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MARKET
MEASUREMENT
BA 315 - L.P.Chew
OUR TERMINOLOGY…
POTENTIAL= POSSIBILITIES
FORCAST = EXPECTATIONS
MARKET = INDUSTRY
SALES = COMPANY
Market Potential and Sales
Forecasting
• Potential: The maximum sales
reasonably attainable under a
given set of conditions within a
specified period of time.
–An upper limit or ceiling on
sales.
Market Potential and Sales
Forecasting
• Forecast: The amount of
sales expected to be
achieved under a set of
conditions within a specified
period of time.
–What you expect to sell.
Estimating Market Potential
• Determine the potential
buyers or users of the
product.
• Determine how many
individual customers are in
the potential groups of
buyers defined in step 1.
• Estimate the potential
purchasing or usage rate.
now review a regional
player…..DOBBS AUTO
Estimate the
potential
purchasing or
usage rate &
forecast
Forecasting
• Sales forecasts are essential for
production planning.
• Scenario planning, asking “what-if”
questions.
• Judgement methods, which rely on
pure opinions.
• Counting methods, which use
customer data.
• Time-series methods.
• Association/causal methods, model
relating market factors to sales.
Time-Series Methods
• Moving Averages - uses
averages of historical sales
figures to make a forecast.
• Exponential Smoothing - relies
on the historical sales data and
is more complicated than the
moving average.
• Extrapolation - linearly
extrapolates data.
Association/Causal Methods
• Correlation.
• Regression Analysis.
Market potential & sales forecasts
Market potential estimates and sales forecasts
complement each other in the marketing
planning process. Market potential data is used
to help the firm decide which opportunities to
pursue & the level of expenditure to apply to
each opportunity. The sales forecast is applied
to: making decisions on short term,tactical
issues; planning production inventory &
working capital; and the like.
The formulation of market strategy is
planned on the basis of the
marketing potential associated with
each of the firm's target segments
Once marketing strategy
plans are set, a sales forecast
can be developed and then
used to guide tactical
production, advertising, and
logistics decisions
Chapter 5. Organizational
Demand Analysis
• 2711- NEWSPAPERS
• 2721- MAGAZINES
• 2732- BOOK