Professional Documents
Culture Documents
&
Field Management
Flow Rates
Number of Wells
Recovery
A h φ ( 1 − S wi )
φ OOIP =
Integrated Team:
B oi
A = Geophysic P1
H,φ ,Swi, = Petrophysic + Geology P2
Gas
Boi = Res. Eng P3
Sealing
GOC
Oil
Spillpoint
WOC → Pc
Oil
FWL Water
1
History of Reserves
Definitions
2
Reserve Definition
Reserves Classification
* Discovered
* Recoverable
* Commercial
* Remaining
3
Reserves and Estimated Ultimate
Recovery
Reserves are the summation of the future production, from
a given date forward (up to the economic or contract limit)
25,000 140,000
120,000
20,000
100,000
1
5,000
80,000
TYPE OF DECLINE
:EXPONENTIAL
Di =0.00065(1
/DAY) 60,000
1
0,000 N=0.00000
qabd=5(BBL/D)
ENDTIME =8-2032
UR =1 23,597MBBL 40,000
5,000
20,000
0 0
5
“Reserves
Definitions”
6
Reserves & Resources
Resource
s
Discovere Undiscovere
d d
Commerciall Non
y
Commerciall
Recoverable y
Cummmulativ Reserves
e
Production
7
SPE/WPC/AAGP
Resources System
8
SPE/WPC/AAPG System
9
SPE/WPC/AAPG Resources
Classification System
Production
DISCOVERED RESERVES
COMMERCIAL
1P 2P 3P
CONTINGENT
DISCOVERED RESOURCES
SUB- Low Best High
COMMERCIAL Uncoverable
PROSPECTIVE
RESOURCES
UNDISCOVERED
Low Best High
Uncoverable
← Range of Uncertainty →
10
SPE/WPC/AAPG Resources
Classification System
Production
PROJECT STATUS
DISCOVERE
DISCOVERED
RESERVES On Lower
D
COMMERCIAL
Production
Under Development Risk
COMMERCIA 1P 2P 3P
L Planned for
CONTINGENT Develop.
DISCOVERED Develop.
RESOURCES Project
SUB- pending On
Develop.
Low Best High Maturit
COMMERCIAL Hold
Develop. Not
Uncoverable y
Viable
PROSPECTIVE Prospect
RESOURCES Higher
UNDISCOVERED Load Risk
Low Best High
Play
Uncoverable
← Range of Uncertainty → Key concepts
are
risk/maturity 11
and
Total Resources
IDENTIFIED UNDISCOVERED
DEMONSTRATED HYPOTHETICAL SPECULATIVE
IN IN
KNOWN UNDISCOVERED
MEASURED INDICATED INFERRED DISTRICTS DISTRICTS
RESERVES
PARAMARGINAL
RESOURCES
SUBMARGINAL
12
Commercial DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED
Noncommercial Field
Decreasing Risk
Risk
Is it going to be accepted?
Probability of success?
14
Uncertainty
15
What are the Sources of Risk?
16
Risk Analysis: Monte Carlo
1- Prob. Of Success
550 80%
500
70%
450
60%
Area, Net Pay, Porosity, 400
350 50%
Sw 300
40%
250
200 30%
150
20%
100
50 10%
P90
P10 P50
P50 P90
P10
17
Production Forecast
Reserve Estimation
RF
Deterministic Reserve on the P90, P50 and P10
STOIIP cases from simulatrion and histoty
matching. For These deterministicd estimate a
PRODUCTION FORECAST is necessary.
18
What are the Sources of Uncertainty?
For Volumes:
- Seismic
- Depth conversion
- Reservoir continuity
- Reservoir quality
- Fluid properties
- Well productivity
- Recovery factor
For Value:
- Future costs
- Future prices
Estimate
Range of Most
Uncertaint Reliable
y Estimate
Low
Estimate
- 50
Time 20
(years)
Recovery Factor
SPE / WPC
Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum
which, by analysis of geological and engineering data,
can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be
commercially recoverable, from a given date forward,
from known reservoirs and under current economic 22
23
Probable – SPE Definition
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves
which analysis of geological and engineering
data suggests are more likely than not to be
recoverable. In this context, when probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least a
50% probability that quantities actually
recovered will equal or expected the sum of
estimated proved plus probable reserves.
24
In general, probable reserves may include:
1. Reserves anticipated to be proved by normal step-out
drilling where sub-surface control is inadequate to
classify these reserves as proved;
2. Reserves in formations that appear to be productive
base on well log characteristics but lack core data
definitive tests and which are not analogous to
producing or proved reservoirs in the area;
3. Incremental reserves attributable to infill drilling that
could have been classified as proved if closer
statutory spacing had been approved at the time of
the estimate;
4. Reserve attributable to improved recovery methods
that have been established by repeated commercially
successful applications when:
(a) A project or pilot is planned but not in operation;
and
(b) Rock, fluid and reservoir characteristics appear
25
26
Possible – SPE
Definition
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves
which analysis of geological and engineering
data suggests are less likely to be recoverable
than probable reserves. In this context, when
probabilistic methods are used, there should
be at least a 10% probability that quantities
actually recovered will equal or expected the
sum of estimated proved plus probable plus
possible reserves.
27
In general, possible reserves may include:
1. reserves which, based on geological interpretations,
could possible exist beyond areas classified as
probable.
2. Reserves in formations that appear to be petroleum
bearing based on log and core analysis but may not
be productive at commercial rates;
3. Incremental reserves attributed to infill drilling that
are subject to technical uncertainty;
4. Reserves attributed to improved recovery methods
(a) a project or pilot is planned but not in operation;
when
and
(b) rock, fluid and reservoir characteristics are such
that a reasonable doubt exists that the project will
be commercial; and
5. Reserves in an area of the formation that appears to
be separated from the proved area by faulting and
geological interpretation indicates the subject area28 is
structurally lower than the proved area.
References
Andrew A. Young:”The Importance of
Reserves Definitions: Global Acceptance
and Consistent Rporting”, AJM 2004.
Louis Rozman:”A Comparison Between
Petroleum Reserve Reporting & Mineral
reserve Reporting”, AJM 2004.
Ian Paton:”Are Reserves and Intrinsic
Property of the Reservoir or The Result of
Engineering”, AJM 2004.
29