Cha-05 Adjustment Computation 01of01!15!05-2018

BAB V.
MODEL FUNGSIONAL SELISIH

Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.pusriskel.litbang.kkp.go.id
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia
KUADRAT TERKECIL & TEKNIK HITUNG

PENJALARAN KESALAHAN
Agency for Research & Human Resources Development
(MK. Hitung Perataan/ HD- 1315 / 3 SKS)

Disampaikan pada Selasa 15 Mei 2018
Dr.-Ing. Widodo S. Pranowo
Marine Research Center
Dosen:
Research Associate
Widodo Setiyo Pranowo

NIP. 19750905 200212 1 003
Semester III – 2018 – S1 Angkatan XXXVIII
Jurusan Teknik Hidrograf
Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut
Nama Widodo Setiyo Pranowo
Jabatan
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia Peneliti Madya IVb Bid. Oseanograf
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Research & Development Center for Marine & Coastal Resources
Satker Pusat Riset Kelautan, Badan Riset & SDM KKP

Pendidikan Dr.-Ing (Tekno-Matematika, Univ. Bremen, Jerman)
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Development
M.Si (Geofsika & Meteorologi, Inst. Teknologi Bandung)

ST (Ilmu Kelautan Univ. Diponegoro, Semarang)
Pengalaman - Institut Teknologi Bandung

Mengajar - Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Angkatan Laut
(2003- - Sekolah Staf & Komando (SESKO) TNI
sekarang) - Universitas Padjajaran
- Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofsika
Organisasi - anggota American Geophysical Union (AGU) sejak 2008

Research Scientist
Profesional - anggota (pasif) European Geoscience Union (EGU) sejak 2010

- anggota Ikatan Sarjanan Oseanograf Indonesia (ISOI) 2011
- anggota Himpunan Peneliti Indonesia (HIMPENINDO) 2013
Kontak 082 111 637 144

widodo.pranowo[at]kkp.go.id, widodo.pranowo[at]gmail.com
Ph.D Thesis Adaptive Mesh Refnement Applied to Tsunami Modeling: TsunaFLASH
Research Associate
yang bersifat rutin

II. PENJALARAN KESALAHAN
parameter dalam berbagai macam model

fungsional terutama berkaitan dengan hal-hal
Menghitung besarnya kesalahan atau ketelitian
Tujuan Instruksional
V. TEKNIK-TEKNIK HITUNG PERATAAN

KUADRAT TERKECIL
1) Menghitung menggunakan teknik-teknik

hitung perataan kuadrat terkecil
2) Memilih teknik-teknik hitung perataan

Research Associate
kuadrat terkecil dalam penggunaannya

untuk memecahkan suatu masalah
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STANDAR
komponen
pengamatan
standar dan menggambarkannya
3) Elips standar dengan kualitas data

1) Menghitung komponen-komponen elips
VI. ELIPS STANDAR DAN LENGKUNGAN
2) Menghubungkan hasil hitungan komponen-

Sebuah Model Fungsional Terdiri dari
Operasi Perhitungan Matematis:
a) Penambahan & Pengurangan

b) Perkalian & Pembagian
c) Perkalian Pangkat
d) Gabungan dari Perkalian, Pembagian, Penambahan,
Pengurangan, & Perkalian Pangkat

e) Fungsi lain: Fungsi Sinus

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f) Fungsi lain:
Penurunan persamaan menggunakan Turunan Parsial
Pada Proses Operasi perhitungannya dengan melibatkan

berbagai macam data input, akan menghasilkan
penjalaran kesalahan (error propagation)
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Monte Carlo, Monaco

Monte Carlo
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Proble-ma(tema)tika
dengan cara melakukan Simulasi

di Kehidupan Nyata yang dicari solusinya
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–
–
–
–
reserved.
Faster
Copyright 2008 Health

Administration Press. All rights
being studied
More practical
More cost efective
Less dangerous environment
• Simulation versus the “real world”
• Process of modeling reality to gain a better
understanding of the phenomena or system
Simulation
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Proof
reserved.
Training

Discovery
Education
Prediction
Performance
Entertainment
10-11
Types of Simulation
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reserved.
– Collect data
• Model validation
• Model development
– Build computer model
• Simulate and analyze output

