WORLDWIDE GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS

• Iran sanctions and nuclear program

• China’s economic growth slowdown
• Russia vs. Turkey tension
• ISIS terrorist strikes
• Syria refugee crisis
• Afghanistan vs. Armenia relations
• North Korea issues about launching
long-range rocket and hydrogen
bomb
• Currency wars EUR vs. USD
• Intervene of Saudi’s in Yemen
 IRAN’S SANCTIONS & NUCLEAR DEAL
• Termination of nuclear-related economic sanctions of Iran (crude
oil)
• Why? Because Iran has completed the necessary steps in a deal to
restrict its nuclear program.
• Blacklisted entities can now do business with Europe.
• Terrorism sanctions will not be removed.
• If there are violations → the sanctions would snap back into place
with a new Security Council resolution.
• Iran-US relations are unlikely to improve
 EFFECTS OF IRAN’S SANCTIONS & NUCLEAR DEAL
• With sanctions gone Iran
could boost its GDP growth
to some 5% in 2016-17.
• With the lifting of sanctions
→ Much crude oil to the
world
• Iran's full return to the
market could trigger a price
war with its arch-rival Saudi
Arabia, which is trying to
keep its own market share
by selling under the market
price.
 CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWDOWN
• Economy growth at its weakest pace
• Reasons:
 Global slowdown: Manufacturing contributes around 59% to the
Chinese GDP. The slowdown in the EU, Japan and South Korea
has led to reduced demand.
 Housing Sector Slowdown: Plunging housing prices
 Steel Sector: Decline in automobile sector, construction sector
(require steel and iron) & more concerns about the environment.
Therefore, reducing the demand for iron and steel (China is the
largest producer of steel).
When the steel prices go down due over production or lack of
demand → Chinese Economy would face some heat.
EFFECTS OF CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH
SLOWDOWN
• The prices of many
commodities have been
affected, notably crude
oil (Downward
pressure)
• Undermining the
prices of copper and
aluminium
• Gold = protection
against both inflation
and more general
financial instability
 EFFECTS OF CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH
SLOWDOWN
• Decrease of raw material prices
• U.S. companies that generate an important portion of their
revenues from China = negatively affected from lower domestic
demand in China (Increment of unemployment rate)
• The demise of the commodities fed by China’s assets (for instance;
real estate market collapses in some locations)
 RUSSIA – TURKEY CRISIS
• Russian SU-34 jet reportedly flew
into Turkish airspace despite
radar warnings.
• Moscow imposed a series of
economic sanctions against
Ankara.
 Turkish food entrance
 Turkish players ban from
Russian football clubs
 Turkish fleets
 The sale of charter holidays for
Russians to Turkey
 Construction projects with
Turkish firms in Russia unless a
special exemption is granted
 EFFECTS OF RUSSIA – TURKEY CRISIS
• The bad blood between Russia and Turkey is spreading to Armenia
and Azerbaijan
• If tourism, energy, trade, food and construction sectors are badly
affected → slowdown of Turkish economy and losing value of
Turkish Lira against USD and EUR
• Possible inflation rate increase in Turkey
• Less international investment for Turkey
 ISIS TERROR ATTACKS
• ISIS found the opportunities to attack in 2015
• ISIS wants its enemies to go all in Syria and Iraq in order to drain
their resources, create total chaos and present itself as defender of
the Muslims.
• Terrorism is designed to provoke an overreaction—either complete
disengagement or a massive show of force.
• Political instability in the Middle East and North Africa.
EFFECTS OF ISIS TERROR ATTACKS
 WORLDWIDE GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
& THEIR EFFECTS ON S.C.
2) Syria Crisis 2015
 Cutbacks and raw material shortages(malzeme y<A<z
 Less affected than other sectors
 Increment of oil and gold prices
 US dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss France to show some gains, whereas
currencies such as the Indian Rupee plummeted significantly.
 Very low transportation probability to Syria
 MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS &
THEIR EFFECTS ON PFIZER’S SUPPLY CHAIN
Morocco Situation
• Relationship with EU countries mostly (especially French and Spanish
companies)
• War on Iraq or Syria unrest have almost no impact on supply chain
• Oil from Saudi Arabia to Morocco
• 80% of materials from Europe, %20 of materials local
• No impact yet on petroleum based items (glass, plastics etc.) because of
oil price decrease
• Removing of subsidies by the government
• Price reforms from governtment about oil, wheat flour, energy, sugar,
dairy products etc.
• Removing of import ban since 2012
 MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS &
THEIR EFFECTS ON PFIZER’S SUPPLY CHAIN
Egypt Situation
• 65% imported materials, 35% local materials
• Not any critical effects of pharmaceutical raw material prices
• Syria unrest affects on economics
• Increment of inflation rate