Spatial statistics

Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA)

SYAHRUL, 10 Oktober 2018

 Silabus kuliah

• Introduction to geostatistics
• Non-spatial statistics
Today’s
• Spatial statistics lecture

• Variogram
• Estimation
• Simulation
 Spatial statistics
CONTENT
• Spatial description
• Spatial continuity model
–from non-spatial to spatial statistics
–Spatial statistics - Univariate
–Spatial statistics - Bivariate
 Spatial description
• Data postings
• Contour maps
• Symbol maps
• Indicator maps
• Moving windows statistics
• Propotional effect
 Spatial description
Data posting Symbol map or post plot

Contour map
 Spatial description
Indicator map
Threshold from 15 to 135 ppm
• Series of indicator
map records the
transition from low to
high values

• Low values tend to

be alligned in a
north-south direction

• High values tend to

be grouped in the
south-east corner
 Spatial description
Moving window statistics

Calculate the average and

standard deviation (SD)
of each moving window
……………..
average MAP RESULTS
• Average value and variability
SD
change locally across the area
• High SD in South-East, reflect
low and high values are being
close
• Low SD in Western area,
reflects the very uniform values
in that region
 Spatial description
Proportional effect in spatial domain

CASE 1 CASE 1
Average and variability are
constant

CASE 2
Data values fluctuate about
the local average, but there
CASE 2 is no obvious change in
variability

For estimation, these two

cases are the most
favorable
++
____ data values  Easy to model
local average
 Spatial description
Proportional effect in spatial domain

CASE 3
CASE 3
Local average constant but
variability changes

CASE 4
Local average and variability
change together
This is the common case for
CASE 4
earth science data

For estimation, case 4 is still

somewhat predictable
(local variability is related
to the local average)
++ data values
____
local average  Can still be modelled
Spatial description
Proportional effect in spatial domain

Local means vs local standard deviation

correlation coefficient = 0.27

No apparent relationship
between mean and SD

correlation coefficient = 0.921

Strong relationship between
mean and SD
 Spatial continuity model

From non-spatial to spatial statistics

 Non-spatial statistics
Univariate vs Bivariate

• Sample variance in one variable statistics:

n
 
2 1
 xi  x 2 Measure of difference between
n  1 i 1 sample value and its mean

• Sample covariance in two variables statistics:

n Two variables
Cov XY 
1
 xi  x   yi  y  x and y
n  1 i 1
Summary of relationship
between two variables
 Non-spatial statistics - Bivariate
• Sample correlation coefficient in two variable
non-spatial statistics: the covariance normalized
by sample standard deviations
n

covariance Covxy  x  x    y
i i  y
   i 1
standard deviations  x   y n n

 x  x   y  y
2 2
i i
i 1 i 1

xi , yi  sample value at particular location Measure of how close the

observed values come to
x , y  sample mean falling on a straight line
Non-spatial statistics - Bivariate
Scatterplot

Regression line

  0. 7

x
 Non-spatial statistics - Bivariate
different values of correlation coefficient

(Picture taken from Dubrule, 2003)

 Non-spatial vs spatial statistics
• Non-spatial statistics: relationship between two
samples of different variable on the same

xi  x  yi  y 
location
Same
location

• Spatial statistics: relationship between two

samples of the same variable, separated by
distance (h)

xi  x xi  h  x 
Different
location
 Spatial statistics - Univariate
• Sample correlation coefficient in one variable
spatial statistics: the covariance normalized by
sample standard deviations Different
location
n

covariance Covxi xih  x  x   x

i ih  x
   i 1
standard deviations  xi   x ih n n

 xi  x   
 ih  
2 2
x x
i 1 i 1

xi  sample value at particular location Measure of the similarity of

observed values with
xi  h  sample value at distance h from xi separation distance (h)
 Spatial statistics - Univariate
h-Scatterplot
h=(0,1)

Sample data pairs

of same
variable
separated by 1
xi  h
m
in north-south N
direction 
  0.742 h(0,1)

xi
 Spatial statistics - Univariate
different separation distance results in different 
h=(0,1) h=(0,2) • If data value at locations
separated by h are very
similar then the pairs will
xi  h xi  h
plot close to the line
xi=xi+h (45-degree line
  0.742   0.590 passing through the
x
origin)
xi i

h=(0,4) • As the data values

h=(0,3)
become less similar or
separation distance
xi  h xi  h
becomes larger the cloud
of points on h-scatterplot
becomes fatter and more
  0.560   0.478
diffuse, drifted away from
xi x i the 45-degree line
 Spatial statistics - Univariate
plots against separation distance (h)
h vs  Various index for spatial continuity

