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Chapter 4 Slide 2
Probability Distributions
4-1 Overview
4-2 Random Variables
4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions
4-4 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for the
Binomial Distribution
4-5 The Poisson Distribution
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Slide 3
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Overview Slide 4
probability distributions
by combining the methods of descriptive statistics
presented in Chapter 2 and those of probability
presented in Chapter 3.
Probability Distributions will describe what will
probably happen instead of what actually did
happen.
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Combining Descriptive Methods
Slide 5
and Probabilities
In this chapter we will construct probability distributions
by presenting possible outcomes along with the relative
frequencies we expect.
Figure 4-1
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Definitions Slide 6
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Figure 4-3
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Requirements for Slide 9
Probability Distribution
P (x ) = 1
where x assumes all possible values
0 P(x) 1
for every individual value of x
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Mean, Variance and Slide 10
Standard Deviation of a
Probability Distribution
µ = [x • P(x)] Mean
µ, and
2
decimal place.
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Identifying Unusual Results Slide 12
Range Rule of Thumb
According to the range rule of thumb, most
values should lie within 2 standard deviations
of the mean.
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Identifying Unusual Results Slide 13
Probabilities
Rare Event Rule
If, under a given assumption (such as the
assumption that boys and girls are equally likely),
the probability of a particular observed event (such
as 13 girls in 14 births) is extremely small, we
conclude that the assumption is probably not
correct.
Unusually high: x successes among n trials is an
unusually high number of successes if P(x or
more) is very small (such as 0.05 or less).
Unusually low: x successes among n trials is an
unusually low number of successes if P(x or
Copyright
fewer) is very © 2004as 0.05 or less).
small (such
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Definition Slide 14
E = [x • P(x)]
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Recap Slide 15
Section 4-3
Binomial Probability
Distributions
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia
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Definitions Slide 17
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Notation for Binomial Slide 18
Probability Distributions
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Notation (cont) Slide 19
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Methods for Finding Slide 21
Probabilities
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Method 1: Using the Slide 22
Binomial
Probability Formula
P(x) = n! • px • qn-x
(n – x )!x!
for x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., n
where
n = number of trials
x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q = 1 – p)
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Method 2: Using Slide 23
Table A-1 in Appendix A
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Method 3: Slide 24
Using Technology
STATDISK, Minitab, Excel and the TI-83 Plus calculator
can all be used to find binomial probabilities.
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Strategy Slide 25
n!
P(x) = (n – x )!x!• px • qn-x
Number of
outcomes with
exactly x
successes
among n trials
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Binomial Probability Slide 27
Formula
n!
P(x) = (n – x )!x!• px • qn-x
Number of Probability of x
outcomes with successes
exactly x among n trials
successes for any one
among n trials particular order
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Recap Slide 28
Notation.
Important hints.
Section 4-4
Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation for the Binomial
Distribution
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia
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Any Discrete Probability
Slide 30
Distribution: Formulas
Mean µ = [x • P(x)]
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Binomial Distribution: Slide 31
Formulas
Mean µ =n•p
Variance = n • p • q
2
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Example (cont) Slide 33
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Interpretation of Results Slide 34
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Example Slide 35
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Slide 37
Section 4-5
The Poisson Distribution
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Definition Slide 38
Formula
µ x • e -µ
P(x) = x!
where e 2.71828
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Poisson Distribution Slide 39
Requirements
The random variable x is the number of occurrences of
an event over some interval.
The occurrences must be random.
The occurrences must be independent of each other.
The occurrences must be uniformly distributed over the
interval being used.
Parameters
The mean is µ.
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Example Slide 42
number of regions
=
535
576
= 0.929
x
ge 0.9292 g2.71828 0.929 0.863g0.395
P(x ) = = = = 0.170
x! 2! 2
Rule of Thumb
n 100
np 10
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Poisson as Approximation Slide 44
to Binomial - μ
n 100
np 10
Value for μ
= n • p
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Recap Slide 45
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