FACTORS

1. Sea surface temperature at least 26.50C with mixing layer

dept at least 50 m  cause overlying atmosphere to be
unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorm.
2. Rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the
heat of condensation  the power of the tropical cyclone.
3. High humidity in the lower-to-mid troposphere  favorable
for disturbance to develop
4. Small/low wind shear  to keep the power in the storm
circulation system.
5. Generally need to form over 50 of latitude or 555 km away
from equator  to get enough coriolis force to creating a
circulation.
6. Pre-existing disturbed weather system  like thunderstorm
 The Origin of
Sea Thunderstorm

ITCZ InterTropical Convergence Zone

Tropical Wave
 Sirkulasi Global dan ITCZ
Untuk Bumi yang tidak
berotasi, konveksi akan
membentuk satu sel
simetris sederhana
disetiap belahan Bumi

ME 2112 -- Zadrach L. Dupe

 The Coriolis Effect

Coriolis effect
direction and
strength. The Coriolis
effect acts to deflect
the paths of winds or
ocean currents to the
8.7% 50N
right in the northern
hemisphere and to
the left in the
southern hemisphere
 = 7.29x10-5 s-1 as viewed from the
Sin 50 = 0.087 starting point.
 Surface Winds on an
Ideal Earth

A parcel of air in motion near the

surface is subjected to three
influences: the pressure gradient that
propels the parcel toward low
pressure; the Coriolis effect that
deflects the parcel, and the frictional
forces of the ground surface that slow
the parcel down.
Surface Winds on an Ideal Earth

Global surface winds on

an ideal Earth. This
schematic diagram of
global surface winds and
pressures shows the
features of an ideal Earth,
without the disrupting
effect of oceans and
continents and the
variation of the seasons.
Surface winds are shown
on the disk of the Earth,
while the cross section at
the right shows winds
aloft.
Diagram tiga dimensi pola sirkulasi
global akan tampak seperti gambar
samping dan foto satelit bawah
menunjukkan kondisi ril pada
tanggal 9 Maret 2014

Polar Cell

Ferrel Cell

• The trade winds blow from the

northeast in the Northern
Hemisphere and from the southeast
in the Southern Hemisphere.
• A region of convergence
(Intertropical Convergence Zone --
ITCZ) creates a band of
thunderstormsME near the
2112 equator.
-- Zadrach L. Dupe
Global atmospheric circulation animation due to the sun movement
Include the ITCZ

ME 2112 -- Zadrach L. Dupe

TROPICAL WAVE:
– A type of atmospheric trough, an elongated area
of relatively low air pressure, oriented north to
south, wich moves from east to west across the
tropics causing areas of cloudiness dan
thunderstorms
 Conditions for Tropical Wave
Development
• The wave must be north or south of the equator.
– Coriolis force is zero at the equator.
• Conditional Instability γd ≥ γ ≥ γs
• Weak vertical shear
• Warm sea-surface temperatures (SST)
– Typically SSTs are greater than 26oC
• Since pressure gradients are small near the equator,
we look at the flow of wind to find trough regions.
• A trough or ripple in the easterly flow is known as a
“tropical wave.”
• Surface convergence occurs on the east side of this
wave and surface divergence occurs on the west
side.
• Thunderstorms tend to form on the east side of the
tropical wave.
Tropical Wave in the Easterlies
 Siklon Tropis

Gangguan Depresi Badai Siklon

Tropis Tropis Tropis Tropis
4 tahap pertumbuhan Siklon Tropis:
1. Gangguan Tropis
2. Depresi Tropis
3. Badai Tropis dan
4. Siklon Tropis atau Taifun atau Hurricane
• Gangguan Tropis
- Kumpulan beberapa sistem hujan badai (thunderstorms) dengan isobar
sedikit melengkung.
- Kecepatan angin kurang dari 20 knot

• Depresi Tropis
- Kumpulan Thunderstorm lebih terorganisir
- Ada satu isobar tertutup
- Kecapatan angin antara 20-34 knot.

