Human Impacts
Shishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must Help

Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr.

The Options:
 Relocate entire village
 Pay villagers to disperse
to Nome, Kotzebue,
and Anchorage
 Do nothing
Kelly Eningowuk photo
Adaptation
1. Relocating Villages
The “Do Nothing” Option

“The no action option for
Shishmaref is the annihilation
of our community…”
“We are unique, and need

to be valued as a national
treasure by the people of
the United States. We
deserve the attention and
help of the American
people and the federal
Robert Puschendorf
government.”
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos

Adaptation
1. Relocating Villages
Shishmaref’s Request
“We are worth saving.”
“[We request that] Shishmaref

be used as a Federal
demonstration project with

maximum flexibility to determine
what changes need to be made
to lower the cost and impact of
relocation, identify a Federal
champion, and facilitate agency
coordination.”
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Adaptation
2. Infrastructure
Adaptation: Other Needs

Alaska Highways and Communities Susceptible
to Permafrost Melting Many other areas
where adaptation is
Permafrost:
-- continuous
needed:
-- discontinuous
-- sporadic
 Lands management
-- <10%
 Fish and wildlife
management
 Water and waste

management
 Archaeology
Map courtesy of Orson Smith  Highway repair
Courtesy of Peter Larsen, UAA
Alan Parkinson photo

ANTHC photo
Adaptation
3. Extinctions
Adaptation: Not always possible
Adaptation is critical but not sufficient.
If global warming emissions continue

to increase, irreplaceable elements of
our natural and cultural heritage will be
lost forever.
NMML
ADCED
Global Cataclysmic Concerns
Cataclysmic Global Consequences

Florida Areas Subject to Inundation
With a 100 cm Sea Level Rise  Massive extinctions: Over 1 million species
threatened with extinction (D
Chris Thomas and Nature, 2004)
 Ocean acidification
 Hurricanes, droughts, extreme weather
 Increase in human death and disease
 Coral reef destruction

 Coastal inundation
Harlequin frog
Robert Puschendorf
ACIA 2004
ACIA 2004 Photo © Robert Puschendorf All rights reserved

Ocean Acidification
“The surface ocean currently absorbs about one-fourth of
the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere from human activities.”
Monaco Declaration 2008
Remains in the
atmosphere
(greenhouse gas)
Dissolves in
sea water
CO2 + H20 HCO3- + H+

(ACID) CO2
Water becomes
CO2
more acidic.
Ocean Acidification
 Since 1850, ocean
Lower pH = MORE ACID pH has decreased
by about 0.1 unit:
a 30% increase
Historical
Historical and
and Projected
Projected pH
pH and
and in acidity
Dissolved CO
CO2
2
(Royal Society 2006)
 At present rate of
CO2 emission,
pH acidity predicted to
increase by 0.4
units: a 3-fold
increase in H ions
Dissolved by 2100
CO2
 Carbonate ion
concentrations
1850
1850 2000
2000 2100
2100 decrease
Feely, Sabine and Fabry,
2006
Ocean Acidification
Hydrogen ions combine
with carbonate ions in the
water to form bicarbonate.
This removes carbonate

ions from the water, making
it more difficult for organisms

to form the CaCO3 they need
Ocean Acidification Network 2009 for their shells.
Carbonate ion
H+ + CO32- HCO3- concentrations decrease
Carbonate Bicarbonate
Aragonite, critical for most
Less Carbonate
shells and coral is one of
two polymorphs of CaCO3
Ca + CO32- CaCO3
Impacts on Aragonite Saturation
Ocean Acidification
 Animals with calcium carbonate shells -- corals, sea urchins, snails,
mussels, clams, certain plankton, and others -- have trouble building
skeletons and shells can even begin to dissolve. “Within decades these
shell-dissolving conditions are projected to be reached and to persist
throughout most of the year in the polar oceans.” (Monaco Declaration 2008)
All photos this page courtesy of NOAA

