Population Forecasting using

Geometric Increase Method

Presented by:
Bhantooa Luvindraj (1014582)
Boyjoo Manoj (1014504)
Bundhoo Deepshika (1017841)
Ramgoolam Oomeshnathsingh (1019085)
Seburn Indra (1015380)
 Population Forecasting

Population Forecasting consists of mathematical models which are

used to analyse changes in population numbers.

There are several factors affecting changes in population:

 Increase due to births
 Decrease due to deaths
 Increase/Decrease due to migration
 Increase due to annexation

All the above data can be obtained from the census population records.
In Mauritius, these information can be obtained at the Central
Statistics Office (CSO)
…Population Forecasting
The various mathematical methods available are generally classified in
two categories: Short term methods and Long term methods

Short term methods (1-10 years)

 Arithmetic progression
 Geometric progression
 Incremental increase method
 Decreasing rate of growth
 Simple graphical method

Long term methods (10-50 years)

 Comparative graphical method
 Ratio method
 Logistic curve method
 Why is population forecasting important?
 Population forecasting is an integral part of design. It is essential to take into account
the population at the end of the design period.

 Fundamental to planning
(Assumptions and estimates used in determining sewage flow have a permanent
effect on planning decisions and outcomes)

 Premature and excessive investments in works

 System failure and hence increasing customer complaints

 Environmental impact

 Essential to service provider so as to know the spare capacity of the system

 Identification of weak links of system

Ability to accept new/unexpected demands
When can projections be carried out?
Projections are likely to be carried out for the design of a
system. A service provider should have knowledge of current
demand/flow and anticipated future projections at all times.

Projections should be determined:

 Once the needs of the service are already known and the
objectives determined

 Stakeholder requirements have been identified

 Adequate raw data on existing flows/demands is available

 Geometric Increase Method
The basic model for geometric change in population size is:
P = P o λt
which is based on the hypothesis that rate of change of population is
proportional to the population. According to this, method it is assumed that the
rate of increase of population growth in a community is proportional to the
present population.

 Po denotes initial size,

 P denotes population at time t
 t denotes time (measured in decades)
 λ is the ‘finite population multiplier’ which can be interpreted as λ = ℮i
for continuous change or λ = 1+ i for discrete (constant) ‘compound
interest’ or ‘birth-pulse’ populations.
Example
Predict the population for the years 2023, 2033, and 2043
from the following census figures of a town using
geometric method.

Year 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013

Population: 60 65 63 72 79 89 97 120
(thousands)
 Solution

1. USING DISCRETE METHOD (RATE OF CHANGE IS

CONSTANT)

 P = Poλt
 λ = (1+ i) for discrete change
 Therefore P = Po (1+i)t where,
 P0 : Initial population size
 P: Population size at time t
 i: Average percentage increase per decade
 t: Number of decades
…Solution (using discrete method)
Year Population: Increment Percentage Increment
(thousands) per Decade per Decade
1943 60 - -
1953 65 +5 (5÷60) x 100 = +8.33
1963 63 -2 (2÷65) x 100 = -3.07
1973 72 +9 (9÷63) x 100 = +14.28
1983 79 +7 (7÷72) x 100 = +9.72
1993 89 +10 (10÷79) x 100 = +12.66
2003 97 +8 (8÷89) x 100 = +8.98
2013 120 +23 (23÷97) x 100 = +23.71
Net values - +60 +74.61
Averages - 8.57 10.66
…Solution (using discrete method)Solution
 Population for 2023 = Population 2013 x (1+i/100) t
= 120 x (1+10.66/100), where i = 10.66, t = 1
= 120 x 110.66/100 = 132.8

 Population for 2033 = Population 2013 x (1+i/100) t

= 120 x (1+10.66/100)2, where i = 10.66, t = 2
= 120 x 1.2245 = 146.95

 Population for 2043 = Population 2013 x (1+i/100) t

= 120 x (1+10.66/100)3, where i = 10.66, t = 3
= 120 x 1.355 = 162.60
 2. CONTINOUS METHOD (RATE OF
CHANGE IS INCREASING)
𝑑𝑃
 𝑃
=𝑖 . 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑃
 ‫= 𝑃 ׬‬ ‫ 𝑖 ׬‬. 𝑑𝑡
 ln 𝑃 = 𝑖𝑡 + 𝑐
 (When t = 0, P = Po, therefore c = ln Po)
 ln 𝑃 = 𝑖𝑡 + ln 𝑃𝑜
 ln 𝑃 − ln 𝑃𝑜 = 𝑖𝑡
ln 𝑃
 ( ln 𝑃 − ln 𝑃𝑜 = )
ln 𝑃𝑜
ln 𝑃
 ln 𝑃𝑜
= 𝑖𝑡
𝑃
 𝑃𝑜
= 𝑒 𝑖𝑡
 𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 𝑒 𝑖𝑡
…Solution (using continuous method)

 P = Poλt
 λ = ℮ i for continuous change
 P0 : Initial population size
 P: Population size at time t
 i: Average percentage increase per decade
 t: Number of decades

 The average rate of increase ‘i’ is calculated in the same

way as for the discrete change.
…Solution (using continuous method)

 Population for 2023 = Population 2013 x e it

= 120 x e(10.66/100 *1), where i = 10.66, t = 1
= 133.50

 Population for 2033 = Population 2013 x eit

=120 x e(10.66/100 *2), where i = 10.66, t = 2
=148.52

 Population for 2043 = Population 2013 x e it

=120 x e(10.66/100 *3), where i = 10.66, t = 3
= 165.22
…solution (comparison of results)

Year Forecasted Population

Discrete Method Continuous Method
2023 132.80 133.50
2033 146.95 148.52
2043 162.60 165.22
…solution (comparison of results)

Geometric Progression Curve

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Discrete Method Continuous Method

…solution (comparison of results)

Geometric Progression curve

170

165

160

155

150

145

140

135

130
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Discrete Method Continuous Method

…solution (comparison of results)

 In the graph, we can conclude that values obtained from

the continuous method are higher than those obtained
from the discrete method. This is because in the discrete
method, the rate of increase of population is constant
whereas the continuous method has an increasing rate of
increase of population.

 In order to calculate the population number for any other

specific year within the decade, the same graph can be
used.
 Advantages of Geometric Progression

 Geometric extrapolation is desirable for short intervals

 Simple method
 When forecasting for a new city
 Geometric rates are preferable to arithmetic rates for the
extrapolation of decreases in population over a series of
years
 Limitations of Geometric Progression

 When the geometric rate of increase is high and the

period of time is long
 If the accuracy of the basic census figures is subject to
considerable doubt
 Where the death rate is declining while the birth rate
remains nearly constant
Population Forecasting in the Design of Waste
Water system
 Quantity of sewage at the end of a design period
= Per capita production of sewage x Forecasted
population at the end of the design period
 The quantity of wastewater generated per capita is
estimated to be 80% of the water consumption per
capita.
 The water consumption per occupant per day, for
different institutions, can be obtained from the table
…Population Forecasting in the Design of
Waste Water system
 Conclusion
 In the light of the above, we can see that the Geometric
Increase Method is a simple realistic population model
based on past information. This method tends to give a
higher estimate than normal since it behaves
exponentially. It more accurately describes the
continuous and cumulative nature of population growth.
In normal practice, an average of the arithmetic method
and geometric method is performed to get a more
accurate estimate.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION