Assessing Water Scarcity Business Risks

Dr Richard Harpin
Global Business Leader
Water Scarcity/Security
Halcrow Group Ltd

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Our Earth ……so much water

• Total global water availability =

1,386,000,000 km3

• But 97.5% seawater

• Rivers convey only 43,000 km3

per year

• But it isn’t uniformly distributed

in space and time…..
and only 12,500 km3 can be
accessed

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Global water security:
The water, energy and food nexus

The UK Government’s Water

chief scientist has
described the impending

IW P ter

Ag ficie d w
2030

IW ultu y
Em
HE wa
issues of energy, water

Ef dde
ric nc ate
RM ral
be
ng
and food insecurity as a Finance

PP
oli
8.5 billion people

Co
‘perfect storm’………... Food needs up 45%
Sustainability

r
Water demand up 40%
..……predicting global
Energy demand up 50%
instability if the Climate change
problems in the global
water-food-energy nexus Energy Food
Urbanisation
are not addressed Lifestyle
Diet

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The global challenge

“Getting to grips with

the threats to water
security is not
straightforward and
requires innovative and
dedicated approaches”
Professor Peter Guthrie OBE FICE FREng
Chair, Steering Group on Global Water Security
introducing:

Global Water Security – an

engineering perspective
Royal Academy of Engineering, April 2010

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Halcrow water security strategy

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Creating a water secure world
• Halcrow has a longstanding
and unambiguous statement
of purpose:

“to sustain and improve

the quality of people’s
lives”

• This vision permeates

everything we do….

…..and is the reason why

helping to create a water-
secure world is an
important part of our
business.

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Halcrow water security strategy
• A water scarcity/security
business that serves government,
NGOs, agri-business and industry
by resolving the supply demand
imbalance through advice and
design

• operated by key specialists on

behalf of Halcrow

• in order to sustain and improve

the quality of people’s lives

• within a rapidly changing and

uncertain global, political and
environmental climate

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Halcrow water risk tool-box
A set of tools and skills that help
organisations to identify, evaluate and
mitigate water related risks to their
business

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Exposure to water risks

Water stress arising from

• Water shortage
• Inadequate water quality
• Changing water systems Water
Availability
Regulatory risks
• Weak regulatory framework
• Changing abstraction limits
• Changing water prices

Threats to reputation
• Potential contribution to water stress Regulation Reputation
• Environmental damage
• High levels of embedded or virtual
water

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A systems approach
to water risks … a water risk
management framework

Assess spectrum Analyse key

of water risks water risks

Monitor Evaluate risk

outcomes management actions

Integrate within
business planning

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 Our water risk management tool-box

• The Halcrow water risk tool-box helps organisations to identify,

quantify, evaluate and manage water security risks

• A broad initial assessment is important - no two organisations are the

same, each facing a range of water related risks in different aspects
and areas of operation

• The tool-box delivers an appropriate depth of analysis - moving from an

overview analysis to drilling deeper, depending on the context and the
significance of key risks identified

• The tool-box enables:

• a broad assessment of an organisation’s water security risks
• analysis of priority risks at particular locations
• selection and evaluation of risk management responses
• development of evidence-based businesses cases for managing key risks

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 Structure of the risk management tool-box

Tier 1 Water risk management

• Questionnaire + multi-criteria ‘traffic-light’ strategy
risk assessment -> risk register
• Water foot-printing; WBCSD global water
assessments; GEMI water tools Tier 1: identification of risk
spectrum and initial risk
Tier 2 assessment
• Data analysis, quantitative risk assessment
• Water supply-demand-use analysis Tier 2: quantitative analysis
• Business case development of risks and evaluation of
Tier 3 responses
• Process simulation modelling
• Implications of uncertainty
Tier 3: process modelling and
Tier 4 assessment of uncertainty
• Time-series analysis, scenario analysis

Tier 4: scenario analysis and

simulation over longer
planning horizons

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 ‘Traffic-light’ water risk assessment tool

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Industrial operations … affected by water
stress

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 Context
• Halcrow is carrying out a study of water needs and abstraction
limits for an international industrial organisation
• The organisation abstracts water essential for key production processes
• Interruptions to supply impose significant costs to the business
• Competition for water, especially during low river flows, between:
• other organisations licensed to abstract water
• local navigation needs
• environmental needs
• Regulatory change

• A ‘traffic light’ risk assessment has

indicated potential risks arising from
water availability and regulatory
change affecting operations
• Tier 1 and 2 methods being applied

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 Key risks assessed
Water stress

River
• Data analysis and simulation to assess
security of water availability, given:
• operational needs
• the needs of others and the environment
• Modelling design improvements to the
water delivery system
• Analysis of measures to improve water
efficiency and re-use wastewater
Regulatory change
• What are sustainable abstraction limits
under:
• different planning scenarios?
• changes in flow regimes?