 Pteropods (an important food
source for salmon, cod,

herring, and pollock) likely not
able to survive at CO2 levels
predicted for 2100 (600ppm,
pH 7.9) (Nature 9/05)
Pteropod
 Coral reefs at serious risk;
doubling CO2, stop growing
and begin dissolving (GRL 2009)
 Larger animals like squid may
have trouble extracting oxygen
 Food chain disruptions
Squid Clam
Coral Bleaching
 Corals damaged by higher water temperatures and acidification
 Higher water temperatures cause bleaching: corals expel
zooxanthellae algae
 Corals need the algae for nutrition
Healthy staghorn coral Bleached staghorn coral (algae expelled)

Coral Bleaching
 Belize: estimated
40% loss since 1998
(Independent, 6/06)
 Seychelles: 90%
bleached in 1998, now
only 7.5% cover; 50%
decline in fish diversity
(Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, 5/06)
Photo © Gary Braasch

 If warming continues,
Great Barrier Reef could
lose 95% of living coral
by 2050 (Ove Hoegh-Guldberg/
WWF, 2005)
 Disease followed
bleaching in Caribbean
Reefs in 2005/06
(Proceedings of the National Academy
of Science, 8/06)
International Health Impacts

 Increased epidemics of malaria in Africa;
new cases in Turkey and elsewhere
 Increased cerebral-cardiovascular
conditions in China
 Increased heat wave deaths on Europe

(52,000 in 2003), typhoid fever, Vibrio
vulnificus, Ostreopsis ovata, Congo Crimea
hemorrhagic fever
 Dengue fever in SE Asia
 More mercury release, flooding, storms
 WHO: 150,000 deaths and 5 million

illnesses per year attributable to global
warming; numbers expected to double
by 2030 (Nature, 2005)
Inundation
 Sea level has increased 3.1
mm/year from 1993 - 2003
(IPCC, 2007)
 This is 10 - 20 times faster

than during the last 3,000
years (ACIA, 2004)
 7 – 23 inches by 2099 (IPCC

2007)
 Not less than 20”, could

exceed 39” by 2099 (Copenhagen
2009)
 4 - 6 meters of sea level rise

locked in by 2100 if 3 times
pre-industrial CO2 or 1%
increase/year
(Overpeck et al., 2006)
Cataclysmic Global Consequences: Inundation

 Bangladesh: More than 17 million
people within 3 feet of sea level
 Tuvalu: Island nation, highest elevation
15 ft; mostly less than 1m
 Lohachara: First inhabited island
(10,000 people) submerged

Photo courtesy Richard Wilson (Independent, 12/06)
Bangladesh
Photo courtesy ourbangla.com

Tuvalu Photo © Gary Braasch
Inundation
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Global Cataclysmic Concern
Inundation
Inundation
The Greatest Threat
“We know the science,

we see the threat posed
by changes in our climate,

and we know the time
for action is now.”
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
R-California
What We Can Do
What We Can Do
R E D U C E CO 2
EMISSIONS
1. Is it achievable?
2. Action is essential
at every level
• Individual
• Corporate
Photo courtesy of 7summits.com

• Local
• State
• Federal
• International
1. Critical Steps
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
“Socolow’s Wedges”
Carbon Emissions At least

(Billions of tons per year) TRIPLING
CO2
14 th
P a
nt
r e STABILIZATION
C ur TRIANGLE
7 Avoid
Flat Path
doubling
CO2
1.9
1954 2004 2054

Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
Carbon Emissions 7 wedges are

14 (Billions of tons per year) needed to build
the stabilization
th
a triangle.
t P
en
r r STABILIZATION
C u TRIANGLE
One wedge avoids

1 billion tons of
ONE WEDGE carbon emissions
7
per year by 2054
Flat Path
2004 2054 Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004
What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
Carbon Emissions
Examples
14 (Billions tons per year)
Each of These Changes Can Achieve
“One Wedge” of progress:
 Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars

from 30 to 60 mpg.
th
 Produce acurrent coal-based electricity
P
nt today’s efficiency.
with etwice
u rr “High agreement and much
evidence that all
C
 Increase wind electricity capacity by 50 stabilization levels
assessed can be achieved
times relative to today. by a deployment of …
ONE WEDGE technologies that are either
7  Adopt conservation tillage in all currently available or
Flat Path expected to be
agricultural soils worldwide. commercialized in coming
decades, assuming….”
(IPCC 2007)
For more examples see
2004 Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004 2054
What We Can Do
Wind Power
“It is becoming clear that wind
energy will play a major role in
the national generation mix. In
Kotzebue, Alaska, wind energy
provides between 5%-7% of
the total energy needs and we

