The Asian-Australian Monsoon

System: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Prediction

Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
June 27, 2016

For more information, visit:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

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 Outline
• Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions
• Monsoon Prediction
• Summary
• Climatology

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 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing deficits to various extents over large parts of
central, northern and western India, and large deficits over southeast Asian countries such as
Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, and the Philippines. However, northeastern India,
Burma, coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received near normal to above
normal rainfall.

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 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days

For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient across central India, Thailand, Laos,
Cambodia, the Philippines islands, parts of New Guinea and sporadically across central and
southeastern China. Elsewhere, rainfall was at near normal or above normal levels.

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Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days

In this past week, monsoon rainfall is generally deficient across

India except along the coastal western Ghats and over much
deficient over entire southeastern China. According to the India
Met. Dept. (IMD), for the first twenty two days of June, the
monsoon rainfall has been deficient by 18 % across the country.
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 Atmospheric Circulation

Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to
technical issues, these maps are further behind.
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 Rainfall Time Series
over 5x5 lat-lon boxes

The time series of precipitation over the various

regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial
maps shown earlier.

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 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts
Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2

Week-1

Week-2

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 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts
Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2

Week-1

Week-2

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 Summary
For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing deficits to various extents over large parts of
central, northern and western India, and large deficits over southeast Asian countries such as
Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, and the Philippines. However, northeastern India,
Burma, coastal southeastern China and many parts of Indonesia received near normal to
above normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient across central
India, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, the Philippines islands, parts of New Guinea and sporadically
across central and southeastern China. Elsewhere, rainfall was at near normal or above
normal levels.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall is generally deficient across India except along the coastal
western Ghats and over much deficient over entire southeastern China. According to the India
Met. Dept. (IMD), for the first twenty two days of June, the monsoon rainfall has been deficient
by 18 % across the country. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting
above normal rainfall across parts of central and northern India and northern sections of
southeastern China, but below normal rainfall to the south of this region.

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Demise of the Asian Monsoon

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Onset of the Australian Monsoon

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Climatology

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