DRUNK DRIVING DATA ANALYSUS

FINAL QBS PROJECT – GROUP3

陳亮瑾｜潘冠臻｜Tanmoy｜蔡沂芯｜黃子芸｜楊岳璁
01 Motivation

02 Model Introduction
CONTENT
03 Shiny

04 Conclusion
PART ONE
Motivation
Speaker：蔡沂芯
 4 FACTS IN TAIWAN

Don't drink
Big issue in Taiwan TV & online news DUI Laws.
and drive.
.
TV & ONLINE NEWS
DUI PROBLEMS ARE WORLDWIDE
GOAL
1
Find some factors,
which may cause
impact on number of 2
drunk driving
Fit models to figure out
the reasons behind
people drink and drive
and try to improve DUI
issue
 PART TWO
Model Introduction
Speakers：黃子芸，陳亮瑾
 MODEL INTRODUCTION

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Raw data

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Standardized data

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Model 1 -Model with normal distribution

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Model 2 -Model with normal distribution

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Model 3 -Model with normal distribution

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Compare of m1,m2,m3

Input

Modeling

Interaction

Map2stan
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Compare of m1,m2,m3

Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method
map
y ~ Normal (𝜇 , 𝜎)

Input 𝜇 = 𝛼 + 𝛽uUnemployment + 𝛽cCigarPrice + 𝛽dDivorce

+ 𝛽bBirthRate + 𝛽oOilPrice + 𝛽eEcconomy

Modeling precis(m3)
Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a 0.00 0.05 -0.08 0.08
bu -0.26 0.08 -0.39 -0.13
bc -0.29 0.09 -0.43 -0.14
Compare bd -0.31 0.06 -0.40 -0.22
bb 0.36 0.06 0.26 0.46
bo 0.55 0.08 0.43 0.68
be -0.40 0.07 -0.51 -0.30
Interaction sigma 0.37 0.03 0.31 0.43
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method
map2stan
y ~ Normal (𝜇 , 𝜎)

Input 𝜇 = 𝛼 + 𝛽uUnemployment + 𝛽cCigarPrice + 𝛽dDivorce

+ 𝛽bBirthRate + 𝛽oOilPrice + 𝛽eEcconomy

Modeling
precis(m1.stan)
Mean StdDev lower 0.89 upper 0.89 n_eff Rhat
a 0.00 0.05 -0.09 0.08 17799 1
bu -0.26 0.09 -0.41 -0.12 14253 1
Compare bc -0.29 0.10 -0.45 -0.14 11793 1
bd -0.31 0.06 -0.41 -0.21 14912 1
Bb 0.36 0.07 0.25 0.47 12434 1
bo 0.55 0.09 0.42 0.69 14148 1
be -0.40 0.07 -0.51 -0.28 15794 1
Interaction sigma 0.41 0.04 0.34 0.47 14150 1
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method

Quadratic Approximation
MCMC Method
Method
Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Quadratic Approximation
vs.
MCMC Method

Quadratic Approximation
MCMC Method
Method
Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Poisson vs. Normal Distribution

Poisson Distribution
y ~ Poisson ( λ )
log( λ ) = 𝛼 + 𝛽uUnemployment + 𝛽cCigarPrice + 𝛽dDivorce
+ 𝛽bBirthRate + 𝛽oOilPrice + 𝛽eEcconomy
Input

precis(m3.poisson)
Modeling Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a 6.49 0.01 6.48 6.50
bu -0.07 0.01 -0.08 -0.05
bd -0.06 0.01 -0.06 -0.05
Compare bb 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.07
bo 0.11 0.01 0.09 0.12
bc -0.08 0.01 -0.09 -0.06
be -0.08 0.01 -0.09 -0.07

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION Poisson vs. Normal Distribution

Poisson Normal
Input

Modeling

Compare

Interaction
 MODEL INTRODUCTION The Interaction Model
The new results

Oil Price interacts with Cigarette Price

y ~ Normal (𝜇 , 𝜎)

Input 𝜇 = 𝛼 + 𝛽dDivorce + 𝛽bBirthRate + 𝛽uUnemployment+ 𝛽eEcconomy

+ 𝛽cCigarPrice + 𝛽iCigarPrice*OilPrice

Modeling precis(m1.interaction)
Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a -0.25 0.12 -0.44 -0.07
bd -0.26 0.07 -0.38 -0.15
Compare bb 0.26 0.08 0.13 0.38
bu -0.28 0.13 -0.49 -0.07
be -0.26 0.08 -0.39 -0.12
bc -0.77 0.12 -0.96 -0.59
bi -0.39 0.15 -0.62 -0.15
Interaction sigma 0.48 0.05 0.41 0.55
 MODEL INTRODUCTION The Interaction Model
The new results

Birth interacts with Unemployment

y ~ Normal (𝜇 , 𝜎)
Input 𝜇 = 𝛼 + 𝛽dDivorce + 𝛽cCigarPrice + 𝛽oOilPrice + 𝛽eEcconomy
𝛽uUnemployment +𝛽iUnemployment *BirthRate

Modeling precis(m2.interaction)
Mean StdDev 5.5% 94.5%
a 0.01 0.06 -0.09 0.11
bd -0.14 0.06 -0.24 -0.04
Compare bc -0.59 0.10 -0.75 -0.42
bo 0.39 0.09 0.24 0.53
be -0.36 0.08 -0.49 -0.23
bu -0.33 0.10 -0.49 -0.17
bi 0.11 0.07 0.00 0.23
Interaction sigma 0.46 0.04 0.39 0.53
 PART THREE
Shiny
Spearkers：潘冠臻，楊岳璁
 PART FOUR
Conclusion
Speaker：Tanmoy Kundu