• Badai Tropis
- Sistem berotasi berlawanan jarum jam di BBU dan sebaliknya di BBS,
tetapi belum ada “MATA”
- Ada 2 (dua) isobar tertutup
- Kecapatan Angin antara 35-64 knot.
- Pada saat ini badai diberi nama.
• Siklon Tropis atau Hurricane atau Taifun
- Mata siklon sudah terbentuk
- Ada minimal 3 (tiga) isobar tertutup
- Kecepatan angin melebihi 64 knot (> 74 mph atau > 119 kmph)
 Day + Nigh t

Badai Tropis Blanche

(ht t p :/ / www.bom .gov.au)
Key Structural Features of a Mature Tropical Cyclone
A few structural elements are common to all tropical cyclones. The (i) boundary layer
inflow, (ii) eyewall, (iii) cirrus shield, (iv) rainbands, and (v) upper tropospheric outflow
are found in all tropical depressions and tropical storms. As these storms become more
intense, a (vi) clear central eye becomes visible from satellite.

(a) Conceptual model of the main structural elements of tropical cyclones. Notice the (i)
boundary layer inflow, (ii) clear central eye, (iii) eyewall, (iv) cirrus shield, (v) rainbands,
and (vi) upper tropospheric outflow. (b) Close-up view of the boundary layer flow in a
tropical cyclone.
Schematic of the cross-section through a tropical
cyclone showing the vertical airflow and microphysics in
the eyewall and rainbands.
Visible satellite images of a mature tropical cyclone
showing the eye and eyewall. Notice that the eyewall
slopes outward from the surface, creating the "stadium
effect".
 Season lengths and averages
Season Season Tropical
Basin Hurricanes Refs
Start end Storms

North Atlantic 1-Jun 30-Nov 12.1 6.4 [44]

Eastern Pacific 15-May 30-Nov 16.6 8.9 [44]

Western Pacific 1-Jan 31-Dec 26 16.5 [44]

North Indian 1-Jan 31-Dec 4.8 1.5 [44]

South-West [44][45]
1-Jul 30-Jun 9.3 5
Indian

Australian
1-Nov 30-Apr 11 [46]
region
Southern
1-Nov 30-Apr 7 4 [47]
Pacific
Global 1-Jan 31-Dec 86 46.9 [44]
 Characteristics:
TD TS H/Ty

SFC winds <= 34 kt <= 64 kts > 64 kts

Avg. SFC P 1000mb 990mb 960mb

Vis. Features No eye/wall No eye/wall Have eye

Wind shear > 15 kts < 15 kts 0

Vortex Cyclonic Anticyclonic

throughout above 300mb
Active < 1% 1% 4-5%
convection
500mb T Colder than Warmer than
environment environment
North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific: Saffir-
Simpson Scale
The Saffir–Simpson scale was initially intended to provide a link between the observed damage and the
effects of wind, pressure and storm surge that could lead to such damage. In the first table, the hurricane
categories are related to maximum sustained winds (1–minute average and 10 meters above ground) and
minimum central pressure. Maximum wind speed is used to determine the category of a hurricane.

Table 8-2.1. The Saffir-Simpson Scale: Cat 3-5

are referred to as Major Hurricanes.

Saffir-Simpson
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed Expected Level
Hurricane
(VMAX; 1-minute average)b of Damage
Category
m s-1 km h-1 mph
1 33–42 119–153 74–95 Minimal
2 43–49 154–177 96–110 Moderate
3 50–58 178–208 111–129 Extensive
4 59–69 209–251 130–156 Extreme
5 70+ 252+ 157+ Catastrophic
Australian Region: Gust Wind Speed
Ranges for Tropical Cyclones
A tropical cyclone scale linking maximum gust (3–5 second, 10 meter) wind speeds to expected damage
in the maximum wind zone has been instituted in the Australian Region. As with the Saffir–Simpson scale,
the weakest tropical cyclones are designated as Category 1, with the strongest possible tropical cyclones
being assigned Category 5.
Table 8-2.2. Australian region Tropical Cyclone categories based on gust wind speed.
Category 2 or higher are referred to as Severe Tropical Cyclone.