plan to add more. There are
potentially 70 to 90
Courtesy of Chris Rose
communities that could reduce
their energy costs by adding
wind energy.”
Brad Reeve
General Manager
Kotzebue Electric
Association
What We Can Do
Wind Power
Alaska Wind Resource Map
Wind turbines in
Toksook Bay have
already displaced 25%
of diesel fuel that

otherwise would have
been burned by
generators; in Kasigluk
the figure is 18%
Meera Kohler, AVEC 11/08
What We Can Do
Corporate Actions
Reducing CO2 is good business
 Dow Chemical: reduced energy

per unit of production by 21%
since 1994, saving $3 billion.
 3M reduced emissions by about

37% between 1990 and 2004, by
reducing energy consumption 4%
per year.
 BP reduced emissions 14%
between 1998 and 2004, gaining
$650 million.
BP Greenhouse gas emissions: (million tonnes):

1998: 95.3 2000: 83.7 2002: 82.4
2003: 83.4 2004: 81.7
What We Can Do
Individual Actions
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
3. Use renewables
3.
4. Use renewables
Be involved
4. Be involved
What We Can Do
Measuring Your Carbon Footprint

Major Carbon Contributors:
 Electric consumption
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
 Gas/heating oil
consumption
 Car and miles driven
 Miles flown
 ORV use
Average Alaskan Carbon

Footprint = 32,000 pounds
Transportation’s Contribution
 Motor vehicle emissions represent 31% of total carbon dioxide and
49% of nitrogen oxides released in the U.S. (The Green Commuter, a publication of the
Clean Air Council)
What We Can Do
Transportation: Part of the Solution

The Big 3
1. Reduce vehicle use through
urban planning, trails, mass
transportation and other land
use and transportation policies
(0.2 Gt)
2. Improve vehicle efficiency
3. De-carbonize fuels
 “Support smart Transit planning

that prioritizes public transportation,
biking and walking.” (Design to Win, 8/07)
 If one million people replaced a

five-mile car trip/week with a bike
ride or walk, CO2 emissions would
be reduced by 100,000 tons/year
(www.activetransporation.org)
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual

Conservation Measures:
 Walk, bike, ride public transit, or carpool
 Make sure your tires are fully
inflated and your car tuned up
 Lower your water heater and home
thermostats
 Don't preheat your oven
 Only run your dishwasher with full loads
 Reduce your shower length and
temperature
 Buy locally produced food—look for the
Alaska Grown Logo
 Unplug appliances not in use
 Turn off lights when leaving a room
 Use recycled paper
 Reuse or recycle as much as you can
 Cut down on consumerism
What We Can Do
Conservation: Three Examples

Unplug Appliances
 Vampires!
 43 billion kWH lost/year in U.S.
 Estimated savings =
1,000 lbs/year/person
Pump Up Tires
 4 million gallon of gas wasted daily in
U.S.
 Extends life of tires by 25%
1,000 lbs/year/person
Lower Thermostat
 2 degrees
 OR 6 degrees for 8 hours/day
2000 lbs/year/person
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual

Energy Efficiency
 Reduce your home’s heat and energy loses
 Replace incandescent lights
with fluorescents
 Replace your appliances with
“energy star” rated appliances
 Buy a hybrid car
Renewables
 Install renewable energy systems: wind, solar,
geothermal, in-stream hydro
 Use biofuels
Carbon Neutral
 Carbon offsets – Denali Green Tags
Be Heard!
What We Can Do
Energy Efficiency: Two Examples
Compact Fluorescents
 Four to six times
more efficient
100 lbs/year
for each bulb converted
Hybrid Cars
 Save money on fuel
 Tax credit
5,600 lbs/year
What We Can Do
Getting to Zero
Renewable Energy
 Wind
 Solar
 Instream hydro
 Geothermal
 Biofuels
Carbon Offsets
 Bonneville Environmental
Foundation (BEF)
Carbon Offsets
 NativeEnergy Carbon Offsets
 Myclimate/Sustainable Travel
International
 Expedia/TerraPass
 Other
What We Can Do
Government Actions
A Success Story: Acid Rain
Regulating Emissions (SO2) through Cap and Trade
SO2 Emissions from Utilities  SO2 emissions have

declined by more than
6.5 million tons

since 1980
 Actual cost was
10 – 35% that
predicted by models
(Tim Herzog, World Resources
Institute, 2008)
 Fully implemented, the

cap reduces SO2
emissions to
50% of 1980 levels
by 2010
Source: EPA 2002
What We Can Do
Government Actions
National:
• Senate Resolution
• Cap and Trade Legislation
• RES and Energy Efficiency Legislation
State:
• Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