– Develop the conceptual model
– Defne the problem or question
Simulation Process
Simulation Process
Model Development Model Validation Simulation and

• Problem/ question Analyses

defnition • Quantitative
• Develop conceptual comparison • Replication
model • Expert opinion • Data collection,
• Collect data storage, and
• Build computer organization
model • Analysis
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reserved.
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Model the output of a

system by using input

variables that could not be
known exactly
• Random variables (those that are uncertain
and have a range of possible values)

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characterized by a probability distribution

• Solution is a distribution of possible outcomes
that can be characterized statistically

reserved.
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reserved.
Simple Monte Carlo Example
Distribution of Charges
Simple Monte Carlo Example
• Fifty percent of the

clinic’s patients do not

pay for their services,
and it is equally likely
that they will pay or not
pay.
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• The payment per patient is modeled by:

Probability of payment × Charges/patient = Payment/patient
• A deterministic solution to this problem would be:

0.5 × $70/patient = $35 per patient

reserved.
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per-Komputasi-an
Monte Carlo di Kehidupan
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S=
much fewer numbers.

“Monte Carlo” solution:
i =1
10000000
… And we may need to sum

�a
i
i=
And have nothing but a pen and paper.
Suppose we are given the problem of calculating
Monte Carlo Solution
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uj,k-1
uj,k
uj-1,k
Uj+1,k
Uj,k+1
u j ,k = 14 [u j 1,k  u j 1,k  u j ,k 1  u j ,k 1 ]
• For the 2D problem via centered diference:
j = spatial
k = temporal
Finite Diference Approx.
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Problem: calculate
s 1s k
ij
=
1
Hˆ {s 1 ,..., s N } =  J �s is j
2D lattice with 10x10 sites:

Z s1 ...s L
Number of terms = 2100=1030

�
Example: Classical Ising model
On a supercomputer that does 1015

summations/sec, this takes 107 years…
s 1s k e  b Hˆ {s 1 ...s L }
Statistical mechanics
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di Kehidupan
Proble-ma(tema)tika
per-Survei-an/Pengukuran
What is Monte Carlo Methods?
• Monte Carlo methods are a branch of mathematics that

involves the stochastic solution of problems. Monte
Carlo is another name for statistical sampling methods of

great importance to physics and computer science.
• Experimental approach to solving a problem. (“Method
of Statistical Trials”)
• When the analyst is trying to use a Monte Carlo
approach to estimate a physically measurable variable,

the approach breaks itself down into two steps:
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1. Devise a numerical experiment whose expected value

would correspond to the desired measurable value x .
2. Run the problem to determine an estimate to this variable.
We call the estimate x̂ .
• Many (probably most) Monte Carlo problems are of the
“Hit or Miss” category, which fnds the probability of
some event occurring. (e.g., hitting a straight flush,
neutron escaping through a surface, etc.) 23
• Applications of Monte Carlo Method:

– Evaluating integrals of arbitrary functions of 6+

dimensions
– Predicting future values of stocks
– Solving partial diferential equations
– Sharpening satellite images

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– Modeling cell populations

– Finding approximate solutions to NP-hard
problems
• The frst step can either be very simple or very

complicated, based on the particulars features of

the problem.
• If the problem is itself stochastic, the
experimental design step is very simple: Let the
mathematical simulation simulate the problem.
This is an analog simulation, since the calculation

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is a perfect analog to the problem.

• Lucky for us, the transport of neutral particles is a
stochastic situation. All we HAVE to do to get a
guess at a measurable efect from a transport
situation is to simulate the stochastic "decisions"
that nature makes.
25
• For processes that are NOT inherently stochastic, the

experimental design is more complex and generally

requires that the analyst:
1. Derive an equation (e.g., heat transfer equation,
Boltzmann transport equation) from whose solution
an estimate of the efect of interest can be inferred.
2. Develop a Monte Carlo method to solve the equation.