Categorie Range of strongest gusts

Summary Description of Typical Damage Expected
s (km h-1) (m s-1)
Negligible house damage. Damage to some crops, trees and
1 < 125 < 34
caravans.
Minor house damage. Significant damage to trees and caravans.
2 125 – 170 34 – 47
Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure.
Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed.
3 170 – 225 47 – 63
Power failure likely.
Significant roofing loss and structural damage. Many caravans
4 225 – 280 63 – 78 destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris.
Widespread power failure.
5 > 280 > 78 Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.
Western North Pacific and Indian Ocean Tropical
Cyclone Intensity
The tropical cyclone intensity scale in these last three basins is based upon the maximum sustained (10–
minute average) surface (10 meter) wind speeds. While the wind speed ranges in these basins are
consistent, their naming conventions vary.

Table 8-2.3 Western North Pacific and Indian Ocean categories.

Range of 10-min Range of 10-min Categories by Region

mean wind mean wind Western
North South
North
(km h-1) (m s-1) Indian Indian
Pacific
Tropical Tropical Tropical
60 – 119 17 – 33
Storm Storm Storm
Tropical
120 – 227 34 – 63 Typhoon
Severe Cyclone
Cyclonic Severe
Super Storm Tropical
> 227 >63 Typhoon
Cyclone
Conversions for units of wind speed: 1 m s-1 = 3.6
km h-1, 1.94 knots, and 2.237 mph.
 Name List of Nort Atlantic Harricane

Humbert
Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Ingrid Jerry Karen
o
2013
Sebastie
Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Tanya Van Wendy
n

Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle
2014
Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred
Claudett
Ana Bill Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate
e
2015
Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
2016
Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia
2017
Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk
2018
Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sara Tony Valerie William
Sources for tropical cyclone names.[1][2]
 Additional Names From Indonesia
List A Anggrek Bakung Cempaka Dahlia Flamboyan Kenanga Lili Mawar Seroja Teratai
List B Anggur Belimbing Duku Jambu Lengkeng Mangga Nangka Pisang Rambutan Sawo
 CYLONE NAME – AUSTRALIA REGION

Anika Billy Charlotte Dominic Ellie Freddy Gabrielle Herman Ilsa Jasper Kirrily

Lincoln Megan Neville Olga Paul Robyn Sean Tasha Vince Zelia ------

Anthony Bianca Carlos Dianne Errol Fina Grant Heidi Iggy Jasmine Koji

Lua Mitchell Narelle Oswald Peta Rusty Sandra Tim Victoria Zane ------

Alessia Bruce Christine Dylan Edna Fletcher Gillian Hadi Ita Jack Kate

Lam Marcia Nathan Olwyn Quang Raquel Stan Tatjana Uriah Yvette ------

Alfred Blanche Caleb Debbie Ernie Frances Greg Hilda Ira Joyce Kelvin

Linda Marcus Nora Owen Penny Riley Savannah Trevor Veronica Wallace ------

Ann Blake Claudia Damien Esther Ferdinand Gretel Harold Imogen Joshua Kimi

Lucas Marian Noah Odette Paddy Ruby Seth Tiffany Verdun ------ ------
 Additional List From FIJI

Ana Bina Cody Dovi Eva Fili Gina Hagar Irene Judy Kerry Lola Mal
List A
Vaian Xavie
Nat Olof Pita Rae Shelia Tam Urmil Wati Yani Zita
u r

Arthur Becky Chip Denia Elisa Fotu Glen Hettie Innis Joni Ken Lin Mick
List B
Nisha Oli Pat Rene Sarah Tomas Ului Vania Wilma ------ Yasi Zaka

