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Team 5
Kim Dae Yon: The Analysis of Case 4.4
Shin Doo Sung: The Analysis of Case A13.3
Kwon Soon Ook:
Ook: Analysis Verification, Summary and Reporting
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Quebec Referendum Vote Introduction
ÿ On October 30, 1995, a referendum was held on in which the people of Quebec voted whether to
separate from Canada and form an independent nation.
ÿ The non-Francophone (Non-french speaking) people of Quebec
- About 20% of the population and very much want to remain Canadians A large number of
e nof votes
ÿ The Francophone people of Quebec
- Remaining 80% of the population a majority of e yesf votes
ÿ The Result of referendum Ę Reference: Quebec independence referendum, 1995 in Wikipedia
Total votes % of votes Remarks
Valid ballots 4,671,008 98.18% No: 2,362,648 (50.58%), Yes: 2,308,360 (49.42%)
Rejected ballots 86,501 1.82% e nof side won by only 54,288 votes
Participation rate 4,757,509 93.52%
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Quebec Referendum Vote Preliminary Summary
First the statistics of each column of the data were summarized in the below
table
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Quebec Referendum Vote Correlation (1)
Scatter diagram
14
12
10
8
ï
Pct Reject
6
4 Linear (Pct Reject)
2
0 Linear (Pct Reject)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Correlation
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Quebec Referendum Vote Correlation (2)
Scatter diagram
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15
10
ï Pct Reject
5
Linear (Pct Reject)
0 Linear (Pct Reject)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
!"
Correlation
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Quebec Referendum Vote Correlation (3)
Scatter diagram
!"
15
10
y = 0.006x + 1.742 Pct Reject
5
Linear (Pct Reject)
0 Linear (Pct Reject)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
!"
Correlation
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Quebec Separation? Introduction
a. If the referendum were held on the day of the survey, would Quebec vote to
remain in Canada?
b. Estimate with 95% confidence the difference between French and English-
speaking Quebecers in their support for separation?
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Quebec Separation? Hypothesis Test
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Secondly, we looked for the evidence for supporting the alternative hypothesis.
We counted number of code 1 in the total 641 responses and calculated the
Sample proportion ( as below
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Quebec Separation? Hypothesis Test
Since we assume the null hypothesis is true, we can calculate the test statistic
z as shown in the below equations
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(2.65%)
Thus, we can conclude that if the referendum were held on the day of the
survey, Quebec would vote to remain in Canada.
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Quebec Separation? Hypothesis Test
If we make the z-test by using the Excel program, the same results could
be obtained as represented in the below table.
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Quebec Separation? Estimation
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Quebec Separation? Estimation
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