Statistical Methods

useful in quality
improvement
BITS Pilani Sharad Shrivastava
Pilani Campus
Example 26 (normal distribution)

The length of a machined part is known to

have a normal distribution with a mean of
100mm and a standard deviation of 2mm

a) What proportion of the part will be above

103.3mm?

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 26 - a Solution:

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 26 - b
What proportion of the out put will be
between 98.5 and 102.0mm?

4
Example 26 - b solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 26 - c
What proportion of the parts will be shorter than
96.5 mm?

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 26 - c Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 26 - d

It is important that not many of the parts

exceed the desired length. If a manager
stipulates that no more than 5% of the parts
should be oversized, what specification limit
should be recommended?

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 26 - d Solution:

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
Example 27 (Exponential distribution)
It I known that a battery for a video game has an
average life of 500 hours (h). The failures of
batteries are known to be random and
independent and may be described by an
exponential distribution.

a) Find the probability that a battery will last at

least 600 h.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27 a Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27 b
Find the probability of a battery failing within
200 h.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27 b Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27- c
Find the probability of battery lasting
between 300 and 600 h.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27- c Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27- d
Find the standard deviation of the life of a battery.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27- d Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27- e
If it is known that a battery has lasted 300 h,
what is the probability that it will last at least
500 h?

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 27- e Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 29 (sample distribution)
The tuft bind strength of synthetic material
used to make carpet is known to have a
mean of 100lb and a standard and a
standard deviation of 20lb. if sample of
size 40 is randomly selected, what is the
probability that the sample mean will be
less than 105 lb?

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

 Data analysis using graphical methods and sampling
BITS Pilani
Pilani Campus
Introduction

26
Frequency Distributions

27
Check Sheet

28
Frequency distribution steps

29
Frequency Distributions

30
Frequency Distributions

31
Frequency Distributions

32
Histograms

33
Histograms

34
Run charts

35
Run charts

36
Stem and Leaf Plots

37
Stem and Leaf Plots

38
Stem and Leaf Plots

39
Stem and Leaf Plots

40
Pareto diagram

41
Pareto diagram

The steps for constructing Pareto Diagrams

are as follows:
Step 1: Decide on the data categorization
system-say by problem
type, type of nonconformity (critical,
major, minor), or whatever else
seems appropriate.
Step 2: Determine how relative importance
is to be judged-this
is, whether it should be based on
dollar values or the frequency of
occurrence.
Step 3: Rank the categories from most
important to least important.
Step 4: Compute the cumulative frequency
of the data categories in their
chosen order.
Step 5: Plot a bar graph, showing the
relative importance of each
problem area in descending order.
Identify the vital few that deserve
immediate attention

42
Pareto diagram

43
Pareto diagram

44
Causes and effect diagram

45
Causes and effect diagram

46
Causes and effect diagram

47
Causes and effect diagram

48
Causes and effect diagram

49
Causes and effect diagram

50
Causes and effect diagram

51
Box plots

52
Box plots

53
Box plots

54
Box plots

55
Box plots

56
Scatter diagram

57
Scatter diagram

58
Scatter diagram

59
 Inferences about
process quality
BITS Pilani Sharad Shrivastava
Pilani Campus
 Statistical inference
Random variable are generally used in
the analysis
The word Random is often applied to any
method or sample selection that lacks
systematic direction
Techniques of Statistical inference:
Parameter estimation
Hypothesis testing
Estimation of Product and Process
Parameters
Can be done using Point Estimation and Interval
Estimation
Point Estimation
Consists of a single numerical value that is used to make an
inference about an unknown product or process parameter
Eg. Estimate the length of a shaft produced in certain month
(25mm)
A point estimator is said to be unbiased if the expected value or
mean of sampling distribution is equal to the parameter
A point estimator is said to have minimum variance, if its
variance is smaller than that of any other point estimator for the
parameter under consideration

62
Inferential Statistics
Talks about statistical procedures to make
inferences about a population on the basis of
sample data
2 main procedures: Estimation and Hypothesis
testing
Sampling Distribution
An estimator or statistic is used to make inferences on
its corresponding population parameter
Studying the behavior of estimator through repeated
sampling is used to draw conclusions about the
parameter
This behavior is called sampling distribution,
expressed as the probability distribution of statistic
63
Inferential Statistics Contd..
Sampling Distribution
Sample mean is most widely used estimator and
hence it is important to know the sampling distribution
of mean, which is given by Central Limit Theorem
(CLT)
Suppose we have a population with mean and
standard deviation . If random sample of size n
are selected from this, and if sample size is large,
following holds good: (CLT)
Sampling distribution of the sample mean will be
approximately normal
Mean of this sampling distribution of mean x will be equal
to population mean
Std. deviation is x = / n
64
Inferential Statistics Contd..
Sampling Distribution
The degree to which a sampling distribution of a
sample mean approximates a normal distribution
becomes greater as sample size n becomes larger
For population distribution that is symmetric and uni-
modal, sample size as small as 4 or 5 yield sample
means that are approximately normally distributed
Variability of the sample mean, as measured by
standard deviation decreases as sample size
increases

65
Estimation of Product and Process
Parameters
Can be done using Point Estimation and Interval
Estimation
Point Estimation
Consists of a single numerical value that is used to make an
inference about an unknown product or process parameter
Eg. Estimate the length of a shaft produced in certain month
(25mm)
A point estimator is said to be unbiased if the expected value or
mean of sampling distribution is equal to the parameter
A point estimator is said to have minimum variance, if its
variance is smaller than that of any other point estimator for the
parameter under consideration