• Governor’s Sub-Cabinet
Local:
• Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement / ICLEI
For the sake of current and future generations,

we need to demand
National, state, and local action!
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Senate
Remarks Resolution
by Senator Lisa Murkowski
“As more and more information becomes available, I believe
Finding #1: “Greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are
there is now almost
causing universal
average acceptance
temperatures that our planet is
to rise…”
warming. While the extent of anthropogenic influence on our
Finding
climate #2:may“There is a growing
remain scientific
in debate, consensus
I believe that human
it is a reality activity
that man is is
contributinga to substantial cause of greenhouse gas accumulation in the

the current warming trend. Accordingly, it is
atmosphere.”
appropriate – and quite frankly our responsibility – to take steps
to curb
Finding #3:the“Mandatory
growth ofsteps
greenhouse gas emissions.
will be required We the
to slow or stop cannot
growth
afford to wait of greenhouse
to take actiongas –emissions
while someinto warming
the atmosphere.”
can have
positive impacts, such as opening shipping lanes in the Arctic,
“It is the sense of the Senate that Congress should enact a comprehensive
significant
and warmingprogram
effective national of the planet will have
of mandatory, severe, negative
market-based limits and
impacts on
incentives onemissions
our society.”
of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse
the growth of such emissions …” February 13, 2006
• Won on a 53-44 vote, with support of 12 Republicans

• Initiated new discussion on a national, mandatory program
to reduce global warming pollution. Senator Murkowski
What We Can Do
H.R. 6 -- Passed
Energy Independence and Security Act
of 2007
Cars and light trucks sold in US must achieve a fleet average
of 35 mpg by 2020 (currently 27.5 mpg)
1) Increase in biofuels (5-fold)
2) Improved efficiency standards for lightings and appliances
3) Energy savings in buildings and industry
4) Some R&D for solar, geothermal and marine energy
5) Energy efficiency and renewable energy worker training program
6) Energy efficiency and renewable energy worker training program
Images @ Toyota.com and @ Honda.com

What We Can Do
Government Actions
Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S. 309);
Safe Climate Act of 2007 (H.R. 1590)
GOAL: Avoid additional 2oC increase in temperature (keep below 450 ppm)
TARGETS: 1) Reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020
2) Continue Reductions
TOTAL REDUCTIONS: 80% below 1990 levels
REGULATION: EPA within 2 years
MECHANISM: 1) Cap and Trade Permitted

2) Performance Standards
3) Efficiency Standards, etc.
4) Climate Reinvestment Fund
(adaptation, hardship, R & D)
Senator Boxer Rep. Waxman

What We Can Do
Government Actions
Low Carbon Economy Act of 2007 (S. 1766)
GOAL: Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions while Protecting Economy
TARGETS: 1) Cap emissions at 1990 levels by 2030

CO-SPONSORS: Senators Bingaman, Specter, Stevens, Murkowski,

Harkin, Akaka
MECHANISM: 1) Cap and Trade

2) Allowance Allocation
3) Adaptation Provisions
4) Fund/Support Technology
Senator Stevens Senator Murkowski

What We Can Do
Government Actions
America's Climate Security Act of 2008 (S. 2191)
FINDINGS: Global warming poses a “significant threat to US national security, the
US economy, public health and welfare in the US, the wellbeing of other nations, and
the global environment.”
TARGETS: Market-based cap-and-trade program that would reduce emissions to

current levels by 2012, to 10 percent below current levels by 2020, and to 70 percent
below current levels by 2050.
CO-SPONSORS: 11 sponsors: 4 R; 6 D; 1 I
MECHANISM: Cap and Trade
Senator Lieberman Senator Warner