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26
History of Monte Carlo Method
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia • In 1738, Swiss physicist and mathematician Daniel Bernoulli
published Hydrodynamica which laid the basis for the

kinetic theory of gases: great numbers of molecules moving in all
directions, that their impact on a surface causes the gas pressure

that we feel, and that what we experience as heat is simply the
kinetic energy of their motion.
• In 1859, Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell formulated the

distribution of molecular velocities, which gave the proportion of
molecules having a certain velocity in a specifc range. This was the

frst-ever statistical law in physics. Maxwell used a simple thought
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experiment: particles must move independent of any chosen

coordinates, hence the only possible distribution of velocities must
be normal in each coordinate.
• In 1864, Ludwig Boltzmann, a young student in Vienna, came

across Maxwell’s paper and was so inspired by it that he spent much
of his long, distinguished, and tortured life developing the subject
further.
History of Monte Carlo Method
• Credit for inventing the Monte Carlo method is shared by

Stanislaw Ulam, John von Neuman and Nicholas Metropolis.
• Ulam, a Polish born mathematician, worked for John von

Neumann on the Manhattan Project. Ulam is known for designing
the hydrogen bomb with Edward Teller in 1951. In a thought
experiment he conceived of the MC method in 1946 while
pondering the probabilities of winning a card game of solitaire.
• Ulam, von Neuman, and Metropolis developed algorithms for
computer implementations, as well as exploring means of
transforming non-random problems into random forms that

would facilitate their solution via statistical sampling. This work
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transformed statistical sampling from a mathematical curiosity to

a formal methodology applicable to a wide variety of problems. It
was Metropolis who named the new methodology after the
casinos of Monte Carlo. Ulam and Metropolis published a paper
called “The Monte Carlo Method” in Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 44 (247), 335-341, in 1949.
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• How to evaluate integral of f(x)?

Solving Integration Problems via Statistical Sampling:
Monte Carlo Approximation
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• Can approximate using another function g(x)

Integration Approximation
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expected value
• Can approximate by taking the average or
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• Estimate the average by taking N samples

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•
•
•
and b
N = number of samples
Im = Monte Carlo estimate
x1, x2, …, xN are uniformly distributed random numbers between a

Monte Carlo Integration
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

estimate it.
the integral is also approximated by the sum.

• We have the defnition of expected value and how to
To simplify the integral, we can substitute g(x) = f(x)p(x).

Since the expected value can be expressed as an integral,
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
from each other.
Variance proportional to 1/N

• The variance describes how much the sampled values vary
Variance
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• Need 4X samples to halve the error

• Standard Deviation proportional to 1 / sqrt(N)
• Standard Deviation is just the square root of the variance
Variance
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noise
• Problem:
– Variance (noise) decreases slowly
– Using more samples only removes a small amount of
Variance
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variance
– Stratifed Sampling
– Importance Sampling
– Quasi-random Sampling
– Metropolis Random Mutations
• There are several ways to reduce the
Variance Reduction
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

function
Idea: use more samples in important regions of the
If function is high in small areas, use more samples there

Importance Sampling
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• Want g/p to have low variance

• Choose a good function p similar to g:
Importance Sampling
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•
•
•
•
practice
Partition S into smaller domains Si
Example: jittering for pixel sampling

Evaluate integral as sum of integrals over Si
Often works much better than importance sampling in

Stratifed Sampling
(f) Fungsi:
Mendapatkan persamaan menggunkan Turunan Parsial
• Metode umum untuk mendapatkan persamaan yang

mengandung penjalaran kesalahan adalah melibatkan total
dari perbedaan dari suatu fungsi (the total diferential of a

function).
• misal z = f(w, x, y, ...) dimana variabel w, x, y, .... Harus
berupa variabel bebas !
• Maka persamaan total perbedaanya (total diferential) :

 f   f   f 
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dz =  dw   dx   dy  ...

 w   x   y 
• Perlakukan dw = w sebagai nilai kesalahan dari w, demikian
juga dengan fungsi diferensial yang lain dz, dx, dy, ....
• Nilai numerik dari turunan parsial adalah dievaluasi
menggunakan nilai rerata dari w, x, y, ....
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2
z =
f
w
 w 
 f 
2
w 
2
f
x
 x 
 f 
x 
2
f
y
2
Menggunakan simpangan baku:

• Hasilnya secara umum kemudian menjadi:
y  ...
 y 

 f 
2
Menggunakan pererataan nilai kesalahan:
2
z =   w    x    y  ...
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lebih banyak lagi tentang

penjalaran kesalahan untuk
 “Turunan Parsial” (Partial Derivatives)
Mari Kita belajar lebih lanjut atau
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x
konstanta.
=
dx 
F ( x, y, z ,...) dF ( x, y, z...) 
Turunan Parsial.
Penjalaran Kesalahan.
• Turunan parsial terhadap variabel
 y , z...const
yang terkait dengan variabel, dimana
variabel lainnya diperlakukan sebagai
tertentu adalah turunan biasa dari fungsi
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x
F
= 2xyz 3
y
F
2
F ( x, y, z ) = x yz
=x z
2 3
3
z
F 2
dari Turunan Parsial
= x y3z 2
Contoh Penjalaran Kesalahan
Formula Penjalaran Kesalahan
dari Turunan Parsial
• Mempertimbangkan ada suatu fungsi F, mempunyai

sebuah parameter f = F(x, y, z, …) yang tergantung dari
parameter pengukuran lainnya x, y, z, ….
• Kesalahan dari perhitungan f, diberi notasi s f, akan

tergantung dari fungsi F, parameter terukur x, y, z, …, dan

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kesalahan setiap parameternya s x, s y, s z, …, sehingga

dapat dituliskan dalam bentuk formula:
2 2 2
 F  2  F  2  F  2
sf =   s x    s y    s z  ...
 x   y   z 
Contoh formula & perhitungan penjalaran
kesalahan turunan parsial
Seorang “pitcher” melempar bola “baseball” dengan

jarak 30 ± 0.5 m dan kecepatan 40 ± 3 m/s (~ 90 mph).
Kemudian, hitung waktu yang ditempuh oleh bola yang
melayang tersebut !!!
2 2
d  1 2  d  2
t= st =   sd    2  sv =
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v  v  v 
F 1 2
 0.5   30  2
2
= =    2  3 = 0.058 
d v 
 40   40 
F d
= 2
v v t = 0.75  0.058s
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v = at
, dapatkah 1 titik data tersebut

Apabila kita hanya punya 1 titik data
memberikan estimasi terbaik untuk “a” ?

determinasikan “a” berikut nilai kesalahannya.
Contoh lain dari penjalaran kesalahan
• Maka untuk tiap titik data 2

1   v 
2
data dapat kita determinasi sa =  sv    2 st  =

t  t 
“a (= v/t)” dengan
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kesalahannya: 2
v  sv   st 
2
=    
t  v   t 
Kita lihat kesalahan dari “a” adalah berbeda-beda untuk
masing-masing titik. Pererataan sederhana tidak akan cukup
bagus untuk mendeterminasikan “a” dan menghitung nilai
kesalahannya.
Pembobotan nilai rerata
(The weighted mean).
• Ketika data kita mempunyai perbedaan nilai kesalahan, kita perlu

melakukan pembobotan nilai rerata (weighted mean) untuk

mengestimasi nilai rerata sebenarnya/ yang mewakili/ yang
signifkan.
• Prosedur pembobotan tersebut mengharuskan kita melakukan
pembobotan terhadap setiap
1 titik data yang ada:
wi =
s i2
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• Catatan: Apabila kesalahan meningkat maka bobot pun meningkat.

• Pebobotan Nnilai rerata dan nilai kesalahan didefnisikan:
 wi yi 1
y= Ni=1
sy = N
w i w i
i=1 i=1
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dalam proses analisis Data

Beberapa Kasus Penjalaran Kesalahan
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id Kasus Paling Sederhana
Consider some measurement of a parameter, x, that

leads to the computation of a result, z : z = f (x)
A measured value, say xo, leads to the calculation of
zo.
The measured value has a range of error of xo ± δx

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and this means there is also a corresponding range in

the computed value, zo ± δz.
The value of δz is what must be determined. This
means a relation between δx and δz must be found.
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Contoh Sederhana
Consider a simple parabolic relation: z = x2

The ranges of error can be introduced directly:
zo ± δz = (xo ± δx)2
And expanding gives: zo ± δz = xo2 ± 2xoδx + (δx)2

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where the last term usually can be neglected since it

should be small compared to xo. Since zo = xo2, then
δz = 2xoδx.
The relative uncertainty then is:

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So:
Thus:
the derivative:
δz = f '(x) δx
dz/dx
dz/dx = f '(x)
Pendekatan Umum
the elementary fnite diference approach

produces a great deal of algebraic complexity.
This is more useful and simplifes cases where
The fnite diferences are simply expressions of
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error:
relation:
Consider the
With relative
dx
=

z =
2
zo
z
 x 1
2
=
1  x2
1  x 
2 2
dz x 2  1  x 2 x
=
x
z= 2

x
2
x 1
Contoh
x 1
1  x2
1  x 2 xo

1  x2  x
2
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Thus,
This gives:
z
x
=y
With relative uncertainty:

z
=
z
y
z = y x  x y
x
=x

y
z x y
Examine if the method can be extended: z = xy
Dianalisis menjadi 2 Variabel
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Or
Consider
z
dz
=a
x
Giving relative uncertainty:

dx
Diferentiating implicity gives:
z
z = xayb
b
z
y
dy
ln z = a ln x + b ln y
=a
x
x
This can be generalized to show the method:
b
y
y
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 x 
 z 
Now, the standard deviation is:

 z =  x  
z = f (x,y)
 y 
z 
sz =
y
which leads to the general expresssion:

 z 
n 1
2
Simpangan Baku untuk Nilai Terhitung
Examine a computed value that is a function of two variables:

2
1  z   z  
Substituting appropriately: s =   x   y 
2
z
n  x   y  
So then the variance is
1  z 
2
 z 
2
 z  z  
s z =     x      y   2   xy 
2 2 2
n  x   y   x  y  

And using the general defnition of the standard deviation

and the fact that the cross term of the diferentials (last
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term) is negligible gives:
2 2
 z  2  z  2
s z =   s x    s y
 x   y 
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expressed as:
Or for the variance:
z
2
Sz =
S =
s
sz
z
N
N
2
For a small data set, say N < 10, the standard error is better
Multi-variabel dari Penjalaran Kesalahan
Thus, in general, a calculated value that depends on

many diferent variables with form: z = f (x1, x2 … xn)

will have a standard deviation of:
2 2
  f ( x1 , x2 ... )  2   f ( x1 , x2 ... )  2
s = 
2
z
 s x1    s x 2  ...
 x1   x2 
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Or more simply:
s = K s  K s  ...
2
z
2
1 x1
2
2 x2
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a capillary
the same capillary.

inh
c  to 
= ln 
1 t 
Where c is the per cent concentration

Contoh
The inherent viscosity, ηinh, is defned as:
to:the time of flow of that same volume of solvent through

t: the time of flow of a specifed volume of solution through
Applying the general expression for the computation of the
variance of the computed quantity gives:
1 1 2 1 2
s2
 inh = 2  2 st 2  2 st 2 
c  t0 o t 
Because it can be measured to much higher accuracy

and precision than the times, the concentration is
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assumed to be error-free ( not usually a justifable

assumption) and is treated as a constant. Were this not
the case, then the numerator of the concentration term
would be the variance of the concentration.
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c
5
4
3
2
1
s2
St2
Run
Average
0.5%
t(sec)
0.548
256.8
256.2
256.0
255.2
255.0
0.1096
255.84
177.0
176.9
176.8
176.6
176.3
to(sec)
176.72
0.0155
0.0775
Inherent Viscosity Data
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id The values determined from the data are used in the
expression derived by the propagation of error analysis:

2
1 1 2 1 2 1  t  2
S 2
 inh = 2  2 st 2  2 st 2   2 ln  sc
c  t0 o t  c  to 
The variance of the concentration is negligible compared to

the error in the time measurements, so sc2 ~ 0.
Research Scientist
1  1 1 
S 2
=   0 .0155    0 .1096   = 9. 872 10 6
 inh
 0.5  176.72
2 2
 255.84 2

Thus Sinh = 3.14 x 10-3

Teknik Perhitungan Penjalaran Kesalahan
Pada Operasi Matematis:
Agency for Marine & Fisheries Research & Human Resources
a) Penambahan & Pengurangan

b) Perkalian & Pembagian
c) Perkalian Pangkat
d) Gabungan dari Perkalian, Pembagian,
Penambahan, Pengurangan, & Perkalian Pangkat