Atu Bune Cyril Daphne Evan Freda Garry Heley Ian June Kofi Lusi Mike
List C
Winsto
Nute Odile Pam Reuben Solo Tuni Ula Victor ------ Yalo Zena
n
Mon
Amos Bart Colin Donna Ella Frank Gita Hali Iris Jo Kala Leo
a
List D
Neil Oma Pami Rita Sarai Tino ------ Vicky Wiki ------ Yolande Zazu
 Hurricane Archive
Damage
Year Storms Hurricanes Deaths (millions USD) Retired Names
2015 12 4 89 >590 2 - Erika, Joaquin
2014 9 6 17 232 0
2013 13 2 47 1,510 1 - Ingrid
2012 19 10 199 75,000+ 1 - Sandy
2011 19 7 100 21,000 1 - Irene
2010 21 12 287 12,356 2 - Igor, Tomas
2009 11 3 6 77 0
2008 16 8 761 24,945 3 - Gustav, Ike, Paloma
2007 15 6 341 50 3 - Dean, Felix, Noel
2006 10 5 5 500 0
5 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan,
2005 28 15 3,483 115,520 Wilma
Foto Satelit menampilkan ke-4 tahapan
pertumbuhan siklon tropis

Daniel
Animasi pergerakkan Siklon Tropis ketika mendekati garis pantai
Storm Surge datang 3-5 jam sebelum pusat badai menerpa pantai

Pantai curam

Pantai Landai

Di BBU Kecepatan Angin Sebelah Kerusakan Lebih besar terjadi di

Kanan ST > dari yang di Kiri dan Pantai yang landai
Sebaliknya di BBS
 Hurricane Hazards
• Strong Winds
– Hurricane sustained wind speeds are in
excess of 74 mph.
– Occasionally can get as high as 155 kts.
– Winds are typically stronger in Pacific
storms -- storms have more time grow in
the larger Pacific ocean.
– Wind damage can be significant especially
to weakly built houses.
– Spin-up vortices can cause very strong and
damaging wind gusts.
Hurricane Winds
 Hurricane Hazards
• Inland Flooding
– Torrential rains can, especially if the
hurricane moves slowly inland, can cause
substantial flooding.
• Camille (1969)
– Inland in Mississippi
– Flooding in Virginia
• Agnes (1972)
– Inland in Florida
– $6.3 Billion in damage along the East Coast
– Flooding in Pennsylvania
• Alberto (1994)
– Never a hurricane! (Tropical Storm)
– Stalled over Georgia -- Americus, GA received 21”
Inland Floofing
 Hurricane Hazards
• Storm Surge
 The abnormal rise in the ocean level associated with the hurricane
landfall.
 As the hurricane approaches the coast, it “pushes” a large mass of water
in front of it.
 When this pile of water reaches the coast, the water levels can rise as
much as 7 meters (~22 feet).
 Usually 80 - 160 km wide.
 Not a “tidal wave” or tsunami.
 The dramatic rise in the sea level can cause catastrophic damage.
 The greatest storm surge is associated with:
– Stronger hurricanes
– High tide
– Shape of the shore
Storm Surge
Severe TC Tracy
Cyclone Tracy 24 Dec 1974
TC Bhola
Hurricane Wind Damage
Flooding in New York
Hurricane Sandy – October 2012
Storm Surge
 Death of a Hurricane
• Moves out of the warm, moist tropical air.
• Moves over land.
– Loss of moisture source
– Increased surface friction
– Temperature of the land is cooler than the
warm ocean
• Moved under unfavorable large scale flow.
– High shear can rip a storm apart
– Large scale subsidence can inhibit
convection
 Hurricane Warnings
• Hurricane warnings are designed to protect
human life and their property.
– Possible Evacuations
• Detection techniques
– Satellites
– Radar
– Aircraft Reconnaissance
– Data Buoys
– Weather Channel Reporters!
 Satellite Detection of Camille