Correlation coefficient
decreases with
increasing distance in
north direction

h vs Cov
Covariance function
Covariance also steadily
decreases in a manner
very similar to the
correlation coefficient
 Spatial statistics - Univariate
plots against separation distance (h)
1 n
 h    xi  xi  h 2
 = gamma
2n i 1
Also known as semivariogram or variogram

h vs  Spatial continuity index

Unlike the other two
indices of previous
spatial continuity, the
semivariogram
increases as the cloud
gets fatter or separation
distance becomes larger
 Semivariogram
• So, semivariogram or gamma gives an index for
spatial continuity
• Semivariogram value increases when separation
distance between samples increases
• Semivariogram value increases if correlation
decreases

h vs 


Lag or Separation Distance

 Key Concepts

• Spatial dependence: the value of a

variable at a point in space is related
to its value at nearby points
• Spatial structure: the nature of the
spatial relation, as depicted in

SEMIVARIOGRAM
 Variogram parameters

Model Form = EXPONENTIAL

Sill


= Data Points
Nugget = variogram model
(may be zero) Range

Lag or Separation Distance

Physical meaning of semivariogram
Sill

Nugget
Range

Lag or Separation Distance

• Sill: maximum semi-variance; represents variability in the

absence of spatial dependence
• Range: separation between point-pairs at which the sill is
reach; distance at which there is no evidence of spatial
dependence
• Nugget: semi-variance as the separation approach zero;
represents variability at point that cannot be explained by
spatial structure
 Types of Variogram
1. Experimental Variogram
Experimental variogram is useful to analyze the structure of excavated
materials and can not be directly used in reserve estimation, therefore
there is a need for a theoretical variogram model to be fitted with in the
experimental variogram.

2. Theoretical Variogram
The theoretical variogram has the shape of the curve closest to the
experimental variogram. Thus, for the purposes of further analysis the
experimental variogram should be replaced by the theoretical variogram.
There are several types of variogram that are often used, namely:

Spherical model
What's the difference?
Exponential Model
Gaussian Model
 Semi-Variogram Calculation

 (h) 
1
(g  g
2
i i h )
2N
Where:
h = distance vector between a pair of samples
gi = grade of first sample (at location i )
gi+h = grade of second sample (at location i+h)
N = number of pairs
 How to calculate semivariogram?
Lag=1
5 6 5 7 8 8 6 9 9

1 5  6  6  5  5  7   7  8 
2 2 2 2

 (h  1)    1 n
2  8  8  82  8  62  6  92  9  92 
 h    `  xi  xih 2

2n i 1

1
1  1  4  1  0  4  9  0  20
16 16
 1.25

Lag=2


1 (5  5)  (5  8)  (8  6)  (6  9) 
2 2 2 2

 (h  1)   
2 * 7  (6  7) 2  (7  8) 2  (8  9) 2 

 0  9  4  4  1  1  1 
1 20
h
14 14
 1.42
etc… etc… etc…
 Variability and Separation Distance
• Classical Statistics ignores spatial location of
data
• GeoStatistics uses spatial location and
variability inherent in dataset (e.g.
mineralisation)
• As the distance between samples increases
the variability between samples increases
 Variability and Separation Distance
• Plot Variability in Sample Values vs
Distance between Samples

. .
. . .
.
variability

. .
0 distance between samples
 Semi-Variogram / Variogram
• Semi-Variogram value for sample pairs at
distance apart is:
– half of the average squared difference between
values at this distance


1
(g  g
2
 (h) )
i i h
2N
• Hence the term semi-variogram
– However terminology is ‘loose’ and this equation
can also be referred to as the ‘variogram’
 Semi-Variogram Calculation
• Semi-Variogram value for sample pairs at
distance apart is
– Variance
• Not just distance but also direction
– vector
• Vector also called Lag
 Example Variogram Calculation
Fe deposit drilled at 100m spacing
NA NA

NA

NA NA

NA NA

NA = Not Available (no data)

 Example Variogram Calculation
Pairs 100m apart in West-East direction
 Example Variogram Calculation
Sum the square of their differences
 Example Variogram Calculation
Plot 1.46 at 100m

20
18
16
Semi-Variogram

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Distance
 Example Variogram Calculation
Pairs 200m apart in West-East direction
 Example Variogram Calculation
Sum the square of their differences
 Example Variogram Calculation
Plot 3.30 at 200m

20
18
16
Semi-Variogram

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Distance
 Example Variogram Calculation
Plot 4.31 at 300m, 6.70 at 400m

20
18
16
Semi-Variogram

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Distance
 Variogram Calculation
• Calculate South-North semi-variogram
value at 100m, 200m and 300m
100m
44 NA 42 39 37 36
40 40 NA

