Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1.1
Data Information
1) Descriptive Statistics
2) Statistical Inference
Descriptive Statistics
1.5
Population Inference
Population
Statistic
Parameter
What can we infer about a Populations Parameters
based on a Samples? Statistics
Variables
7
Interval data
Real numbers, i.e. heights, weights, prices, etc.
Also referred to as quantitative or numerical.
Nominal Data
The values of nominal data are categories.
E.g. responses to questions about marital status, coded
as:
Single = 1, Married = 2, Divorced = 3, Widowed = 4
first class
next class: .355+.185=.540
:
:
around $35
(Refer also to Fig. 2.13 in your textbook)
Scatter Diagram
1.32
Measures of Variability
Range, Standard Deviation, Variance, Coefficient of Variation
Sample Mean
Population Mean
1.38
Statistics is a pattern language
1.39
Population Sample
Size N n
Mean
The Arithmetic Mean
1.40
E.g.
Data: {4, 4, 4, 4, 50} Range = 46
Data: {4, 8, 15, 24, 39, 50} Range = 46
The range is the same in both cases,
but the data sets have very different
distributions
Statistics is a pattern language
1.43 Population Sample
Size N n
Mean
Variance
Variance
1.44
population mean
population
The variance of size
a population is: sample mean
Sample Variance
1.50
P(AC) = 1 P(A)
P(A and B) = 0
Analogy:
Integers are Discrete, while Real Numbers are Continuous
Laws of Expected Value
1.69
1. E(c) = c
The expected value of a constant (c) is just the value of
the constant.
2. E(X + c) = E(X) + c
3. E(cX) = cE(X)
We can pull a constant out of the expected value
expression (either as part of a sum with a random
variable X or as a coefficient of random variable X).
Laws of Variance
1.70
1. V(c) = 0
The variance of a constant (c) is zero.
2. V(X + c) = V(X)
The variance of a random variable and a constant is just
the variance of the random variable (per 1 above).
3. V(cX) = c2V(X)
The variance of a random variable and a constant
coefficient is the coefficient squared times the variance of
the random variable.
Binomial Distribution
1.71
n=10 ?
P(X 4) = .967
Binomial Table
1.74
cumulative
(i.e. P(Xx)?)
P(X=2)=.3020
=BINOMDIST() Excel Function
1.76
P(success)
cumulative
(i.e. P(Xx)?)
P(X4)=.9672
Binomial Distribution
1.77
FYI:
Example 7.12
1.82
P(X=0) =
there is a very small chance there are no typos
Example 7.13
1.85
area=1
a b x
0
Calculating Normal Probabilities
1.95
0 1.6
-2.23 0 2.23
0 1.52
0 0.9 1.9
P(0.9 < Z < 1.9) = P(0 < Z < 1.9) P(0 < Z < 0.9)
=.4713 .3159
= .1554
Finding Values of Z
1.101
Similarly
P(-1.645 < Z < 1.645) = .90
Other Continuous Distributions
1.103
Student t Distribution,
Chi-Squared Distribution, and
F Distribution.
Student t Distribution
1.104
Figure 8.24
As the number of degrees of freedom increases, the t
distribution approaches the standard normal distribution.
Determining Student t Values
1.106
F.05,3,7
Denominator Degrees of Freedom : ROW
Numerator Degrees of Freedom : COLUMN
Determining Values of F
1.110
Thexprobability
1 2distribution
3 of4X is: 5 6
P(x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
The
P( sampling
) distribution of
6/36
is shown below:
1.0 1/36 5/36
1.5 2/36
2.0 3/36
4/36
2.5 4/36
)
3.0 5/36
3.5 6/36 3/36
P(
4.0 5/36
4.5 4/36 2/36
5.0 3/36
5.5 2/36
6.0 1/36 1/36
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Compare
1.115
1 2 3 4 5 6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
2.
Things we know:
1) X is normally distributed, therefore so will X.
2) = 32.2 oz.
3)
Example 9.1(b)
1.123
what is the probability that one bottle will what is the probability that the mean of
contain more than 32 ounces? four bottles will exceed 32 oz?
Sampling Distribution: Difference of two means
1.125
mean:
standard deviation:
Point Estimator
Interval Estimator
Point & Interval Estimation
1.129
We established in Chapter 9:
Table 10.1
Example 10.1
1.132
1.96
75
Given
n 25
therefore:
The lower and upper confidence limits are 340.76 and 399.56.
INTERPRET
Example 10.1
1.134
Since:
It follows that
Solve for n to get requisite sample size!
Selecting the Sample Size
1.138
Things we know:
We compute
1
That is, we will need to sample at least 239 trees to
have a
99% confidence interval of
Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing
1.143
The jury does not know which hypothesis is true. They must
make a decision on the basis of evidence presented.
Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing
1.144
P(Type I error) =
P(Type II error) =
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing (1)
1.148
The null hypothesis (H0) will always state that the parameter
equals the value specified in the alternative hypothesis (H1)
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing
1.149
H0: = 350
Reject I
Reject II
We know:
n = 400,
= 178, and
= 65
Reject H0 in favor of
Standardized Test Statistic
1.162
The x
test statistic is
z
/ n
x
x
4,759
i
21 .63
and 220 220
x 21 .63 22
z .91
/ n 6 / 220
p-value = P(Z < -.91) = .5 - .3186 = .1814
Chapter-Opening Example
1.170
Right-Tail Testing
1.172
AT&Ts argues that its rates are such that customers wont
see a difference in their phone bills between them and their
competitors. They calculate the mean and standard
deviation for all their customers at $17.09 and $3.87
(respectively).
z
-z.025 0 +z.025
Example 11.2
1.178
We find that:
Since z = 1.19 is not greater than 1.96, nor less than 1.96
we cannot reject the null hypothesis in favor of H1. That is
there is insufficient evidence to infer that there is a difference
between the bills of AT&T and the competitor.
PLOT POWER CURVE
1.179
Summary of One- and Two-Tail Tests
1.180
1.181
Sample
Inference
Statistic
Parameter
H1 : > 450
H0 : = 450
COMPUTE
Example 12.1
1.186
Since
and so:
Check Requisite Conditions
1.190
3. The variance of is
??
degrees of freedom
CI Estimator for (equal
1.204
variances)
The confidence interval estimator for
when the population variances are equal is given
by:
degrees of freedom
The sample variances are similar, hence we will assume that the
population variances are equal
COMPUTE
Example 13.2
1.208
Compare
or look at p-value
Confidence Interval
1.212
degrees of freedom.
Inference about the ratio of two
1.216
variances
Our null hypothesis is always:
H0 :
df1 = n1 - 1
df2 = n2 - 1
IDENTIFY
Example 13.6
1.217
F
CALCULATE
Example 13.6
1.219
.58 1.61 F
If we double the one-tail p-value Excel gives us, we have the p-value of
the test were conducting (i.e. 2 x 0.0004 = 0.0008). Refer to the text
and CD Appendices for more detail.