Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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How Credible are HDM-4 Outputs?
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Approach to Calibration
• Input data
Must have a correct interpretation of the
input data requirements
Have a quality of input data appropriate for
the desired reliability of results
• Calibration
Adjust model parameters to enhance the
accuracy of its representation of local
conditions
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Data & Calibration
Calibration
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Calibration Focus
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Estimating Calibration Coefficients
Model
Defect (%)
Extent of
We attempt to
minimize the
"mistake"
Actual
deterioration
Time
Un-calibrated Calibrated
Progression
Predicted
Progression
Predicted
Time Re quire d
Experimental
Ye ars
Surveys and
Research
M onths
Field Surveys
We e ks
Desk Studies
Re source s
Limite d M ode rate Significant Re quire d
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Calibration Levels
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Level 2 - Calibration
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Level 3 - Adaptation
• Comprises
Structured research, medium term
Advanced data collection, long term
• Evaluates trends and interactions by
observing performance over long time period
• May lead to alternative local
relationships/models
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Important Considerations
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Bias and Precision
Low Bias Low Bias
A High Precision
B Low Precision
Data
Predicted
Predicted
Data
Observ ed Observ ed
Predicted
Data
Data
Observ ed Observ ed
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Calibration Adjustments
A Rotation B Translation
Trans lation
R otation
Observ ed = Predicted Observ ed = Predicted
Predicted
Predicted
D ata D ata
Observed Observed
Trans lation
Rotation and
C Translation
R otation
Observ ed = Predicted
Predicted
D ata
Observed
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Correction Factors
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HDM-4 Road Deterioration
Calibration Factors
Used to adjust
predicted to observed
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Typical Relationship
Initiation of Cracking
Calibration Model
Factor Coefficients
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Road Deterioration Calibration
Factors
Calibration Deterioration
Factor Model
Kddf Drainage Factor
Kcia All Structural Cracking - Initiation
Kciw Wide Structural Cracking - Initiation
Kcpa All Structural Cracking - Progression
Kcpw Wide Structural Cracking - Progression
Kcit Transverse Thermal Cracking - Initiation
Kcpt Transverse Thermal Cracking - Progression
Krid Rutting - Initial Densification
Krst Rutting - Structural Deterioration
Krpd Rutting - Plastic Deformation
Krsw Rutting - Surface Wear
Kvi Ravelling - Initiation
Kvp Ravelling - Progression
Kpi Pothole - Initiation
Kpp Pothole - Progression
Keb Edge Break
Kgm Roughness - Environmental Coefficient
Kgp Roughness - Progression
Ktd Texture Depth - Progression
Ksfc Skid Resistance
Ksfcs Skid Resistance - Speed Effects
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Cracking Initiation Calibration
Crack Initiation
100
90
Percent Area of Cracking
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20
Years
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Cracking Progression Calibration
Crack Progression
100
Percent Area of Cracking
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20
Years
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Road Deterioration Calibration (1)
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Road Deterioration Calibration (2)
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Kazakhstan Calibration Example
Without Calibration Scenario
14.00
Observed Roughness Values (IRI, m/km)
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
Bias = Mean Observed / Mean
Predicted = 1.14
2.00
10.00
8.00
Roughness 6.00
surveys 4.00
Bias = Mean Observed / Mean
three years 2.00
Predicted = 1.03
apart
0.00
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00
Predicted Roughness Values (IRI, m/km)
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Road Deterioration Calibration (3)
• Controlled Studies
collect
detailed data over time on traffic,
roughness, deflections, condition, rut
depths, etc.
sections must be continually monitored
long-term (5 year) commitment to quality
data collection
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What to Focus On?
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Sensitivity Classes
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Sensitivity Classes
Sensitivity Impact Parameter Important for Parameter Important for
2/ 3/ 4/
Class Elasticity Total VOC VOC Savings
S-I > 0.50 kp - parts model exponent kp - parts model exponent
New Vehicle Price New Vehicle Price
CSPQI - parts model
roughness term
C0SP - parts model constant
term
S-II 0.20 - 0.50 Roughness E0 - speed bias correction
E0 - speed bias correction ARVMAX - max. rectified
Average Service Life Average velocity
Annual Utilisation CLPC - labour model exponent
Vehicle Weight
S-III 0.05 - 0.20 Aerodynamic Drag Coefficient Beta - speed exponent
Beta - speed exponent Vehicle Age in km
BW - speed width effect C0LH - labour model constant
Calibrated Engine Speed term
CLPC - labour model exponent Labour Cost
C0SP - parts model constant Hourly Utilisation Ratio
term BW - speed width effects
CSPQI - parts model Number of tires per Vehicle
roughness term New tire Cost
Crew/Cargo/Passenger Cost Lubricants Cost
Desired Speed Crew/Cargo/Passenger Cost
Driving Power Vehicle Weight
Energy Efficiency Factors Number of Passengers
Fuel Cost
Hourly Utilisation Ratio
Interest Rate
Projected Frontal Area
S-IV <0.05 All Other Variables All Other Variables
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Sensitivity Classes
Sensitivity Impact Parameter Outcomes Most Impacted
Class Elasticity Pavement Resurfacing Economic
Performance and Surface Return on
Distress Maintenance
S-I > 0.50 Structural Number 2/
Modified Structural Number2/
Traffic Volume
Deflection3/
Roughness
S-II 0.20 - Annual Loading
0.50 Age
All cracking area
Wide cracking area
Roughness-environment factor
Cracking initiation factor
Cracking progression factor
S-III 0.05 - Subgrade CBR (with SN)
0.20 Surface thickness (with SN)
Heavy axles volume
Potholing area
Rut depth mean
Rut depth standard deviation
Rut depth progression factor
Roughness general factor
S-IV < 0.05 Deflection (with SNC)
Subgrade compaction
Rainfall (with Kge)
Ravelling area
Ravelling factor
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Information Quality Levels
HIGH LEVEL DATA
System Performance
IQL-5 Performance
Monitoring
Planning and
IQL-4 Structure Condition Performance
Evaluation
Programme
Frictio Analysis or
IQL-3 Ride Distress
n Detailed
Planning
Project Level or
Detailed
IQL-2 Programme
Project
IQL-1 Detail or
Research
LOW LEVEL DATA
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Information Quality Levels
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Time Spend on Different
Phases of Analysis
Model
Calibration
10%
Establishing
Verification of
Reliable Input Running HDM-4
Output
Data 10%
20%
40%
Treatments,
Triggers and
Resets
20%
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Can We Believe HDM-4 Output?
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For Further Information
• A guide to
calibration and
adaptation
• Reports on various
HDM calibrations
from:
www.lpcb.org
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