Research Scientist
e) Fungsi lain: Fungsi Sinus

f) Fungsi lain:
Penurunan persamaan menggunakan Turunan
Parsial sederhana
(a) Penambahan & Pengurangan
z = x + y or z = x - y
• Turunan: Diasumsikan bahwa ketidakpastian diatur sedemikian

rupa sehingga z dimungkinkan jauh dari nilai sebenanarnya.
• Simpangan rerata z = |x| + |y| digunakan untuk kedua
kasus operasi perhitungan.
• Dengan lebih dari 2 angka ditambahkan atau dikurangkan maka
kita juga harus menambahkan nilai ketidakpastiannya. Contoh:
1. Menggunakan pererataan kesalahan paling sederhana:

Research Scientist
z = x  y  .....
2. Menggunakan simpangan baku:
z = (x)  (y )  ....

2 2
Contoh
w =(4.52 ± 0.02)cm, x = ( 2.0 ± 0.2)cm,

y = (3.0 ± 0.6)cm.
Hitung z = x + y - w dan nilai ketidakpastiannya.
(1) z = x + y - w = 2.0 + 3.0 - 4.5 = 0.5 cm
(2) z = x + y + w = 0.2 + 0.6 + 0.02 = 0.82  0.8 cm
maka z = (0.5 ± 0.8) cm adalah kesalahan rerata

Research Scientist
(3) Solusi dengan simpangan baku, z = 0.633 cm,

maka z = (0.5 ± 0.6) cm
• Catatan: ketika kita melakukan pembulatan
dibelakang koma, harus dilakukan dengan hati-hati
dan benar.
Untuk perkalian dengan sebuah angka eksak
Ministry of Marine Afairs & Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia -- Kalikan nilai ketidakpastian dengan angka eksak yang sama
• Contoh:
radius sebuah lingkaran x = (3.0 ± 0.2) cm.

Hitung keliling lingkaran & nilai ketidakpastian.
C = 2x = 18.850 cm
C = 2x = 1.257 cm
Research Scientist
--nilai faktor 2 &  adalah eksak.

C = (18.9 ± 1.3) cm
Pembulatan nilai ketidakpastian dilakukan dari
tiga nilai dibelakang koma menjadi 1 nilai
dibelakang koma dapat dilakukan.
Contoh
x = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 ± 0.6) cm.
Hitung z = x - 2y & nilai ketidakpastiannya.

(1) z = x - 2y = 2.0 - 2(3.0) = -4.0 cm
(2) z = x + 2 y = 0.2 + 1.2 = 1.4 cm
maka z = (-4.0 ± 1.4) cm (kesalahan rerata).
z = (-4.0 ± 0.9) cm (simpangan baku)

Research Scientist
The 0 after the decimal point in 4.0 is signifcant

and must be written in the answer.
The uncertainty in this case starts with a 1 and is
kept to two signifcant fgures.
(b) Perkalian & Pembagian:
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id z = x y or z = x/y
• Derivation: derive the relation for multiplication
easily. Take the largest values for x and y, that is

z + z = (x + x)(y + y) = xy + x y + y x + x y
• Usually x << x and y << y  x y << 0
so that the last term x y is much smaller than
the other terms and can be neglected.

Research Scientist
 z = xy, z = y x + x y
• which we write more compactly by forming the
relative error, that is the ratio of z/z, namely
z x y
=   ....
z x y
untuk perkalian, pembagian, atau
kobinasinya
Konsepnya sama, yakni “tambahkan semua

kesalahan relatif untuk mendapatkan nilai kesalahan
relatif total pada hasil akhir”
z x y
=   ....
z x y Pererataan nilai kesalahan sederhana

Research Scientist
2 2
z  x   y 
=       ....
z  x   y 
Simpangan baku
Contoh:
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id w = (4.52 ± 0.02) cm, x = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm.
hitung z = wx & nilai ketidakpastiannya
(1) z = wx = (4.52) (2.0) = 9.04 cm2

(2) Rerata kesalahan:

Research Scientist
 z = 0.1044 (9.04 cm2) = 0.944  dibulatkan 0.9 cm2,

 z = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2.
(3) Simpangan baku: z = 0.905 cm2
 z = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2
The uncertainty is rounded to one signifcant fgure and the <z> is
rounded to match. To write 9.0 cm2 rather than 9 cm2 since the 0 is
signifcant.
Contoh
x = ( 2.0 ± 0.2) cm, y = (3.0 ± 0.6) detik.

