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Fakulti Pendidikan ● Faculty Of Education

Distribution of Sample Means


&
Central Limit Theorem
Jamil Ahmad PhD
Fakulti Pendidikan UKM
What is Statistic?
Which Group is Smarter?

Class A: IQs of 13 Class B: IQs of 13


Students Students
102 115 128 109 127 162 131 103
131 89 98 106 96 111 80 109
140 119 93 97 93 87 120 105
109
110

Each individual may be different. If you try to understand a group by remembering the
qualities of each member, you become overwhelmed and fail to understand the group.
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Which group is smarter now?
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Class A: Average IQ Class B: Average IQ

110.54 110.23

They’re roughly the same!

With a summary descriptive statistic, it is much easier to


answer our question. 2-Sep-18
Math Science
ALI 12 96
AHMAD 45 60
RMASAMY 60 80
T.SENG 80 70
5
SALMAH 22 80
SWEELAN 76 54
KUMARY 55 56
AHCHONG 43 64
AHMOI 67 33
JASTINA 62 73
JASTINI 40 59
JASTISHA 35 83
XXX 25 34
XXX 46 76
XXX 23 83
XXX 32 43
XXX 90 65
XXX 45 64
XXX 85 73
XXX 67 85
XXX 45 90
2-Sep-18
Math Science
ALI 12 91 MATH
AHMAD 45 60
RMASAMY 60 74 MIN = 50.75
T.SENG 80 70
6 SALMAH 22 72 SKOR MINIMUM = 12
SWEELAN 76 54
KUMARY 55 56
AHCHONG 43 64 SKOR MAKSIMUM = 90
AHMOI 67 44
JASTINA 62 73 JULAT = 90-12 = 78
JASTINI 40 59
JASTISHA 35 83
XXX 25 42
XXX 46 76 SAINS
XXX 23 83
XXX 32 43 MIN = 71.0
XXX 90 65
XXX 45 64 SKOR MINIMUM = 42
XXX 85 73
XXX 67 85
XXX 45 90
SKOR MAKSIMUM = 91
MIN(PURATA) 50.75 71.0
JULAT = 91-42= 49
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What is Statistic?
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 A statistic is a numerical representation of information.

 Statistics is a mathematical science involving the collection,


interpretation, analysis, and presentation of data.

 Whenever we quantify or apply numbers to data in order to


organize, summarize, or better understand the information, we
are using statistical methods.

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There are two fundamental purposes to analyzing data:
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 The first is to describe a large number of data points in a concise


way by means of one or more summary statistics (Descriptive
statistics).

 The second is to draw inferences about the characteristics of a


population based on the characteristics of a sample (Inferential
statistics)

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Two major branches of statistics
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There are two major branches of statistics, each with


specific goals and specific formulas.

1. Descriptive statistics

2. Inferential Statistics

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Descriptive Statistics
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What is descriptive statistic?

 Describing what is or what the data shows/ describe what's going on in


our data.

 Descriptive Statistics are used to present quantitative descriptions in a


manageable form.

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Descriptive Statistics
Summarizing Data:
 Central Tendency (or Groups’ “Middle Values”)
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 Mean
 Median
 Mode
 Variation (or Summary of Differences Within Groups)
 Range
 Variance
 Standard Deviation
Organize Data
• Tables
• Frequency Distributions
• Relative Frequency Distributions
• Graphs
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• Bar Chart , Histogram, Polygon
INFERENTIAL SATISTICS
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What is Inferential statistics?

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Sample=n=200

min = x
Generalize our findings from
POPULATION=N=1000 the sample to the population
MIN =  ? using
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
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POPULATION AND SAMPLE
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The totality to whom/which you wish to
generalize your study finding

Select sample from Generalized or ‘project


population and conduct back” the findings/results
study with sample subject from your sample subjects
back to the population

SAMPLE
The subjects you actually “use” in your
study 2-Sep-18
What Is Inferential Statistics?
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Inferential statistics is defined as the branch of statistics that is used to make


inferences about the characteristics of a populations based on sample data.

 The goal is to go beyond the data at hand and make inferences about
population parameters.

