Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Research Symposium
Tuesday
July 27, 2010
12:30-2:00 p.m.
ISR Building,
Room 6050
2
Acknowledgements
Sponsors:
Health and Retirement Study (3)
Life Course Development Program
Survey Methodology Program
Quantitative Methodology Program
Social Environment and Health Program
Partners:
Senior Staff Advisory Committee
SRC Administrators
Summer Institute & Program in Survey Methodology
Survey Research Operations
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research
ISR and SRC Human Resources
SRC Computing
SRC Director’s Office
3
Work Ability Among
Older Adults
in the U.S.
Melissa Worst
The University of Detroit Mercy
4
Overview
Work Ability
Promotion of Work Ability
Work Ability Index
Finnish
Adapted version in the HRS
Preliminary Results
Conclusions
Future Research
5
Work Ability
Definition: a discrepancy between
expected and actual behavior; a
discrepancy between the worker’s abilities
and job demands.
Finnish researchers - 1981
Work ability – the need to determine how
to keep ageing workers in the workforce.
6
Tuomi, Ilmarinen, Martikainen, Aalto, and Klockars (1997)
Why We Care
The proportion of older workers in the
workforce is growing.
By 2030 - 65+ will increase by 50%.
Number of workers aged 25 to 54 will
increase by only 12%. (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004)
7
Work Ability Cont.
Researchers have differentiated:
Worker’s ability – individual physical, mental, and
social capacities.
Work Ability – the worker’s qualification to manage
occupational demands.
If the demands are different from the worker’s
qualifications, then strain occurs.
Strain – Physiological, psychological, and
behavioral changes.
Ilmarinen, Tuomi, Eskelinen, Nygard, Huuhtanen, and Klockars (1991)
8
Promotion of Work Ability
Activities which encourage higher levels of
work ability.
Should focus on altering:
Work tasks
Work demands and the environment
Professional competencies
Tuomi, Huuhtanen, Nykyri, and Ilmarinen (2001)
9
Work Ability Index
Finnish developed a measure for work ability.
Seven items - assess work related capacities
Predicts early departure from the workforce
Index scores = the sum of the scores from seven
items:
Poor work ability = 7 - 27
Moderate work ability = 28 - 36
Good work ability = 37 - 43
Excellent work ability = 44 - 49
Ilmarinen, Tuomi, and Klockars (1997)
10
Work Ability Index
1) Subjective estimation of current work ability
compared with lifetime best.
0= Very poor 10= Very good
2) Subjective work ability in relation to both
physical and mental demands of the work.
2= Very poor 10= Very good
3) Number of current diseases diagnosed by a
physician.
1=5 or more, 2= 4, 3= 3, 4= 2, 5= 1, 7= No disease
Four Items
Aligns with Finnish Work Ability Index
14
A.
B.
C.
D.
15
Preliminary Analysis Results
Characteristics of Respondents from the 2008 Health
and Retirement Study who are Age Eligible and
Working
N 1837
Age M=63.2 years (SD=6.0)
White 89.0%
Female 54.2%
Number of Years in School M=13.9 years (SD=2.6)
Hours worked per week M=36.2 (SD=14.1)
Overall work ability score (0-10) M=8.61 (SD=1.5)
Work ability sum score (0-40) M=34.9 (SD=5.2)
16
Preliminary Analysis Results
Table 3: Results of Hierarchical Multiple Regression Analysis - Work
Ability (Q47a)
Variables Entered Std. Est. t Sig
Step 1 Age -.140 -5.95 .000
Gender .048 2.03 .043
Race -.020 -0.83 .405
Step 1 Model: R2 = .024, p < .0001
Step 2 General Health .278 11.83 .000
Step 2 Model: R2 = .100, p < .0001
17
Conclusions
Previously, no study has used a work ability
index with a nationally representative American
sample.
Respondent’s health is significantly related to
their work ability.
Not difficult to see why work ability in individuals
is important.
Could help determine how to support worker’s health
in the US so they are better able to work longer.
18
Future Research
Replicating the results of other populations.
Examining the causal relationship between
antecedents and work ability - how to improve
the working and personal lives of Americans.
US - how work ability breaks down by
demographic characteristics and occupational
sectors.
Master’s thesis research question: What
relationship does subjective age have with
measures of work ability?
19
Questions
Acknowledgements:
Gwen Fisher
SRC Interns
20
Virtual Humans as
Survey Interviewers
Roxanne Shooshani
Survey Methodology Program
Sponsor: Dr. Fred Conrad
21
Background
Virtual Humans: Embodied Conversational
Agents, Animated Agents, here: Virtual
Interviewers.
Graphical interface objects that interact
with a user on a computer; sometimes
have voice and gestures, often appearing
as humans.
Used on website like Ikea’s and PayPal’s
for help.
Not Avatars – there is no one operating
them “behind the scenes”.
