CVEN 675 Stochastic

Hydrology
Professor Anthony Cahill
What is Stochastic Hydrology (and
why would want to take it)?
We often have measurements of system
behavior, but not enough knowledge of
physics
Model our lack of knowledge as a random
(stochastic) element
Allows us to make predictions of system
behavior (within some confidence limits)
Examples Streamflow time series
USGS has gauging stations throughout
US
Wed like to predict streamflow estimate
flooding, recession, water availability, etc.
90000

80000

70000

60000

50000
cfs

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
11/5/2001 12/25/2001 2/13/2002 4/4/2002 5/24/2002 7/13/2002 9/1/2002 10/21/2002
date
 Streamflow time series, cont.
Difference between streamflow time series
and rolling dice dependence of
sequential observations
Can we model the time series (for
understanding)?
 Streamflow time series, cont.
Can we predict the streamflow in future
based on past behavior (forecasting)?
18000.

16000.

14000.

12000.

10000.

8000.

6000.

4000.

2000.

0.

0 50 100 150 200 250

 Example Rainfall time series
Different than river time series
intermittant in time, but still dependence
 Rainfall time series cont.
Use a different method than streamflow
time series for modeling and prediction
 Frequency analysis flood
frequency, storm frequency and
extreme values
Change the time period of interest so that
events are independent usually annual
maximum event
600

500

400

I2
I5
mm/hr

I10
300
I25
I50
I100
200

100

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
m in
 Frequency analysis, cont.
Used extensively for planning, runoff
estimation, etc.
We are working with rare extreme events
Need to treat tails carefully
 Spatial statistical methods
Spatial data sets ubiquitous in hydrology
Rain gauge data
Hydraulic conductivity
Soil moisture
 Spatial statistics cont.
Optimal interpolation of point data
kriging
This is both modeling and prediction
Very useful in GIS built into ArcGIS (I
think)
 If time permits
Fractals in hydrology
Stochastic groundwater models
 Housekeeping
Books
Brockwell and Davis, Introduction to Time
Series and Forecasting, 2nd ed.
Isaaks and Srivastava, Applied Geostatistics
Software
In Brockwell and Davis
I will provide some
You will write some
 Class Web Page
http://ceprofs.tamu.edu/cahill/teaching675.html
Ill put stuff up there
Including syllabus
 Grading
Homework 30%
Two tests 20% each
First test in in-class
Second test is a takehome due the day of the
final (i.e. no in class final), which is Monday,
December 15, 8AM.
Project 30%
 Project
Explore some question of interest to you in
stochastic hydrology
Required: a paper can be analysis or
review
Start thinking due dates
Topic October 1
1st draft November 19
Final version December 15
You can talk to me about project anytime
 Classroom
This course is TTVN to Corpus Christi
We will meet in WERC 049
Get used to disembodied interruptions
I will not be using Power Point usually
I will be using software