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PROBLEM 1:

Activity Predecess Optimistic Normal Pessimistic


or (O) (m) (P)

A --- 5 6 7
B --- 1 3 5
C --- 1 4 7
D A 1 2 3
E B 1 2 9
F C 1 5 9
G C 2 2 8
H E,F 4 4 10
I D 2 5 8
f
J H,G 2 2 8
PROBLEM 1 : FIND A,B & C

A. Construct the project network

B. Find the expected time and


variance of each activity

C. Find the critical path and


expected project completion time
Solution ‘A’ : Project Network Diagram
THREE TIME ESTIMATES

1 MOST LIKELY TIME (tm)


most frequently occur if the activity were
repeated many times

2 OPTIMISTIC TIME (to)


the shortest possible time to complete the
activity if everything went right

3 PESSIMISTIC TIME (tp)


the longest possible time to complete the
activity if everything went wrong
FORMULA
MEAN AND VARIANCE

to + 4tm + tp
mean (expected time) te 6

2
tp - t o
variance σ 2
6

MOST LIKELY TIME (tm)

OPTIMISTIC TIME (to)

PESSIMISTIC TIME (tp)


Solution ‘B’ : Expected time and Variance
Activity Predecess Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Te VARIANCE
or (O) (m) (P) (to+4tm+
tP)/6

A --- 5 6 7 6 0.11
B --- 1 3 5 3 0.44
C --- 1 4 7 4 1.00
D A 1 2 3 2 0.11
E B 1 2 9 3 1.78
F C 1 5 9 5 1.78
G C 2 2 8 3 1.00
H E,F 4 4 10 5 1.00
I D 2 5 8 5 1.00
f
J H,G 2 2 8 3 1.00
•ES - Earliest Starting time - forward pass

•LF - Latest Finishing time – backward pass


• Solution ‘C’ :
Critical path and
Expected project completion time

• Critical Path = 1-4-6-7-8

• Expected project duration time


= c(4)+f(5)+h(5)+j(3)
= 4+5+5+3 = 17 Weeks