NIMBUS III Satellite -- 21 August 1969

 Radar Detection of Hurricanes

Hurricane Andrew -- August 24, 1992

 Aircraft Detection of Hurricanes

WP-3 Aircraft Dropsondes

 Aircraft Detection of Hurricanes

WP-3 Aircraft Dropsondes

 Tropical Storm Warnings
• Tropical Storm Watch
– Possible tropical storm conditions expected in
the next 36 hours.
– Prepare to take appropriate action.
• Tropical Storm Warning
– Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
next 24 hours.
– Take action!
 Hurricane Warnings
• Hurricane Watch
– Possible hurricane conditions expected in the
next 36 hours.
– Prepare to take appropriate action.
• Hurricane Warning
– Hurricane conditions are expected in the next
24 hours.
– Get out of Dodge!
Hurricane Warning!
 Building for Disaster?
• 45 million people now live along hurricane-
prone regions in the U.S.
• Gulf Coast population:
– 1960 -- 5.2 Million
– 1990 -- 10.1 Million
– Doubled in only 30 years.
• Florida to Virginia
– 1960 -- 4.4 Million
– 1990 -- 9.2 Million
 Can We Evacuate?
• Hurricane evacuation times currently range
from 15 - 30 hours depending on the locale.
• Current warnings are only valid for 24 hours.
• Can the transportation infrastructure handle
such a mass exodus quickly enough?
 Building for Disaster?

• We are constructing more and larger

dwellings along our hurricane-prone
coastlines.
 Building for Disaster?

Miami, FL
 Better Construction
• Improved construction techniques may help alleviate
some storm damage.
– Reinforcing seawalls
– Creating larger sand dunes and beaches
– Building housing on “stilts”
– Better tie-downs between the foundation and the
walls and between the walls and the roof.
• Not much will stop a 7 m storm surge.
Is This Better?
 Prediction Difficulty
1. We still have difficulty predicting the
precise landfall of most hurricanes.
2. Some hurricanes can “loop.”
3. What if we evacuate and the hurricane
goes elsewhere -- the “Cry Wolf” problem.
4. False alarms are still high and many
people become apathetic.
– We see that here with tornado watches and
warnings!
 Prediction Difficulty

Hurricane Elena -- 28 August - 4 September 1985

 Possible Solutions
• Increased Research on Hurricane Prediction
• Evacuation Studies
• Emergency procedures in the event
evacuation is not feasible
• Population growth management
• Hurricane education
• Improved construction building codes
• Wetland management
• Hurricane Modification ????
Apa kaitannya dengan Perubahan
Iklim dan Pemanasan Global
 FACTORS
1. Sea surface temperature at least 26.50C with mixing layer dept
at least 50 m  cause overlying atmosphere to be unstable
enough to sustain convection and thunderstorm.
2. Rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat
of condensation  the power of the tropical cyclone.
3. High humidity in the lower-to-mid troposphere  favorable for
disturbance to develop
4. Small/low wind shear  to keep the power in the storm
circulation system.
5. Generally need to form over 50 of latitude or 555 km away from
equator  to get enough coriolis force to creating a circulation.
6. Pre-existing disturbed weather system  like thunderstorm
Sea Surface Temperature
 Atlantic Records
• Substantial year to year
variability in number of
storms
• No clear trend in the
number of storms

Landsea 1996
North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Atlantic Triple Hurricane
 Atlantic Records

Goldenberg et al. 2001

• Number of intense hurricanes is much more cyclic in

nature
• Above average 1940s-1960s, below average 1970s-
1994
• Abrupt shift in hurricane record in 1995
 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
ACE = 10-4 Σ v2max …...... (104 kn2)

• The sum of the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained

wind speeds for all named systems while they are at least tropical storm
strength
• During the 1995-2004 period the basin averaged 13.4 storms, with 7.8
hurricanes, 3.8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index value of 169% of the
median
• This contrasts sharply with an ACE value of 70% of the median during the
1970-1994 period

Trenberth 2005
El Nino Index
 Atlantic SST changes

Trenberth 2005 Goldenberg et al. 2001

• Nonlinear upward trend in SSTs over the 20th century

• Despite the multidecadal fluctuations that are evident, the
last decade (1995-2004) features the highest decadal average
on record by > 0.1°C
• Positive anomaly in the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode