2.

0 USAGE & DEMAND OF WATER

SUPPLY
 2.1 WATER DEMAND

•Weather •Business •Depends on •Recreational •Pipe leakage •Farms

(NRW)
Domestic

Public

Agricultural
Industrial
Commercial

•Social status complex type of areas •Fire fighting •Garden

•Water quality •Shops industry •Fountain •Water •Rearing
•Cost •Restaurants •Size of •Water Tank stealing
•Office industry cleansing •Illegal
•Sanitary
•Quantity

Non-revenue water
system •Number of •Road connection
•Types of workers or •Water quality cleansing •Evaporation
water supply space and cost from
•Consumer reservoirs
awareness •Good water
supply system
(15%)
•In Malaysia,
NRW 17-57%.
2.2 POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATION

 Population is the relevant factors in estimating water use in

future
 Elements of the system must have a shorter design life
(within 5 years (min) until 50 years (max)).
 The information about the population can be obtained from
 Statistic Department (Jabatan Perangkaan)
 District Office (Pejabat Daerah)
 State Economy Development Corporation (Pejabat Perbadanan
Kemajuan Ekonomi Negeri)
 Economy Planning Unit, Federal and State (Unit Perancangan
Ekonomi Persekutuan dan Negeri)
 Previous Technical Report
 a. Birth Rate

b. Mortality Rate

c. Migration Rate
Arithmetic Incremental
Simple Graphical Ratio
Increase Increase

Geometric Decreasing Rate Comparative

Increase of Growth Graphical
A. ARITHMETIC METHOD

 Assuming the number of the population

increased by fixed
 Formula

Pn = P + ni
 Pn = Current year
P = The final year population
n = Number of years
i = Average of the population
The total population within the decade 1930 - 1970 is given in Table 1. Determine
the total population of the two decades after 1970 with Arithmetic methods
Year Total Population
1930 25000
1940 28000
1950 34000
1960 42000
1970 47000

Year Total Population Population Increase

1930 25000
3000
1940 28000
6000
1950 34000
8000
1960 42000
5000
1970 47000
Total Increase 22000
Average / Decade 22000/4 = 5500 (i)
 Pn = P + ni
 Pn = 1990
P = 47000
n = 2 (1990 – 1970 = 20@2 decades)
i = 5500
 So….

P1990 = 47000 + 2(5500)

= 58000 persons
Table 1 below shows the additional population for Jasin District, Malacca for 1970
to 1990. calculate the total population for 2000 to 2010 by using Arithmetic Method.

Year Population

1970 23788

1980 29255

1990 41685
B. GEOMETRIC METHOD

 Percent increase in population over the

decades, is fix
 The future population depends on the
percentage increase
 Formula

Pn = P(1 + i/100)n
The total population within the decade 1930 - 1970 is given in Table 1. Determine
the total population of the two decades after 1970 with Geometric methods
Year Total Population
1930 25000
1940 28000
1950 34000
1960 42000
1970 47000

Year Total Population Increase Increase Percentage

Population
1930 25000
28000 – 25000 = (3000/25000) x 100 = 12%
3000
1940 28000
6000 (6000/28000) x 100 =
21.4%
1950 34000
8000 (8000/34000) x 100 =
23.5%
1960 42000
5000 (5000/42000) x 100 =
11.9%
1970 47000
Average Increse Percentage (12+21.4+23.5+11.9)/ 4 =
17.2%
 Pn = P(1 + i/100)n
 Pn = 1990
P = 47000
n = 2 (1990 – 1970 = 20)
i = 17.2

 So….
P1990 = 47000 (1 + 17.2/100)2
= 64558 persons
Table 1 below shows the additional population for Jasin District, Malacca for 1970
to 1990. calculate the total population for 2000 to 2010 by using Geometric Method.

Year Population

1970 23788

1980 29255

1990 41685
C. DECREASING RATE OF GROWTH METHOD

 This method is used when the population

growth was due to the saturation of
development
 Formula

Pn = P + (ifinal – iave)P
Estimate the number of population of a city in 1990, 2000, and 2010 based on the
data below

Year Population

1950 116000

1960 122000

1970 130000

1980 136000
 Year Population Population Percentage Decrease
Increase Population Percentage of
Increase Population
Increse
1950 116000 - - -
1960 122000 6000 (6000/116000) -
x 100 = 5.2%
1970 130000 8000 (8000/122000) -1.4%
x 100 = 6.6%
1980 136000 6000 (6000/130000) +2.0%
x 100 = 4.6%
Total 20000 +0.6%
Average a 20000/3 = 0.6/3 = 0.2%
Decade 6666
 P1990 = 13600 + (4.6% - 0.2%)(13600)
= ______
 P2000 = ______ + (4.4% - 0.2%)(______)
=
 P2010 = ______ + (4.2% - 0.2%)(______)
= ______
2.3 WATER DEMAN FORECASTING

 The quantity of water required for municipal

uses for which the water supply scheme has
to be designed requires following data:
 Water consumption rate (Per Capita Demand in
litres per day per head)
 Population to be served.
 Size of the city: Per capita demand for big cities is generally large as
compared to that for smaller towns as big cities have sewered houses.
 Presence of industries.
 Climatic conditions.
 Habits of people and their economic status.
 Quality of water: If water is aesthetically $ medically safe, the consumption
will increase as people will not resort to private wells, etc.
 Pressure in the distribution system.
 Efficiency of water works administration: Leaks in water mains and services;
and unauthorised use of water can be kept to a minimum by surveys.
 Cost of water.
 Policy of metering and charging method: Water tax is charged in two
different ways: on the basis of meter reading and on the basis of certain
fixed monthly rate.
 Design period is estimated based on the
following:
 Useful life of the component, considering
obsolescence, wear, tear, etc.
 Expandability aspect.
 Anticipated rate of growth of population, including
industrial, commercial developments & migration-
immigration.
 Available resources.
 Performance of the system during initial period.
 Services factor reflects the percent of
population to be supplied with water.
 Since Malaysia is a developing country, the
provision of adequate financial is a barrier to
100% water supply.
 Formula water demand estimation is as follows:
WDn = Pn x q x F1 x F2 ............ + Dm
where:
 WDn = water demand in year "n"
 Pn = the population forecast in the year "n"
q = water demand per capita
 F1 = service factor
 F2 = design factor
 Dm = additional demand
The following data was obtained from Taman Seri
Gemersik in 2000. calculate the volume of water
demand (WD) in 2008.

Total household = 1200 households

Ave household members = 6 persons
Per capita water consumption = 200liters/person/day
Population growth = 2.7% per year
Institutional water need = 1/3 of the population needs
Design Factor = 2.5
NRW percentage = 20%
Water supply coverage = 90%