 Inferential statistics allow one to draw conclusions about the unknown


parameters of a population based on statistics which describe a sample from
that population.

 In order to use inferential statistics, it is assumed that either random selection


or random assignment was carried out (i.e., some form of randomization must
is assumed). 2-Sep-18
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS
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TYPES OF INFERENTIAL STATISTICS


 t-Test
 One-Way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)
 Two-Way ANOVA
 Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)
 ANCOVA
 MANCOVA
 Correlation
 Regression
 Chi-Square Test
 ect.
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Important information about samples

 For qualitative research, we are looking at specific situations. It


may not be important to have a representative sample. We often
use nonprobability sampling with qualitative methods (snowball,
purposive, or convenience samples).

 For most types of quantitative research we do want a sample that


is representative of the population. We will want to generalize our
findings from the sample to the population.
To generalize means that;
we can say that we would expect to have the
same findings if we studied everyone in the
population as we did when we looked at the
sample (within a certain degree of probability)
In studies in which we will generalize from the sample to the population

 We must have a sample that is similar or the same on specific


dimensions as the population.
 We will want to use inferential statistics to analyze our data so that we
can infer that findings from a sample are the same as those we would
get from the population.
 Theoretically, we must have a normal distribution in order to use
inferential statistics.
 We will use sampling methods in which every respondent has a known
probability of selection (probability sampling)
 The best type of sampling method to use with inferential statistics is
that in which each participant has an equal probability of selection
(random sampling).
TYPE OF SAMPLING

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PROBABILITY SAMPLING NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING


Every member of the Not every member of the population
population had a chance of had a chance of “making it” into
“making it” into your sample your sample

Simple Systematic Stratified Cluster Convenience Purposive Judgment Snow-


Random Random Random Sampling Sampling Sampling Sampling balling
Sampling Sampling Sampling Sampling
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Sampling Distributions
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One of the most important concepts in inferential


statistics is that of the sampling distribution. That's
because the use of a sampling distributions is what
allows us to make "probability" statements in
inferential statistics.

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Sampling Distributions
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What is sampling distribution ?

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POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8
SAMPEL

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POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8
SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

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2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
6,2
6,4
6,6
6,8
8,2
8,4
8,6
8,8 2-Sep-18
POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8
SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

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2,2 2
2,4 3
2,6 4
2,8 5
4,2 3
4,4 4
4,6 5
4,8 6
6,2 4
6,4 5
6,6 6
6,8 7
8,2 5
8,4 6
8,6 7
8,8 8 2-Sep-18
POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8
SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

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2,2 2 1/16
2,4 3 1/16
2,6 4 1/16
2,8 5 1/16
4,2 3 1/16
4,4 4 1/16
4,6 5 1/16
4,8 6 1/16
6,2 4 1/16
6,4 5 1/16
6,6 6 1/16
6,8 7 1/16
8,2 5 1/16
8,4 6 1/16
8,6 7 1/16
8,8 8 1/16 2-Sep-18
POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8
SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

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2,2 2 1/16
2,4 3 1/16
2,6 4 1/16 Population Mean = ??
2,8 5 1/16
4,2 3 1/16 Mean of the sampling distribution of the
4,4 4 1/16 mean = ??
4,6 5 1/16
4,8 6 1/16
6,2 4 1/16
6,4 5 1/16
6,6 6 1/16
6,8 7 1/16
8,2 5 1/16
8,4 6 1/16
8,6 7 1/16
8,8 8 1/16 2-Sep-18
POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8
SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