22
Ikea’s Virtual Human, Anna
23
Human Interviewer
Characteristics
Race of human interviewer known to affect answers
to race-relevant questions (e.g., Davis et al., 2009).
Both White and Black Rs report more “pro-civil
rights,” fewer racially conservative.
opinions/behaviors to Black than White interviewer.
Gender of human interviewers known to affect
answers to gender -relevant questions (e.g., Kane &
Macauley, 1993).
Both male and female Rs report more “pro-feminist”
answers to female than male interviewer.
Characteristics of automated interviewing systems
are under researchers’ control.
Do VIs produce similar effects? Is social desirability
as strong in a virtual setting vs. a real life one?
24
25
Contributions
Code respondents’ reasons for picking a
particular interviewing agent into logical,
organized categories for further data analysis.
Read the 1,735 open responses and identify
possible categories of reasons.
Collaborated with Jason Deska, a
Psychology major from Notre Dame
University.
Perform preliminary analyses using these codes
and other data from the study.
Conduct a literature review for background
support on the differences between human-
administered interviews and virtual-human
administered interviews. 26
Example of Open Responses
Facial expression and voice were
appealing.
I feel that she is more like me.
I like blondes!
27
The Sixteen Categories
Age Race
Comfort Voice
Distinctiveness Audio
Personality/
Appearance
Self-Presentation
Human
No Preference
Familiarity
Other
Similarity to Self
No Answer
Gender Attractiveness
28
Frequencies
How many respondents used each of
the sixteen categories to justify their
choices?
29
Frequency of Categories Coded
P 60
E
R 50
C 40
E
N 30
T 20
C 10 Series1
O 0
D
E
D
REASONS 30
Race of Chosen VI
90 Black
80
70 White
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Black White
31
Conclusions
Some analysis still remains for this study
But it is clear that virtual interviewers can
sometimes have similar effects as human
interviewers on respondents
Our findings are good and bad – We want to
replicate the way human interviewers engage
respondents but don't want to replicate social
desirability effects.
Yet it can also improve future studies greatly
since it is possible to control the interviewer’s
race, gender, and quality of voice, for example.
32
Thank You
Fred Conrad
George Myers
Anita Johnson
The Survey Methodology Program Staff
My Fellow SRC Interns
Jason Deska
33
The Michigan Study of Life After Prison
Madeline Lupei
University of Michigan
Social Environment & Health
Jeffrey Morenoff & David Harding
34
Michigan Study of Life After Prison
Analysis of Michigan Department of
Corrections (MDOC) administrative records
Analysis of records of parolees released from
Michigan prisons in 2003 (population N = 11,069,
sample n=3,689)
Purpose: understand how neighborhood context
affects recidivism, employment, and substance use
Recidivism= criminal offenses committed by individuals
convicted of a prior offense
MDOC databases:
Corrections Management Information Systems
(CMIS)
Offender Management Network Information system
(OMNI)
Parole officers’ case notes on parolees
36
Analysis of MDOC administrative records
37
38
Geocoding Residential
Addresses
ArcGIS
Standardizing addresses
Common types of
mistakes
Washtenaw st Washtenaw ave
48104 48105
Ypislanti Ypsilanti
41
Residential Mobility
42
Neighborhood characteristics of average
Michigan resident vs average parolee
Average
Michigan
Census Characteristics Resident Average Parolee Difference
%Poor 10.8 20.5 9.7
Unemployment rate 6.2 10.4 4.2
%Households on public assistance 8.0 16.2 8.1
%Female-headed families with children 24.0 43.1 19.1
Median family income $55,137 $40,082 -$15,055
%Families with income $75k+ 29.68 17.80 -11.89
%College graduates 21.67 13.72 -7.95
%Less than H.S. education 16.88 25.45 8.57
%Professional/managerial occupations 30.02 22.58 -7.43
%Black 15.13 42.45 27.32
%Hispanic 3.24 5.64 2.40
%Foreign born 5.27 4.52 -0.75
%17 and under 26.09 27.69 1.60
%18-34 23.01 26.17 3.16
%75 or older 2.09 1.82 -0.27
%In same house 5+ years 57.22 54.31 -2.91
%Owner occupied houses 74.44 58.11 -16.33
43
Neighborhood inequality among returning parolees
45
Future Analysis
46
Acknowledgments
Jeffrey Morenoff and David Harding
SRC Interns
47
Dynamic Treatment
Regimes in Economics
Shulamite Chiu
University of Michigan– Ann Arbor
48
Background and Role
Background:
Economics B.A. from University of Michigan– Ann
Arbor
Incoming Sustainable Systems M.S. student in
SNRE
Aspiring to Economics PhD
Role: Linking dynamic treatment regimes in
economics and statistics
Weekly presentations to the lab
Literature review
49
Current Applications of DTRs:
Marlowe et al. (2008)
Marlowe’s adaptive
drug court program
High risk if offender has
either
“more severe antisocial
propensities”
OR
“treatment-refractory drug
use histories”
50
Current Applications of DTRs:
Marlowe et al. (2008)
51
Current Applications of DTRs
Jobs First
Connecticut Welfare Reform
Key goal: “replacing welfare with work”
Time limits
52
Jobs First DTR
At beginning of
Evaluation at Evaluation at
unemployment, Treatment 1 u=21 months Treatment 2 u=27 months
u=21 months u=27 months
u=0
http://www.ct.gov/dss/cwp/view.asp?a=2353&q=305266 53
DTR on Jobs First Website
http://www.ct.gov/dss/cwp/view.asp?a=2353&q=305288 54
How are the treatment rules created?
