Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Payments and
Exchange Rates
The Balance of Payments Account
4
Current account balance:% of GDP
-1
-2
-3
-4
Current account balance as % of
GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003
5
4
Current account balance:% of GDP
1
UK
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Current account balance as % of
GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003
5
4
Current account balance:% of GDP
1
UK
0
-1
-2 USA
-3
-4
Current account balance as % of
GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003
5
4
Current account balance:% of GDP
3
Japan
2
1
UK
0
-1
-2 USA
-3
-4
The Balance of Payments Account
2.20
2.00
$ price of £
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
Q of £
Determination of the rate of exchange
2.20
2.00
$ price of £
1.80
1.60
1.40
D by USA
1.20
Q of £
Determination of the rate of exchange
S by UK
2.20
2.00
b a
$ price of £
1.80
1.60
1.40
D by USA
1.20 QS
QD Q of £
Determination of the rate of exchange
S by UK
2.20
2.00
$ price of £
1.80
1.60 d c
1.40
D by USA
1.20
QS QD Q of £
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
– shifts in currency demand and supply
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
S1
1.80
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
0.80
Q of £
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
S1
1.80
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
0.80
Q of £
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
1.80
S1
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
D2
0.80
Q of £
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
– shifts in currency demand and supply
• differences in interest rates
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
1.80
S1
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
D2
0.80
Q of £
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
– shifts in currency demand and supply
• differences in interest rates
• differences in inflation rates
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
1.80
S1
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
D2
0.80
Q of £
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
– shifts in currency demand and supply
• differences in interest rates
• differences in inflation rates
• relative investment prospects
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
1.80
S1
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
D2
0.80
Q of £
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
– shifts in currency demand and supply
• differences in interest rates
• differences in inflation rates
• relative investment prospects
• change in aggregate demand
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
1.80
S1
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
D2
0.80
Q of £
Exchange Rates
• The rate of exchange
– individual rates of exchange
– exchange rate index
• Determination of exchange rates
– the equilibrium exchange rate
– appreciation and depreciation
– shifts in currency demand and supply
• differences in interest rates
• differences in inflation rates
• relative investment prospects
• change in aggregate demand
• speculation
Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
1.80
S1
S2
1.60
€/£
1.40
1.20
D1
1.00
D2
0.80
Q of £
Exchange Rates and Balance of Payments
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003
$/£
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003
Index
$/£ 1990=100
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003
Index
$/£ 1990=100
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
The Origins of the Euro
US interest
rate
Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar
US interest
rate
ECB
interest rate
Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar
US interest
$/€ rate
ECB
interest rate
$/€
Globalisation and the Problem of Instability
• Financial interdependence
– size of international financial flows
• Rescheduling debt
– rescheduling official loans
– rescheduling commercial bank loans
Debt and Developing Countries