66
Estimation Contd..
Interval Estimation
A range of interval is determined, such that
there is some desired level of probability that
the true parameter value is contained within it
Called as confidence interval
Say 2 end points (L, U), probability of
parameter being contained in the interval is
some value (1 )
P(L U) = 1 , which represents a 2-
sided confidence interval

67
Estimation Contd..
Interval Estimation
If a large number of such confidence intervals were
constructed from large no. of independent samples,
then 100(1 )% of these intervals would be
expected to contain the parameter value
It can also be one sided. An interval of the type L <=
, such that P(L <= ) = 1 is a one sided lower
100(1 )% confidence interval for
Context of the situation influence the type of
confidence interval selected

68
Estimation of Parameters
Confidence interval about the mean (Unknown)
Case 1: Variance Known (Population)
Based on Central Limit Theorem, the sampling distribution of this
mean is approximately normal. A 100(1 )% two-sided
confidence interval for is given by
x z / 2 n
x z
2

n
-
Case 2: Variance Unknown (Population)
A random sample of size n is chosen and the sample mean X and
sample variance is calculated. The sampling distribution of
X - / (s / n) follows t distribution with (n-1) degree of freedom,
which is similar to normal distribution.
s s
x t( / 2),( n1) x t( / 2),( n1)
n n

69
Estimation of Parameters Contd..
Confidence interval for the difference between two mean
(Unknown)
Case 1: Variances of two populations Known
n1 is the sample size from 1st population with mean x1, while n2
and x2 is for 2nd population. A 100(1 )% two-sided confidence
interval is given by
12 22 12 22
x1 x 2 z 1 2 x1 x 2 Z
2 n1 n 2 2 n1 n 2
Case 2: Variances of two populations Unknown
Two unknown variances are equal (12 = 22)
(X1 - X2) - t/2, (n1+ n2 - 2) . Sp(1 / n1 + 1 / n2) (1 - 2)
(X1 - X2) + t/2, (n1+ n2 - 2) . Sp(1 / n1 + 1 / n2)
Sp2 = [(n1-1)s12 + (n2-1)s22] / (n1+ n2 - 2)

70
Estimation of Parameters Contd..
Confidence interval for the difference between
two mean (Unknown)
Case 2: Variances of two populations
Unknown
Two unknown variances are not equal (12 22)
(X1-X2) - t/2, . (s12 / n1 + s22 / n2) (1 - 2)
(X1-X2) + t/2, . (s12 / n1 + s22 / n2)
= no. of degrees of freedom
(s12/n1+s22/n2)2 / ((s12/n1)2/n1-1+(s22 /n2)2/n2-1)

71
Estimation of Parameters Contd..
Confidence interval for a proportion
Let p the proportion of success in binomial distribution i.e. p is
the proportion of non-conforming items in a process or lot. p* is
the sample proportion (p* = x / n). The confidence interval is
given by
p1 p 1 p
p
z
p pp
z
2 n 2 n

Confidence interval for difference between 2 proportion

A sample size of n1 selected with parameter p1 and a sample
size of n2 selected with parameter p2
(p1*-p2*) - z/2.[p1*(1-p1*)/n1+p2*(1-p2*)/n2] p1-p2
(p1*-p2*) + z/2.[p1*(1-p1*)/n1+p2*(1-p2*)/n2]

72
Estimation of Parameters Contd..
Confidence Interval for Variance
A random variable x from a normal distribution with
mean and variance 2 (both unknown)
An estimator of 2 is the sample variance s2
Sampling distribution of s2 follows a chi-square
distribution with (n-1) degrees of freedom given by
(n-1)s2 / 2 = 2n-1
A chi square distribution is skewed to the right and a
100%(1-) interval for population variance is given by
n 1s 2 2

n 1s 2
2
/ 2 , n 1 2 1 / 2, n 1

73
Estimation of Parameters Contd..
Confidence Interval for ratio of two variances
Random variable x1, x2 from a normal distribution with mean 1,
2 and variance 12, 22 (both unknown)
Random sample of size n1, n2 are chosen and the variance was
found to be s12, s22
The ratio of these 2 variances will follow an F distribution with
(n1-1) degrees of freedom in numerator and (n2 1) d.o.f in
denominator given by s12 / 1
~ Fn1 1, n2 1
s 2
2 / 2
2
A F distribution is skewed to the right and a 100%(1-) interval
for this ratio is given by
s2 1 12 s12
. 2 F / 2, v2 , v1
2
s 2 F / 2, v1 , v2 2 2
s2

74
Example 30 (interval estimation)
The output voltage of a power source is
known to have a standard deviation of
10V. Fifty reading are randomly selected,
yielding an average of 118V. Find a 95%
confidence interval for the population
mean voltage

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Example 31 (t- ditribution)
A new process has been developed that transforms ordinary
iron into a kind of super iron called metallic glass. This new
product is stronger than steel alloys and is much more
corrosion-resistant than steel. However it has a tendency to
become brittle at high temperature. It is desired to estimate
the mean temperature at which it become brittle. A random
sample of 20 pieces of metallic glass is selected. The
temperature at which brittleness is first detected is recorded
for each piece. The summary results give a sample mean X
of 600oF and a sample standard deviation s of 15oF. find
90% confidence interval for the mean temperature at which
metallic glass become brittle.

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
Problem

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

sol

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Problem

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Solution

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

Problem

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus

BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus