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DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
9.4
Models for
Population Growth
In this section, we will:
Investigate differential equations
used to model population growth.
NATURAL GROWTH
dP
kP
dt
NATURAL GROWTH
Is that a reasonable
assumption?
NATURAL GROWTH
If k is positive,
the population increases.
If k is negative, it decreases.
LAW OF NATURAL GROWTH
P Ae kt
where A (= ±eC or 0) is an arbitrary constant.
LAW OF NATURAL GROWTH
P(0) = Aek·0 = A
dP
kP P(0) P0
dt
is: P(t ) P0 e kt
LAW OF NATURAL GROWTH
1 dP
k
P dt
This says that the relative growth rate (the growth rate
divided by the population size) is constant.
1 dP P
k 1
P dt K
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN. Equation 4
dP P
kP 1
dt K
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN.
dP P
0.08P 1
dt 1000
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN. Example 1
In fact, we can
prove that all
solution curves
that start below
P = 500 have
an inflection
point when P
is exactly 500.
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN.
Since
dP P
kP 1
dt K
we have:
dP
P(1 P / K ) k dt
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN.
K kt P 1
1 Ae kt
P K 1 Ae
Hence, K
P kt
1 Ae
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN.
P0
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN. Equation 7
K K P0
P(t ) kt
where A
1 Ae P0
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN.
which is to be expected.
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN. Example 2
k = 0.08
Therefore,
1000
P (t ) 0.08 t
1 9e
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN. Example 2
1000
P(80) 6.4
985.3
1 9e
LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQN. Example 2
The cursor
indicates that
t ≈ 55.
COMPARING THE MODELS
P(t ) P0e 2e
kt 0.7944 t
COMPARING THE MODELS Example 3
The equation 1 dP 2
k 1 k
P0 dt t 0 64
shows that the value of k for the logistic model is
very close to the value for the exponential model.
COMPARING THE MODELS Example 3
Then, the solution of the logistic equation
in Equation 7 gives
K 64
P (t ) kt
0.7944 t
1 Ae 1 Ae
where K P0 64 2
A 31
P0 2
So, 64
P (t ) 0.7944 t
1 31e
COMPARING THE MODELS Example 3
dP P m
kP 1 1
dt K P