Hitung z = x/y dengan unit dimensi kecepatan.

(1) z = 2.0/3.0 = 0.6667 cm/detik.
(2) Rerata kesalahan:
z = 0.3 (0.6667 cm/detik) = 0.2 cm/detik

Research Scientist
Maka: z = (0.7 ± 0.2) cm/detik

(3) Simpangan baku: z = (0.67 ± 0.15) cm/detik
• Note that in this case we round of our answer to
have no more decimal places than our
uncertainty.
Research Scientist
z =xmyn

Menggunakan Pereratan kesalahan sederhana:
(c) Perkalian (Produk) Pangkat:
Contoh
w = (4.52 ± 0.02) cm, A = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm2, y = (3.0 ± 0.6) cm.,
wy 2
hitung z = wy2.A-0.5 & Δz . z=
A
wy 2 4.52 cm  (3.0 cm) 2

z= = = 28.638 cm 2
A 2.0 cm 2
z 0.02 cm 0.6 cm 0.2 cm 2
=  2  0.5  = 0.454
2 2
28.638 cm 4.5 cm 3.0 cm 2.0 cm
Research Scientist
 Kesalahan relatif tingkat 2, (y/y), adalah x 2 sebab y2.

 Kesalahan relatif tingkat 3, (A/A), adalah x 0.5 dimana xA0.5.
 z = 0.454 (28.638 cm2) = 13.001652 cm2  dibulatkan jadi 13 cm2

 z = (29 ± 13) cm2 (untuk AE) atau z = (29 ± 12) cm2 (tuk SD)
Because the uncertainty begins with a 1, we keep two
signifcant fgures and round the answer to match.
(d) Gabungan: Perkalian, Pembagian, Penambahan,
Pengurangan, & Pangkat
-- paling mudah dijelaskan dengan contoh sbb:

Soal: w=(4.52 ± 0.02)cm, x=(2.0 ± 0.2) cm, y=(3.0 ± 0.6)cm

hitung z = w x +y2, z = wx +y2 = 18.0 cm2
Solusi:
(1) Hitung v = wx didapatkan v = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2.
(2) hitung y 2 2y 2(0.6 cm)
= = = 0.40
2
y y 3.0 cm
Research Scientist
y 2 = 0.40  9.00 cm 2 = 3.6 cm 2

(3) hitung Δz = Δv + Δ(y2) = 0.9 + 3.6 = 4.5 cm2  4 cm2
 z = (18 ± 4) cm2 sebagai rerata kesalahan.
• Simpangan bakunya, v = wx = (9.0 ± 0.9) cm2.
cara perhitungan untuk y2 adalah sama dengan cara diatas.
 untuk z = 3.7 cm2, maka z = (18 ± 4) cm2.
(e) Fungsi: Sinus
z = sin x
Pendekatan sederhana:
• Estimasi nilai kesalahan pada z = sin(x)
adalah “selisih antara nilai maksimum dan
nilai rerata”.
• Teknik yang sama tersebut dapat digunakan

Research Scientist
untuk fungsi dibawah ini:

1  z = (sin x) = sin(x + x) - sin(x)
2  z = (cos x) = cos(x - x) - cos(x)
Contoh
S = wcos() for w = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm, =53 ± 2°.
Hitung S & nilai ketidakpastiannya.

Solusi:
(1) S = (2.0 cm)cos 53° = 1.204 cm
(2) Untuk mendapatkan nilai terbesar dari S:
 buat w bernilai lebih besar, (w + w) = 2.2 cm,
  bernilai lebih kecil, ( - ) = 51°.

Research Scientist
 Nilai terbesar S, menjadi (S + S), maka

(S + S) = (2.2 cm) cos 51° = 1.385 cm.
(3) Selisih nilai angka-angka diatas adalah
S = 1.385 - 1.204 = 0.181 cm
 dibulatkan 0.18 cm.
Hasil akhir: S = (1.20 ± 0.18) cm
(f) Fungsi:
Mendapatkan persamaan menggunkan Turunan Parsial
• Metode umum untuk mendapatkan persamaan yang
mengandung penjalaran kesalahan adalah melibatkan total

dari perbedaan dari suatu fungsi (the total diferential of a
function).
• misal z = f(w, x, y, ...) dimana variabel w, x, y, .... Harus
berupa variabel bebas !
• Maka persamaan total perbedaanya (total diferential) :

 f   f   f 
Research Scientist
dz =  dw   dx   dy  ...

 w   x   y 
• Perlakukan dw = w sebagai nilai kesalahan dari w, demikian
juga dengan fungsi diferensial yang lain dz, dx, dy, ....
• Nilai numerik dari turunan parsial adalah dievaluasi
menggunakan nilai rerata dari w, x, y, ....
Research Scientist
2
z =
f
w
 w 
 f 
2
w 
2
f
x
 x 
 f 
x 
2
f
y
2

• Hasilnya secara umum kemudian menjadi:
y  ...
 y 

 f 
2
Menggunakan pererataan nilai kesalahan:
2
z =   w    x    y  ...
Contoh
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id, www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id Soal: S = xcos () for x = (2.0 ± 0.2) cm,
 = (53 ± 2)°= (0.9250 ± 0.0035) rad.
 hitung S & nilai ketidakpastiannya.

 catatan: nilai ketidakpastian dalam satuan (°) radian!
Solusi: (1) S = (2.0 cm)(cos 53°) = 1.204 cm
(2)
S = (1.20 ± 0.13) cm
(simpangan rerata)
Research Scientist
(3)
S = (1.20 ± 0.12) cm
(simpangan baku)
Marine & Coastal Data Laboratory
Email: widodo.pranowo@kkp.go.id; Website: www.p3sdlp.litbang.kkp.go.id
Xie Xie
Thank you
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BAB V.

MODEL FUNGSIONAL SELISIH

KUADRAT TERKECIL & TEKNIK HITUNG

(MK. Hitung Perataan/ HD- 1315 / 3 SKS)

Marine Research Center

Widodo Setiyo Pranowo

Satker Pusat Riset Kelautan, Badan Riset & SDM KKP

M.Si (Geofsika & Meteorologi, Inst. Teknologi Bandung)

Pengalaman - Institut Teknologi Bandung

- Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofsika

Organisasi - anggota American Geophysical Union (AGU) sejak 2008

Profesional - anggota (pasif) European Geoscience Union (EGU) sejak 2010

Kontak 082 111 637 144

yang bersifat rutin

parameter dalam berbagai macam model

V. TEKNIK-TEKNIK HITUNG PERATAAN

1) Menghitung menggunakan teknik-teknik

2) Memilih teknik-teknik hitung perataan

kuadrat terkecil dalam penggunaannya

3) Elips standar dengan kualitas data

2) Menghubungkan hasil hitungan komponen-

a) Penambahan & Pengurangan

Pengurangan, & Perkalian Pangkat

e) Fungsi lain: Fungsi Sinus

Pada Proses Operasi perhitungannya dengan melibatkan

Monte Carlo, Monaco

dengan cara melakukan Simulasi

Copyright 2008 Health

Copyright 2008 Health

– Build computer model

• Simulate and analyze output

Model Development Model Validation Simulation and

• Problem/ question Analyses

Copyright 2008 Health

• Model the output of a

system by using input

and have a range of possible values)

characterized by a probability distribution

Copyright 2008 Health

• Fifty percent of the

clinic’s patients do not

• The payment per patient is modeled by:

• A deterministic solution to this problem would be:

Copyright 2008 Health

much fewer numbers.

… And we may need to sum

2D lattice with 10x10 sites:

Number of terms = 2100=1030

On a supercomputer that does 1015

• Monte Carlo methods are a branch of mathematics that

Carlo is another name for statistical sampling methods of

approach to estimate a physically measurable variable,

1. Devise a numerical experiment whose expected value

• Applications of Monte Carlo Method:

– Evaluating integrals of arbitrary functions of 6+

– Sharpening satellite images

– Modeling cell populations

• The frst step can either be very simple or very

complicated, based on the particulars features of

This is an analog simulation, since the calculation

is a perfect analog to the problem.

• For processes that are NOT inherently stochastic, the

experimental design is more complex and generally

2. Develop a Monte Carlo method to solve the equation.