Professional Documents
Culture Documents
I believe the
Reject
population mean
hypothesis!
Population age is 50
Not close.
(hypothesis).
Random
sample
Mean
X = 20
Hypothesis Testing
Sampling Distribution
It is unlikely
that we would ... therefore, we
get a sample reject the
mean of this hypothesis that
value ... = 50.
... if in fact this were
the population mean
20 = 50 Sample Means
H0
Type II Error
• Type II error occurs when, based on the sample
results, the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is
in fact false.
• The probability of type II error is denoted by β.
Type I vs Type II error
Non-rejection region
Represents
H0: μ = 12 a /2 a /2 critical value
H1: μ ≠ 12
Two-tail test 0
H0: μ ≤ 12 a Rejection
H1: μ > 12 region is
Upper-tail test 0 shaded
H0: μ ≥ 12
a
H1: μ < 12
Lower-tail test 0
Test statistics
TEST STATISTIC A value, determined from sample
information, used to determine whether to fail to reject or
reject the null hypothesis.
To test hypotheses about population means we use the z or
t-statistic.
x µ0 x µ0 x
z t
x s n s n
Based on the selected level of significance, the critical value
is the dividing point between the region where the null
hypothesis is rejected and the region where it is not rejected.
If the test statistic (t or z) is greater than or less than the
critical value (in the region of rejection), then reject the null
hypothesis.
Step 3: Formulate a Decision Rule for the Test
H0: μ = 12
H1: μ ≠ 12
Two-tail test 0
H0: μ ≤ 12
H1: μ > 12
Upper-tail test 0
H0: μ ≥ 12
H1: μ < 12
B. P-Value approach to Hypothesis Testing, Cont.
σ known σ Unknown
X μ X μ
Z t n-1
σ S
n n
Steps to Hypothesis Testing
Make
management/business/admi
nistrative decision
Review of Hypo. Testing
What is HT?
Probability of making erroneous conclusions
Type I – only when Null Hypo is true
Type II – only when Null Hypo is false
Two Approaches
The Rejection or Critical Value Approach
The P-value Approach (we calculate the observed level of significance)
Test Statistics
Z- distribution if Population Std. Dev. is Know
t-distribution if the Population Std. Dev. is unknown
Tests About
a
Population Mean
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean
Hypothesis
Test for μ
(z test) (t test)
Known: use σ Unknown: use s
Unknown: use s
Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about µ
H0: µ = µ0
x - µ0 x - µ0
Test Statistic: z= »
sx s n
Alternative
Hypothesis Rejection Region
H a : 0 z z
H a : 0 z z
H a : 0 z z / 2 or z z / 2
Hypothesis
Test for μ
(z test) (t test)
Known: use σ Unknown: use s
Unknown: use s
Small-Sample Test of Hypothesis about µ
H0: µ = µ0
x-m
Test Statistic: t =
s n
Alternative
Hypothesis Rejection Region
H a : 0 t t ,n 1
H a : 0 t t , n 1
H a : 0 t t / 2, n 1 or t t / 2,n 1
where t and t are based on (n – 1) degrees of freedom
OUR PROBLEM
Set α = .05
OUR PROBLEM
Test statistics is
OUR PROBLEM
10-54
One-tail Example
Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the
alternate hypothesis.
H0: ≤ 200
H1: > 200
(Note: The keyword in the problem “an increase.”)
H0: ≤ 200
H1: > 200
Reject H0 if z >z,
where z = 1.55 and z = 2.33.
Hypothesis Test
for p
(z test)
p̂ - p0
z=
p0 q0 / n
Conditions Required for a Valid Large-
Sample Hypothesis Test for p
H0: p = p0
p̂ - p0 where s p̂ = p0 q0 n
Test Statistic: z =
s p̂
q0 = 1 - p0
Alternative
Hypothesis Rejection Region
z z
Ha: p > p0
Ha : p < p 0 z z
Ha: p ≠ p0 z z / 2 or z z / 2
Hypothesis
Test for σ2
Test Statistic:
c 2 = (n -1)s 2 / (s 0 )2
Test of a Hypothesis about 2 (Variance)
Test Statistic: c2 =
( n - 1) s 2
s 02
Alternative
Hypothesis Rejection Region
df = n - 1 = 2
.103
Chi-Square (2) Test Example
H0:2 = 15
Test Statistic:
Ha:2 15
(25 1) 17.7
2
(n 1) s 2
=.05
2
df =25 – 1 = 24
2
0 152
= 33.42
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
/2 = .025 Do not reject at = .05
Conclusion:
There is no evidence
0 12.401 39.364 2 2 is not 15
Calculating Type II Error Probabilities:
More about
Type II Error
EXAMPLE
A manufacturer purchases steel bars to make cotter pins.
Past experience indicates that the mean tensile
strength of all incoming shipments is 10,000 psi and
that the standard deviation, σ, is 400 psi. In order to
make a decision about incoming shipments of steel
bars, the manufacturer set up this rule for the quality-
control inspector to follow: “Take a sample of 100 steel
bars. At the .05 significance level if the sample mean
strength falls between the correct limits, accept the lot.
Otherwise the lot is to be rejected.”
Type II Error
Type II Error
s
x0 0 z x 0 z
n
Steps for Calculating for a Large-Sample
Test about µ
s
Lower-tailed test: x0 0 z x 0 z
n
s
Two-tailed test: x0, L 0 z 2 x 0 z 2
n
s
x0, U 0 z 2 x 0 z 2
n
Steps for Calculating for a Large-Sample
Test about µ
x0 a
z
x
Steps for Calculating for a Large-Sample
Test about µ
Equal to 1 –
Used in determining test adequacy
Affected by
• True value of population parameter
• Significance level
• Standard deviation & sample size n
Two-Tailed z Test Example
Hypothesis: n Reject H0
Do Not
H0: 0 368 15
25 Reject H0
Draw
Ha: 0 < 368 = .05
0 = 368 x
Finding Power
Steps 2 & 3
Hypothesis: n Reject H0
Do Not
H0: 0 368 15
25 Reject H0
Draw
Ha: 0 < 368 = .05
0 = 368 x
‘True’ Situation:
a = 360 (Ha)
Draw
1–
Specify
a = 360 x
Finding Power
Step 4
Hypothesis: n Reject H0
Do Not
H0: 0 368 15
25 Reject H0
Draw
Ha: 0 < 368 = .05
0 = 368 x
15
‘True’ Situation:
a = 360 (Ha)
xL 0 z
n
368 1.64
25
Draw
363.065
1–
Specify
= 360 363.065
a
x
Finding Power
Step 5
Hypothesis: n Reject H0
Do Not
H0: 0 368 15
25 Reject H0
Draw
Ha: 0 < 368 = .05
0 = 368 x
‘True’ Situation:
a = 360 (Ha)
xL 0 z
368 1.64
15
Draw n 25
= .154
363.065
Specify
z Table 1– =.846
= 360
a
363.065
x
Properties of and Power
– Mean, Average
p – Proportion, Fraction, Percentage, Rate,
Probability
2 – Variance, Variability, Spread
Key Ideas
Lower-tailed : Ha : < 50
Upper-tailed : Ha : > 50
Two-tailed : Ha : ≠ 50
Key Ideas