What We Can Do
Government Actions
Federal Legislative Comparisons
World Resources Institute (December 2007)

What We Can Do
Government Actions
Legislative Actions in 2009
Senator Boxer Principles:
1) “Reduce emissions to levels guided by science to avoid dangerous global
warming;”
2) Certain, enforceable and reviewable short and long range targets;
3)”Ensure that state and local entities continue pioneering efforts to address
global warming;”
4) Establish a transparent and accountable market-based system that
efficiently reduces carbon emissions;
5) Revenue Distribution: “consumers whole,” clean technology,
adaptation for “states, localities and tribes, ”wildlife and natural
system conservation, international assistance;
6) “Level global playing field.”
Senator Boxer
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Legislative Actions in 2009
Congressman Waxman’s Statements:

GOAL: Pass comprehensive climate change legislation out of House
Energy and Commerce Committee by Memorial Day
Rep. Waxman
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Legislative Actions in 2009 – RE and EE
American Renewable Energy Act, H.R. 890)(Markey – Platts)
TARGET: 25% Renewable Energy by 2025
Save American Energy Act H.R. 889 (Markey)
TARGET: Electricity Saving of15% by 2020 and Natural Gas Savings of 10%
by 2020
Senator Bingaman’s Draft RES Legislation
TARGET: 20% Renewables by 2020
Senator Udall’s RES Legislation S.433
TARGET: 25% by 2025; Double RECs for
Renewables Generated on Alaska Native
Lands; Triple for Distributed Power
Sen. Udall Rep. Markey

What We Can Do
Government Actions
Alaska Renewable Energy Developments in 2009
Governor Palin Announces a 50% Renewables by 2025 Goal

(January 2009)
Alaska Energy Authority Selects $100 million in RE projects
and sends to Legislature for Approval
Future Investment in RE Fund?
Gov. Palin
What We Can Do
US Climate Action Partnership

 “Congress needs to enact legislation
as quickly as possible.”
 “Congress should specify an emission target

zone aimed at reducing emissions by 60%
to 80% from current levels by 2050.”
 “In our view, the climate change challenge,

like other challenges our country has
confronted in the past, will create more
economic opportunities than risks for the
U.S. economy.”
X
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Cap & Trade – Simplified
Emission Units
100--
50-- The Cap

50% overall reduction
0-- Company A Company B

What We Can Do
Government Actions
Cap & Trade – Simplified
Company A can reduce by 70 units at $10/unit
Emission Units Company B can reduce by 30 units at $10/unit but
to reduce an additional 20 units would cost
$12/unit
100--
50-- The Cap


What We Can Do
Government Actions
Cap & Trade – The Trade
Company A can sell 20 units to Company B
at $11/unit versus paying $12/unit
Emission Units
Without Cap & Trade: $104
Total Net Costs =
With Cap & Trade: $100
100--
50-- The Cap


What We Can Do
Legal Actions
 Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency
Standing and CO2 Pollutant under Clean Air Act
 Green Mountain Chrysler Plymouth Dodge Jeep v. Crombie

Upheld: State Auto Greenhouse Gas Standards, 30% reduction in 2009 models
 People of the State of California v. General Motors et al.

(Public Nuisance) – Dismissed as non-justiciable
 Native Village of Kivalina v. Exxon-Mobil

Respondent companies include 9 oil, 14 electric power, I coal
(Public Nuisance, Civil Conspiracy, Concert of Action)
The Catholic Church and the
Environment
Pope Benedict XVI
 Climate change, abuse of the environment declared against God's will (4/07)
 [We must] "respect creation" while "focusing on the needs of sustainable
development“ (4/07)
 "Water resources and climate change are subjects of great

importance for the whole human family“… [We must] "pray and work
for greater respect for the marvels of divine creation" (9/07)
 Environmental pollution declared a mortal sin (3/08)
Vatican City
The first fully carbon-neutral state in the world
Has offset its carbon footprint by:
 Planting a forest in Hungary
 Installing solar panels on roof of St Peter's Basilica
What We Can Do
The Costs of Inaction

The Stern Report:
• Costs of Action (stabilizing at 550 ppm CO2)

= 1% of GDP in 2050
• Costs of Inaction
= 5 - 20% of GDP, now and forever
(10% GDP is central prediction)
“Measures taken by the world’s governments to

reduce GHG could cost 1% of world economic
output but the cost of not taking those steps would
be at least 5 times as much, hitting the developing
world hardest.”
“If we act now, the economic benefits from efficiency

could pay for necessary supply side measures.”
Nicholas Stern, World Bank Economist, 2007

What We Can Do
What Do Alaskans Think?

