Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Default databases
Building inventory, bridge inventory, …
Losses
Repair costs, casualties, direct & indirect economic losses
HAZUS - Pros
Integrated earthquake loss estimation methodology
Default databases
Losses for a scenario earthquakes or ground-shaking maps
Various loss measures (repair costs, number of casualties, …)
HAZUS - Cons
Not fully probabilistic (expected scenario/annual losses only)
Computational efficiency (GIS overhead)
Flexibility (not open-source)
Presentation Topics
1) Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
a) USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
b) Probabilistic Building Damage & Risk Maps
2) Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake
Provisions in Building Codes
3) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake
for Response (PAGER) – D. Wald & P. Earle
4) An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative
Seismic Risk Assessment of Woodframe
Houses (ResRisk-WH)
5) Open-Source Risk Modeling Software
("OpenRisk") – K. Porter & C. Scawthorn
1) Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
FY06 & FY07 OMB Recommendation:
Improve earthquake risk estimates by integrating the
USGS Geologic Hazards Program seismic monitoring
with FEMA hazard loss estimation capabilities.
-3
10
-4
10
-5
10
-6
10 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
10 10 10 10 10
Loss / Total Value
Applications to date:
Shelby County & Memphis Metro Bridges (Karaca & Luco for
5th National Seismic Conference on Bridges & Highways)
“Loss Curve”
If the losses Fragility
for individual buildings PSHA Output
were independent, a combined
loss curve could be obtained via a simple convolution, e.g., …
P[ L1 L2 l ] P[ L1 L2 l | L2 l2 ] P[ L2 l2 ]
l2
3) Sum (with event weights) the loss curves for each event, e.g., …
[ L1 L2 l ] P[ L1 L2 l | Event i] [ Event i]
i
1) Input on USGS Role in Risk Field
FY05 USGS Venture Capital Fund Project
Proposed “National Seismic Risk Maps”
M. Petersen and N. Luco met with …
FM Global
AIR Worldwide Corporation
RMS (Risk Management Solutions)
ABS Consulting (formerly EQE)
CGS (California Geological Survey)
CEA (California Earthquake Authority)
FEMA & NIBS (with D. Applegate)
1) Input on USGS Role in Risk Field
Stakeholders encouraged …
Research into vulnerabilities and risk analysis, in
addition to hazard
Results that they could compare with and/or utilize
Transparent risk calculations for sensitivity
studies
Contribution to exposure data (e.g., by USGS
Geography)
Evaluations of available vulnerabilities
Analyses for “public” buildings (e.g., homes)
1) Input on USGS Role in Risk Field
Stakeholders discouraged …
Development of risk modeling software
Risk results that become de facto standard
(i.e., do be clear about uncertainties/shortcomings
of results)
Competition
=
(Memphis, TN)
Building Risk Maps
(Loss | DS = ds)
Slight Damage
Example Building Risk Maps
Extensive Damage
Example Building Risk Maps
Slight Damage
Low-Code
High-Code
Building Damage Maps
P[ DS ds] P[ DS ds | SA sa ] f SA ( sa ) dsa
sa
Hazard
Loss/Risk
Inventory
Reduced Risk?
Cost?
Fragility/Vulnerability
HAZUS Building Fragilities
Capacity
Curve
Capacity
Spectrum Fragility Curve Input:
Method Inelastic Spectral
Displacement
Damage
State
Definition
Revamping HAZUS Fragilities
Capacity
Curve
Damage
State
Definition
Time
History
Analysis
Revamping HAZUS Fragilities
Reduced Risk
Cost
Presentation Topics
1) Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
a) USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
b) Probabilistic Building Damage & Risk Maps
2) Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake
Provisions in Building Codes
3) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake
for Response (PAGER) – D. Wald & P. Earle
4) An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative
Seismic Risk Assessment of Woodframe
Houses (ResRisk-WH)
5) Open-Source Risk Modeling Software
("OpenRisk") – K. Porter & C. Scawthorn
Relevant Other USGS Studies/Products: PAGER
will distribute alarms via pager, mobile phone, and e-mail that will include a
concise estimate of the earthquake’s impact.
will also report the earthquake location, magnitude, and depth, an estimate
of the number of people exposed to varying levels of shaking, a description
of the region’s vulnerability, and a measure of confidence in the system’s
impact assessment.
Pager Process
1. Ground
Shaking
Estimate 2. Population
Data
3. Ground Shaking
and Exposure
4. Impact Estimate
Presentation Topics
1) Improving USGS Input into HAZUS
a) USGS-FEMA Plan on Future Opportunities
b) Probabilistic Building Damage & Risk Maps
2) Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake
Provisions in Building Codes
3) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake
for Response (PAGER) – D. Wald & P. Earle
4) An Interactive Web Tool for Quantitative
Seismic Risk Assessment of Woodframe
Houses (ResRisk-WH)
5) Open-Source Risk Modeling Software
("OpenRisk") – K. Porter & C. Scawthorn
4) Plan for Residential Risk Web Tool
Ultimate goal: An interactive web tool for
quantitative seismic risk assessment of
woodframe houses (“ResRisk–WH”)
Phase I plan for FY07 (w/ N. Field & K. Porter)
Java module – Standalone & OpenSHA application
Input: Zip code
Vulnerability relation (dropdown menu)
Output: Loss exceedance probability curve
( including probability of exceeding
deductible, expected loss )
Review of IBC Seismic Design Maps
Loss Exceedance Probability Curve
Loss Ratio
4) Plan for Residential Risk Web Tool
“Phase II” Plan for Future Work
Supplement available vulnerability relations to
adequately represent exposure in Northridge ‘94
Validate/calibrate vulnerability relations using data
from Northridge ’94 earthquake
Within each census tract, one site per NEHRP site classification
Components of Risk/Loss Analysis
HAZARD
e.g., National Seismic Hazard Maps, ShakeMaps
EXPOSURE
e.g., HAZUS Inventory Data, USGS Geography
RESILIENCY
e.g., Insurance, Cat. Bonds, Emergency Response