Dams and Levees as Climate

Change Maladaptation
Patrick McCully
“Rivers for Life 3”
Temacapaulín, Jalisco, Mexico
October 2010
 Key Messages

• Rapid rise in flood disasters

• “Hard path” flood control often counterproductive under existing

climate, will become more dangerous under rapidly changing
climate
• Adapting to flood impacts of climate change requires “soft path”
flood risk management
 Rapid Increase in Flood Disasters

Floods are most destructive, most frequent, most costly natural

disasters on earth
• Frequency and severity increasing, will continue doing so

• Number of people living in path of potentially damaging flood

by 2050 = 2 billion
(1bn in 2007)
 In 2007 . . .

• Africa’s biggest floods in 30 years (23 countries)

• South Asia: 41m people affected
• “Hundreds of thousands” of
families displaced in China
• Homes of nearly 1m people damaged in Tabasco
• $9bn damages in England
 Why the Rise in Flood Disasters?

• More people, infrastructure in harm’s way

• Watersheds, rivers, floodplains degraded, mismanaged

• Intense rain events more frequent, severe

• Flood control approaches counter-productive, especially in

rapidly changing social and climatic contexts
 “Controlling” Floods,
Worsening Floods

• Dams and levees have prevented countless potential floods (at

great ecological cost)
• Dams and levees have created countless floods and magnified
the severity of floods
• Dams and levees have disadvantage of discontinuity: time
from “safe” to “failure” very short so little time for warning and
evacuation
• Dams fail, are poorly operated, and have permanently flooded
an area the size of California
 “Flood Control” is Not Working

• Switzerland: flood losses x4 since 1970 despite major increase

in flood control investments
• India: 17,000 km levees since 1954. At best no decrease in
area affected; increases in deaths and people affected.
• Bihar: levee length x22,
flood-prone area tripled
 “Flood Control” is Not Working

• Switzerland: flood losses x4 since 1970 despite major increase

in flood control investments
• India: 17,000 km levees since 1954. At best no decrease in
area affected; increases in deaths and people affected.
• Bihar: levee length x22,
flood-prone area tripled
 Multipurpose Dams:
A Deadly Conflict of Interest

Pakistan 1992: 500 killed below Mangla Dam

Nigeria 1999: 1,000 killed, 300,000 harmed by releases from Kainji, Jebba and
Shiroro dams
Nigeria 2001: 200 killed, 82,000 harmed by releases from Tiga and Challawa
dams
India 2005: 62 killed by releases from Indira Sagar Dam
India 2006: 39 killed by releases from Manikheda Dam;
120 killed, $49bn losses by releases from Ukai Dam
 Climate Change and Dam Safety
• Dams (and levees) designed for a static climate
• Poor maintenance of aging dams a growing problem. Global under-
investment in dam safety: $300bn?
• None of world’s 54,000 large dams built to withstand changing
hydrology
• Dam lifespan reduced by increased sedimentation

"Dams are loaded

weapons aimed down
rivers.” - Jacques Leslie,
author of Deep Water
 We Must Adapt

• Climate change is happening

• We need to adapt (and MITIGATE)
• Poor, already most vulnerable, also most vulnerable to
greenhouse-world disasters
• Oxfam: developing countries will require $50bn/yr + emergency
relief funds (humanitarian funding 2005 $8.4bn)
 We Must Adapt

• Climate change is happening

• We need to adapt (and MITIGATE)
• Poor, already most vulnerable, also most vulnerable to
greenhouse-world disasters
• Oxfam: developing countries will require $50bn/yr + emergency
relief funds (humanitarian funding 2005 $8.4bn)
 Flood Risk Management
= Climate Adaptation
• Move from static flood control to flexible, adaptive flood risk
management
• FRM means cost-effective, no regrets measures
• FRM assumes floods will happen, aims to reduce damage
• FRM understands floods are ecologically essential
 “Soft Path” Flood Risk Management

• Improve disaster-preparedness, flood warning systems, flood

recovery planning
• Remove/move back levees; remove ineffective and dangerous
dams
• Where possible, move development out of floodplain
• Only build levees where essential, spend more on levee
maintenance
• Improve dam management, force compliance with strict
operating rules
• Dam safety evaluations and investments
• Flood-proof buildings
• De-pave cities, capture rainwater
 FRM is Ecological Adaptation

• Restoring wetlands & rivers will help slow floods, absorb water
• Removing structures that fragment, dewater, simplify river
ecosystems will improve their resilience to a changing climate
 Climate Change Adaptation =
Design for Graceful Failures

Need “to plan how to respond before, during and after all floods
rather than simply construct an engineering solution that protects
up to some design standard flood . . . We should seek forgiving
systems those that fail gracefully.”
Colin Green, Flood Hazard Research Center, University of
Middlesex
 FRM: Examples

• Community-based flood forecasting: 1,000 people in Ganga-

Brahmaputra-Meghna basin form early warning network using
phones and email.
• Loire Grandeur Nature Plan: Government dropped planned flood
control dam and adopted community designed FRM approach.
Flood strategy now part of basin-wide govt., landowner, NGO
ecological restoration and management plan.
• Giving more room to the Rhine: 20-Year Action Plan on Flood
Defense adopted by 5 countries. Includes levee removal, river
restoration, improved flood warning and evacuation.
• Yangtze wetlands restoration: WWF-Beijing and local govts. plan
to restore 20,000 km2 wetlands along middle Yangtze.
Thank You!