 81% of Alaskans favor federal
 81% of Alaskans are convinced regulations of greenhouse gas
that global warming is happening emissions from power plants
63% of Alaskans trust
environmental organizations to tell the
71% of Alaskans think that
truth about global warming
global warming is a serious threat to

people in Alaska - 23 % trust corporations
Leiserowitz, A., & Craciun, J. (2006)
- 29% trust Alaskan politicians
- 82% trust scientists
- 86% trust family and friends
What We Can Do
State
Government Actions
Alaska Climate Change Commission
HCR 30: Creating an Alaska Climate Impact Assessment
Commission
WHEREAS recent weather patterns have created warming trends that have jeopardized
the health and well-being of residents of communities and the natural resources on
which they rely...
BE IT RESOLVED by the Alaska State Legislature that there is created an Alaska Climate
Impact Assessment Commission...
FURTHER RESOLVED that the duties of the commission include:

(1) Assess the current and potential effects of climate warming trends on the citizens,
natural resources, public health, and economy of the state...
(2) Estimate costs to the state...
(8) Recommend policies to decrease the negative
effects of climate change...
Enacted May 9, 2006

Senator Olson Representative Joule
What We Can Do
Government Actions
Alaska Climate Change Commission
Commission Final Report
“The Commission found that climate change presents unavoidable challenges
to the citizens of Alaska.”
“As has been often repeated, the State of Alaska is at the leading edge of
impacts resulting from a warming climate.”
“Impacts on Alaska’s fish and game assets are one of the most disconcerting
signs of climate warming.”
Next Steps: 1) Need a coordinated process for village relocation efforts;
2) Review capital planning to take into account climate change;
4) Fund assessment of public infrastructure at risk; priority for remediation;
5) Low interest loans for homes and businesses;
7) Pass legislation to establish sub-cabinet as Council
Issued March 17, 2008

Representative Joule
What We Can Do
State
Government Actions
Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet
***Administrative Order 238***

Established the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet to advise the Office of the Governor
on the preparation and implementation of an
Alaska Climate Change Strategy
The Sub-Cabinet's strategy will discuss:

 Building the state's knowledge of the actual and foreseeable effects of climate
warming in Alaska
 Developing appropriate measures and policies to prepare communities in Alaska
for the anticipated impacts from climate change
 Providing guidance regarding Alaska's participation in regional and national efforts
addressing causes and effects of climate change
 Opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from Alaska sources, including
the expanded use of alternative fuels, energy conservation, energy
efficiency, renewable energy, land use management, and
transportation planning
Enacted September 14, 2007 www.climatechange.alaska.gov

Commissioner Larry Hartig
What We Can Do
Government Actions
National:
• Senate Resolution
• Energy Independence and Security Act
• Cap and Trade Legislation
• RES Legislation
State:
• Climate Change Commission

• Governor’s Sub-Cabinet
Local:
• Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement / ICLEI
For the sake of current and future generations,

we need to demand
National, state, and local action!
Summary
Why Alaska Matters

in the Global Warming Crisis
 We are at ground zero.

 We are the “Paul Revere”

of global warming.
 Alaska contributes in
Courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Photo © 2002 Robert Glenn Ketchum
unique ways to the earth’s

natural and cultural
heritage, and this heritage
is imperiled.
 Our leaders matter.
 If we do not act…..
Thank You
JRA
For further information:
Deborah L. Williams
308 G Street, Suite 219
Anchorage, AK 99501
dlwilliams@gci.net
(907) 929-9370
Presentation produced by Jennifer R. Allen
Alaska Digital Graphics, Anchorage
For technical assistance please contact:
Jennifer Allen
jrallen@ak.net
(907) 360-2881
PO Box 212806
Anchorage, Alaska 99521
Scientific Contributors
We thank the following scientists and researchers for generous provision

of data and figures presented here, and for valuable discussions and
other assistance:
Ed Berg
Cook Inletkeeper
Paul Hennon
Richard Kocan
Peter Larsen
Tom Osterkamp
James Overland
Jonathan Overpeck
Vladimir Romanovsky
Chris Rose
Mark Willette
Woods Hole Research Center
Photographic Contributors
We gratefully acknowledge the photographs made available by:
Adams River Salmon Society http://www.salmonsociety.com/