42 NA 43 42 39 39 41 40 38

100m
37 37 37 35 38 37 37 33 34

35 38 NA 35 37 36 36 35 NA

36 35 36 35 34 33 32 29 28

38 37 35 NA 30 NA 29 30 32
 Example Variogram Calculation
Not enough pairs at 400m South-North

Semi-Variogram
Distance East-West North-South
100 1.46 5.35
200 3.3 9.87
300 4.31 18.88
400 6.7
 Example Variogram Calculation
Plot South-North results as well
20
North-South
18
16
14
Semi-Variogram

12
10
East-West
8
6
4
2
0
0 100 200 300 400 500

Distance
 Calculating
Save Variograms
this slide to EMF,
then and
Distance insert and crop
Direction tolerance

• Samples will not be exactly the required

distance/direction apart
– Tolerance on both Direction and Distance
 Calculating Variograms
Lag spacing
• Lag = Distance apart of sample pair
• Lag spacing
– incremental distance for calculation
• At least equal to sample spacing
• Note number of pairs used per lag
• Erratic variograms
– wrong lag?
– sometimes due to erratic sample support
 Variogram Characteristics

.
Sill . .
(levelling off = sill = overall population variance)
.
.
 ( h)

.
. . Samples
Spatially Correlated
Samples not
spatially correlated
Nugget
effect
0 h Range of influence

GEO STATISTICS
 Geometric Anisotropy
Same Sill, Different Range
Variogram in East-West direction (along strike)

. .
variogram . . range of

. . influence
Along Strike
. .
0 25m 50m
distance

Variogram in North-South direction (across strike)

. . . . .
variogram

. . range of

. influence
Across Strike
..
0 25m 50m
distance
 Zonal Anisotropy
Same Range, Different Sill
semi-variogram
N-S
AVERAGE

E-W

distance
• East-West direction has lower variance of
mineralisation
– Impossible?
– E-W really has much longer range?
 Anisotropy
• Geometric anisotropy
– Same sill
– different range
across strike
down dip
along strike

• Zonal anisotropy
– different sill
– same range
along channel
across channel
 Variograms
Models
Sill
. .
 ( h)
.
.
nugget . .
effect
h range

• Variogram shape is a function of

– nugget effect, range and sill
 Variograms
Spherical Model
Sill
. .
 ( h) .
.
nugget . .
effect
h range

3
g (h) = Nugget + (Sill-Nugget) x 1.5
( h
Range (
0.5
h
Range))
g (h) = Sill (if h >= Range)
 Variograms
Model Fitting
• Model fitting is subjective
– No accepted “goodness of fit” parameter
• Other variogram models exist
– Exponential, Gaussian, Linear
– Rarely used in practice
– Can use nested spherical instead
• Model choice depends on the geological
phenomena  accepted or generally used
model in that area of study
 Variograms
Nested Models
• Nested Spherical Model
– Nested Variogram =
Nugget Effect + Short Range Spherical Model
+ Long Range Spherical Model

– Rarely more than 2 nested models

 Variograms
Nested Models

+ =

+
 Modelling Variograms
Nugget effect
• Incorporates
– inherent variability
– human error
– short scale variability
• Calculate from closest spaced data
– usually downhole variogram
• Duplicate data analysis
– inherent nugget effect
 Calculating Variograms
Lag spacing

Lag spacing - Same data longer Lag -

too short more appropriate
 Calculating Variograms
Number of lags
• Rule of thumb
– half the diagonal of areal extents
– subject to shape of domain
• long narrow orebody
• more lags along strike length

maximum lag distance

 Variogram Cloud
•  (gi gih )
1
Semi-variogram is 2
– ½ Average of squared 2N
difference at specific lag
+/- distance and
direction tolerances
– Can plot all data points:
• Each squared difference
vs its distance
• Called a variogram cloud
 Variogram Contours
Contoured variogram values showing a north-
east strike
NORTH
WEST

EAST
SOUTH
 3D Variography
• Contours of horizontal variograms to
interpret strike of mineralisation
West
North

STRIKE

South
East
 3D Variography
Direction 2 (intermediate direction)
Up Minimum continuity on dip plane
Direction 3 (minor direction)
Minimum continuity
perpendicular to dip
plane

South
East

Direction 1 (major direction)

Maximum continuity on dip
plane
 Other Variograms
• Log Variogram
– calculate using Log of grades
• Pairwise Relative Variogram
– each pair in each lag is divided by squared
average of the pair values
• Indicator Variogram
– Use 0 or 1 (depending on whether below/above
indicator value).
 Variograms
What do they give us?
• Range of Influence of values
– Used to select search volume

• Anisotropy
– Understand directions of values
(of mineralisation or deposition)