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2,2 2 1/16
2,4 3 1/16
2,6 4 1/16
Population Mean = (2+4+6+8)/4 = 5
2,8 5 1/16
4,2 3 1/16 Mean of the sampling distribution of the mean
4,4 4 1/16 = (2+3+4+5+3+4+5+6+4+5+6+7+5+6+7+8)/16
4,6 5 1/16
= 80/16
4,8 6 1/16
6,2 4 1/16
=5
6,4 5 1/16 Mean of the sampling distribution of the
6,6 6 1/16
mean is equal to the population mean!
6,8 7 1/16
8,2 5 1/16
That tells you that repeated sampling will,
8,4 6 1/16 over the long run, produce the correct
8,6 7 1/16 mean.
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SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY
2,2 2 1/16 Table of Frequency Distribution
2,4 3 1/16
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2,6 4 1/16 MIN FREQ PROBALITY
2,8 5 1/16 2 1 1/16
4,2 3 1/16 3 2 2/16
4,4 4 1/16 4 3 3/16
4,6 5 1/16 5 4 4/16
4,8 6 1/16
6 3 3/16
6,2 4 1/16
7 2 2/16
6,4 5 1/16
6,6 6 1/16 8 1 1/16
6,8 7 1/16
8,2 5 1/16
8,4 6 1/16
8,6 7 1/16
8,8 8 1/16
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Histogram
Table of Frequency Distribution
MIN FREQ PROBALITY
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2 1 1/16
3 2 2/16
4 3 3/16
5 4 4/16
6 3 3/16
7 2 2/16
8 1 1/16

•The sampling distribution of the mean is


normally distributed (as long as your sample
size is about 30 or more for your sampling).
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What is Sampling Distributions?
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 A sampling distribution is defined as "The theoretical probability distribution of


the values of a statistic that results when all possible random samples of a
particular size are drawn from a population.

 A one specific type of sampling distribution is called the sampling distribution


of the mean.

If you wanted to generate this distribution, you would randomly select a sample,
calculate the mean, randomly select another sample, calculate the mean, and
continue this process until you have calculated the means for all possible
samples. This process will give you a lot of means, and you can construct a line
graph to depict your sampling distribution of the mean
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 The sampling distribution of the mean is normally distributed


(as long as your sample size is about 30 or more for your
sampling).

 Also, note that the mean of the sampling distribution of the


mean is equal to the population mean!

 That tells you that repeated sampling will, over the long run,
produce the correct mean. The spread or variance shows you
that sample means will tend to be somewhat different from the
true population mean in most particular samples.
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It is important to understand that researchers do not actually empirically


construct sampling distributions! When conducting research,
researchers typically select only one sample from the population of
interest; they do not collect all possible samples.

 The computer program that a researcher uses (e.g., SPSS and SAS)
uses the appropriate sampling distribution for you.

 The computer program will look at the type of statistical analysis you
select (and also consider certain additional information that you have
provided, such as the sample size in your study), and then the
statistical program selects the appropriate sampling distribution.
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Important concepts about sampling distributions:

 If a sample is representative of the population, the mean (on a variable


of interest) for the sample and the population should be the same.
 However, there will be some variation in the value of sample means due
to random or sampling error. This refers to things you can’t necessarily
control in a study or when you collect a sample.
 The amount of variation that exists among sample means from a
population is called the standard error of the mean.
 Standard error decreases as sample size increases.
STANDARD ERROR
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The standard deviation of a sampling distribution is called


the standard error.

In other words, the standard error is just a special kind of


standard deviation .

•The smaller the standard error, the less the amount of


variability present in a sampling distribution.
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Distribution of Sample Means

1. The mean of a sampling distribution is identical to mean of


raw scores in the population (µ)
2. If the population is Normal, the distribution of sample
means is also Normal
3. If the population is not Normal, the distribution of sample
means approaches Normal distribution as the size of
sample on which it is based gets larger Central
Limit
Theorem
Confidence Level and Significance Level
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 Unlike descriptive statistics, which are used to describe the


characteristics (i.e. distribution, central tendency, and dispersion) of a
single variable, inferential statistics are used to make inferences about
the larger population based on the sample.
 Since a sample is a small subset of the larger population, the inferences
are necessarily error prone.
 That is, we cannot say with 100% confidence that the characteristics of
the sample accurately reflect the characteristics of the larger population.
 Hence, only qualified inferences can be made, within a degree of
certainty, which is often expressed in terms of probability (e.g., 90% or
95% probability that the sample reflects the population).
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Definition of the Standard Normal Distribution
The Standard Normal distribution follows a normal distribution and has mean 0 and standard
deviation 1

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TERIMA KASIH

2-Sep-18