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 Benefits gained
• Clearer insight into water security risks, and the likelihood of
reductions in water availability:
• during summer months when river flows are low
• growing awareness of environmental flow requirements
• Assessment of cost implications of such interruptions to supply
• Better water delivery system management
• Evaluating ideas for:
• improving water use efficiency
• re-using wastewater
• Insight into sustainable abstraction limits, under different future
scenarios:
• enabling regulatory compliance
• contributing to good public relations

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Mining and water in Chile
• Chile is the biggest source of copper in the world

• Mining accounts for 20% of Chile’s GDP

• The mining industry is focused in the arid north

• The Atacama desert is one of the driest places on Earth

• Adequate and reliable water supplies are essential to mining operations

• Mining consumed 1.03 million m3/day of water in 2008

• Projected consumption in 2020 is 1.47 million m3/day, excluding additional

water use efficiency savings of 0.28 million m3/day

• Currently planned water augmentation, mainly from desalination, is

0.59million m3/day

• Meeting the needs of the mining industry whilst protecting local

communities and ecosystems is an enormous challenge

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 Safe discharge
Water risks and mitigation in mining into the
environment

Tiers 2, 3 and 4
risk analyses applicable
Tier 2: quantitative analysis
of risks and evaluation of
responses

Augmentation of Tier 3: process modelling and

water supplies assessment of uncertainty

Tier 4: scenario analysis and

Optimisation simulation over longer
of water planning horizons
supplies

Efficiency
improvements -
recycling/re-use of
After Veolia water

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Some relevant Halcrow projects

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Disi-Mudawarra to Amman Water
Conveyance Project, Jordan
• Jordan is considered one of the ten most water-scarce
countries in the world

• City residents are subject to severe water restrictions.

• High population growth and depletion of groundwater

reserves are threatening to aggravate this situation in
the future

• Project involves construction of a 325km pipeline that

will drive water from the Disi-Mudawarra aquifer on
the Jordan-Saudi Arabia border to Amman,

• Project includes
• 55 production wells,
• 120km of collection piping,
• 325km of conveyance piping,
• 2 pumping stations,
• four tanks
• one reservoir

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Tigre Water Supply, Buenos Aires
• Water Intake for 1,500,000m3/day

• 14km of raw water tunnel (3.6m

diameter)

• Treatment plant for 900,000m3/da

• Two Pumping Stations

• 48km of aqueducts for delivery into North

Buenos Aires

• 3million potential beneficiaries

• US$ 700million construction cost

• 36months construction period

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Great man-made river, Libya
• Conceptual and Preliminary
Design for two schemes – capital
value $4 billion
• In association with Nippon Koei
• Responsible for 50% of design
inputs
• Design management
• Wells & hydrogeology
• Materials technology & corrosion
control
• Structures - pumping stations and
reservoirs
• Mechanical & electrical
installations
• Control & communications
systems
• Power supply & distribution
• Operations maintenance &
support facilities

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 UAE: Sharjah Phase 8 Sewage Treatment Works
• 250Ml/d expansion to existing treatment
works

• One of the largest Membrane BioReactor

(MBR) treatment works designs in world

• High quality effluent allows re-use for

unrestricted municipal irrigation

• Allows 1,000,000 residents to be

connected to sewage system

• Reduced traffic congestion and urban

pollution from tankering

• Full process and engineering detailed

design of USD 250 million works

• Re-use of abandoned 7ha composting

plant adjacent to existing works

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 Some of Halcrow’s latest projects
El Morro Desalination Plant, Chile
Detailed design of sea intake and outfall

Ministro Hales Mine Drainage, Chile

Detailed design of mine drainage

Cartegena de Indias Sea Outfall, Colombia

Construction supervision of sea outfall

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Our planet ……so much
little water

Helping to create a water secure world

Thank you!

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