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Modeling Derechos using

WRF UEMS
By Joshua Anzalone
Introduction

• The purpose of this project was to learn how to model derechos


using WRF UEMS in the ubuntu operating system.

• Then the modeled data would be compared to the real data to see
how well the modeled data ran.
Introduction Continued

• Researchers can use WRF to make simulations based on either the


actual atmospheric conditions or the ideal conditions.

• There are currently two dynamical solvers: Advanced Research


WRF (ARW) and Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). ARW was
developed and maintained by NCAR, while NMM was developed by
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (UCAR, 2017).
Introduction Continued

• Unified Environmental Modeling System (UEMS) incorporates both


NOAA and WRF systems into one forecasting system.

• This system has been simplified to encourage people to use it in


the operational, private, and university research communities
(Chapter 1, 2016).
What is a Derecho?
• A derecho is a widespread wind storm that occurs in one direction in a relatively straight path.

• This storm extends 400km or greater in length. The wind gusts are at least 93km/h for most of its
duration.

• It also included gusts that are separated far apart that are at least 121km/h.

• Furthermore, derechos are associated with curved or bowed shaped showers or thunderstorms.
These are called bow echoes.

• In addition, derecho winds are caused by downbursts.

• The derechos development is tied with the bow echoes.

• It was further mentioned that large scale heat waves are favorable conditions for derechos to form
(Corfidi, 2017).
Experimental Methods

• Working WRF UEMS environment


• Set up the domain by going into dwiz
• Once this is ready, go to the 2012 derecho directory in the runs
directory.
• ems_prep –dset narr –domain 1,2,3 –date 20120628 –length 72.
• ems_run –domain 1,2,3 length 72h.
• ems_post –domain 1, 2, or 3
• HTML link has been generated from ems_post, the data can be observed.
• Extract the modeled data to an excel spreadsheet.
• Then use weather underground for the actual data to extract to excel.
• Observed the modeled data compared to the actual data.
WRF Atmospheric Equations that are Used to
Model Data
Equation of state:

Conservation of energy:
Conservation of mass:

Conservation of momentum:

U, v, and w are the velocity components in the x, y, z directions, theta is


the potential temperature, and p is the air density.
Fx, Fy, and Fz are the elements of friction.
T is the absolute temperature.
The Exner function (pi) = (p/po)^(Rd/cp). Here p is the pressure, po=
1000 hPa, specific heat or cp= 1004.5 JK^(-1) kg^(-1), and the gas
constant for dry air or Rd=(2/7)cp (Bianco, 2008).
Results: 2012 Derecho
40
Temperature vs Time Humidity vs Time
35
30 100
Temperature (°C)

80

Humidity (%)
25
60
20 40 Humidity%
Temp. °C
15 20 Humidity% Model
Temp. °C Model
10 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
5 Time (h)
0
0 10 20 30 Time (h) 40 50 60 70 Figure 3: 2012 derecho humidity vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
Figure 1: 2012 derecho temperature vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
Wind Speed vs Time
Pressure vs Time 20

Wind Speed (m/s)


1016
15
1014
Pressure (hPa)

10
1012 Wind Speed m/s
Pressure hPa 5 Wind Speed m/s Model
1010
1008 Pressure hPa Model 0
0 20 40 60 80
1006
Time (h)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time (h)
Figure 4: 2012 derecho wind speed vs time graph. In the real data, values that
were calm winds were given a value of 1m/s. Orange is the modeled Data.
Figure 2: 2012 derecho pressure vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
Results: 2012 Derecho Continued

• Figure 1 shows the temperature with respect to time. The


temperature of the modeled data and the real data do not line up
perfectly. There are some large differences between data points.
• Figure 2 shows the pressure with respect to time. The modeled
data and the real data tend to line up.
• Figure 3 shows the humidity with respect to time. The modeled
data does not change that much, but the real data tends to
change a lot more.
• Figure 4 shows the wind speed with respect to time. The modeled
data shows that a storm is passing through, but the real data does
not support this.
Results: 2013 Derecho
Temperature vs Time Humidity vs Time
40.00 120
Temperature (C)

100

Humidity (%)
30.00 80
20.00 60
Temp.°C Humidity %
10.00 40
Temp.°C Model 20 Humidity % Model
0.00 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Time (h)

Figure 5: 2013 derecho temperature vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data. Figure 7: 2013 derecho humidity vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.

1,018.00
Pressure vs Time Wind Speed vs Time
1,016.00 20.00

Wind Speed (m/s)


1,014.00
15.00
Pressure (hPa)

1,012.00
1,010.00 10.00
Pressure hPa Wind Speed m/s
1,008.00
5.00 Wind Speed m/s Model
1,006.00 Pressure hPa Model
1,004.00 0.00
1,002.00 0 10 20 30 40
1,000.00 Time (h)
0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Figure 8: 2013 derecho wind speed vs time graph. In the real data, values that
Figure 6: 2013 derecho pressure vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data. were calm winds were given a value of 1m/s. Orange is the modeled Data.
Results: 2013 Derecho Continued

• Figure 5 shows the temperature with respect to time. The real data and
the modeled data tend to line up.

• Figure 6 shows the pressure with respect to time. Here both the real and
modeled data tend to line up.

• Figure 7 shows the humidity with respect to time. The beginning and the
end tends to line up, but the middle does not.

• Figure 8 shows the wind speed with respect to time. Here the real data
does not support that there was a severe storm as the modeled data
suggests. Although it can be noted, that both suggest there is a storm at
the end of the simulation.
Results: 2014 Derecho
Humidity vs Time
Temperature vs Time
120
40
100
Temperature (C)

Humidity (%)
30 80
20 60
Temperature °C Humidity %
40
10 Humidity % Model
Temperature °C Model 20
0
0
0 10 20 30 40
0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Time (h)

Figure 9: 2014 derecho temperature vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data. Figure 11: 2014 derecho humidity vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.

Pressure vs Time Wind Speed vs Time


1012 20

Wind Speed (m/s)


1010
Pressure (hPa)

15
1008
1006 10
Wind Speed m/s
1004 Pressure hPa 5
1002 Wind Speed m/s Model
Pressure hPa Model 0
1000
0 10 20 30 40
998
Time (h)
0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Figure 12: 2014 derecho wind speed vs time graph. In the real data, values that
Figure 10: 2014 derecho pressure vs time graph. Blue is the modeled Data. were calm winds were given a value of 1m/s. Orange is the modeled Data.
Results: 2014 Derecho Continued

• Figure 9 shows the temperature with respect to time. The real data and
the modeled data tend to not line up.

• Figure 10 shows the pressure with respect to time. Here both the real
and modeled data tend to line up.

• Figure 11 shows the humidity with respect to time. The modeled data
and the real data do not line up.

• Figure 12 shows the wind speed with respect to time. Here the real data
does not support that there was a storm that is as severe as the modeled
data suggests.
Analysis

• The derechos were major wind events.

• The modeled data showed that these derechos took place, however the
real data does not support the modeled data.

• There are some reasons on why this could occur though:


• The data was collected hourly, so there are large gaps.
• The gusts in the real data were not taken into account, and the model data
could be taking those speeds into account.
• There is also the possibility that the times are off. I did take this into account
and looked at data hours after and before the event occurred to see if the data
was off, but if it were off by a day or so then that would change the data. I did
make sure to run the correct times on the ems_run, but something could have
gone wrong.
• It could also be off by a factor if the conversion is not correct. It should be
correct though since the modeled data is in m/s and the real data is in m/s. But
if the modeled data was km/s, then again that would change the data.
Analysis Continued

• The pressure in all of the storms did line up though, so that


supports that the times are correct. Which would mean that the
large gaps in time could be the reason that the data is off.

• The temperature only lined up in the 2013 model. It might also be


possible that the refences in the modeled data versus the
references in the real data may be off. It shouldn’t make a huge
difference though.
Conclusion

• Overall, there was a lot to be gained from this project.

• I learned how to operate ubuntu much better than I could before


this project started.

• I learned how to model data and then how to interpret that data.

• Even though my results were not what I was looking for, I learned
what I could try differently next time I run a model to get better
results.
References

• Bianco, Laura. (2008). The Weather Research & Forecasting Model WRF. Retrieved
from:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/classes/at7500/Bianco_Presenta
tionWRF.pdf
• Chapter 1. (2016). Chapter 01 – Introduction to the UEMS. Retrieved from:
http://strc.comet.ucar.edu/software/uems/userguide/emsguideV15_chapter01.pdf
• Corfidi Steohen, Evans Jeffry, Johns Robert, et al. (2017). About Derechos.
Retrieved from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm
• UCAR NCAR. (2017). Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Retrieved from:
https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model.
• Weather Underground. (2017). Weather Underground. Retrieved from:
https://www.wunderground.com/
Any Questions?