Toby Anungazuk, Jr., Golovin
Alaska Conservation Foundation http://www.akcf.org
*Alaska Department of Community & Economic Development
www.dced.state.ak.us/apl/home.cfm
*Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.dec.state.ak.us/

Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium http://www.anthc.org/index.cfm
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 http://www.amap.no/acia/
*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology http://www.afip.org/vetpath/WSC/WSC95/95wsc18.htm
Gary Braasch http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
*Bureau of Land Management http://www.nifc.gov/gallery/
Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
Deep Blue Dive Shop, Utila, Honduras http://www.deepblueutila.com/
Kelly Eningowuk, Shishmaref
Environmental Defense Fund http://www.environmentaldefense.org
E.R. Keeley, University of British Columbia
Robert Glenn Ketchum http://www.robertglennketchum.com/
Barbara Logan dlogan@alaska.net
Gary Luhm http://www.garyluhm.com/
*NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/
Photographic Contributors (cont.)
*National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/
*National Weather Service Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/
Ocean Research, Inc., Honolulu http://www.ocean-research.com/
Alan Parkinson, CDC Anchorage
Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.westnilevirus.gc.ca
Robert Puschendorf
The 7 Summits http://7summits.com/
The Age, Melbourne. http://www.theage.com.au
The Nome Nugget http://www.nomenugget.com

*USDA Forest Service http://www.forestryimages.org/
*US Fish and Wildlife Service http://www.fws.gov/
*US Geological Survey http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/photos.asp
Web Portal of Bangladesh http://www.ourbangla.com
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr., Shishmaref
Richard Wilson, Harvard University
Copyright and intellectual property rights for all photographs, graphics, figures and
maps in this presentation are retained by their respective creators or owners as
indicated. Please contact them directly for permission to use their property and/or
guidelines on permitted usage. *Public domain source exceptions are asterisked.
© 2006 Alaska Conservation Solutions. This presentation is the intellectual

property of the author. Permission is granted for the presentation to be freely
shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright
statement appears and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the
author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission of
the author. Please contact the author if you plan to deliver the presentation
orally to a public audience.

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Sir David King

Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved

“No other single issue

clear and present danger

Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo

“A great nation like the

French President Nicolas Sarkozy

“Things are getting

Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com

“When 98% of scientists agree, who is Shell to

“Recognizing the risk of climate change, we are

“Accumulating science shows that

“The evidence is sufficient that we

2500+ SCIENTIFIC EXPERT REVIEWERS

1 REPORT WINNER OF THE

“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since

“There is an international scientific consensus

CO2: The Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant

Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels

CO2: Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant

Global Temperature Change (deg F)

CO2 Concentration (ppm)

2006 was warmest .

2007 was warmest

2008 eighth warmest

Pollution is the Primary Cause

What do these pollutants do? – Global Fever

> sleeping under a heavy blanket in the summertime

> wearing a parka that is too thick

Our atmospheric “blanket” or “parka” is over 37% “thicker”

Weather vs. Climate

Weather vs. Climate

Photo courtesy of Parker Rittgers / ADN reader submission

The Smoking Gun

Natural factors only Human factors only

Courtesy of Woods Hole Research Center

The Smoking Gun

Natural factors only BOTH Human factors only

Alaska is Ground Zero

-1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5

Why has Alaska warmed the most?

 Snow and sea ice

Why has Alaska warmed the most?

Impacts of Warming in Alaska

1. Melting ice, glaciers

3. Wetlands and forests

Columbia University photo

Melting Sea Ice

 Ice only 3 feet thick

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008

 In September 2007 an area the

 Humpback whales spotted in

The Ice Cap in September 2007

1 million square miles is an

Melting Sea Ice

“Our research indicates that society can still

Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research

 Old ice (6+ years) has declined from

 Over 70% of ice is first-year

Austin Post photo