DYNAMIC TREATMENT
REGIMES
55
Constructing a DTR: Two-Stage
Randomized Trial
Stage 1 Response Stage 2 Rewards
TRT A Y
Treatment TRT B Y
Response?
1
R
TRT C Y
R
TRT A Y
Treatment
Response? TRT B Y
2
R
TRT C Y
56
Economics & Statistics
Similarities
Parameters
Impact of treatment
Heckman, Smith, and Clements (1997)
Murphy (2003)
Conditioning on personal characteristics
Lechner and Smith (2007)
Murphy (2003)
Optimizing some outcome variable(s)
Lechner and Smith (2007)
Robins (2004)
57
Economics & Statistics
Differences
Economics
Focus on cost-benefit and impact analyses
Lechner and Smith (2007)
Interested in effect of treatment on the treated
Sianesi (2004)
Often non-experimental data
Lechner and Wiehler (2007)
Statistics
Pay less attention to cost
Interested in effect of treatment on all individuals who
qualify
Often data from randomized experiments
58
Any Further Questions?
Email me at shulamic@umich.edu
Thanks to Susan Murphy, Jeff Smith, Eric Laber, and the rest of the
QMP lab for their encouragement and input these past ten weeks!
Thanks also to George Myers, Anita Johnson, and the SRC Interns!
59
Assessing the Well-Being of
Older Adults:
Preliminary Findings from the
Well-Being and Time Use Study (WATS)
Jennifer Morack
Sponsor: Jacqui Smith, PhD
Health and Retirement Study
60
Background
Survey measures of well-being
Typical measures require a global evaluation of life, such
as life satisfaction, positive and negative affect.
e.g., “How satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days?”
62
WATS Design
63
WATS and the Health and
Retirement Study (HRS)
Many measures in WATS come from HRS so that findings
can be benchmarked against a nationally representative
sample.
• NIA-funded publically-
available data (approx.
N = 31,000)
• representative of >50
population
• five cohorts born prior
to 1953 (status 2009)
• household sampling
strategy, including both
members of married
couples
•multidisciplinary
longitudinal data
64
Protocol
1) Baseline
Demographics, social network, physical activity,
functional limitations, cognitive tasks (free recall,
delayed recall, word fluency, processing speed)
2) Physical Measures
Blood pressure, grip strength, near vision, height, weight
3) Psychosocial & Lifestyle Questionnaire
Includes global well-being measures: Satisfaction with
Life Scale (SWLS, Pavot & Diener, 1993), Positive and
Negative Affect Scale (PANAS, Watson & Clark, 1994)
4) WATS Experienced-Well Being Interview
65
WATS Experienced Well-Being
Interview
Asks participants about their day yesterday,
what they did, how they felt
E.g., satisfaction with yesterday:
71
Older Adults Higher in Global Well-Being but
No Age Differences in Well-Being Yesterday
5
65 and under
4 * >65
3
0
Global life Yesterday
satisfaction satisfaction
73
Acknowledgements
Funding for studies provided by NIH-NIA
1R21-AG032456-01
1RC-1AG035576-01
74
Elective Surgery,
Paid & Unpaid Work
Amongst Older Adults
Meaghan Hafner
University of Michigan
78
Data
Health & Retirement Study (HRS)
A longitudinal nationally-representative study of 22,000+
people aged 50 and older (and their spouses)
Conducted every 2 years since 1992
Focuses primarily on health and retirement decisions in
later life
For our purposes:
Use 2002-2006 waves of data
29,733 person-waves of data from older adults with
arthritis
Self-report data on work, health, socioeconomic
characteristics, functional limitations, productive activities
79
Data
Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe
(SHARE)
A longitudinal and cross-national panel of more than
45,000 individuals aged 50 and over in Europe
Conducted every 2 years since 2004
Focuses primarily on health, socio-economic status and
social and family networks
For our purposes:
Use of 2004-2006 waves of data
11,122 person-waves of data from older adults with
arthritis
Self-reported data on work, health, productive activities,
joint replacement asked in wave 1 only
80
Preliminary Findings
Proportion of Adults 60 and Older Working in the
U.S. and Europe
0.5
Arthritis Everyone
0.4
0.33
0.3
0.26
0.2
0.16
0.1 0.08
0
U.S. Europe
81
Preliminary Analysis
Proportion of Adults 60 and Older Working
in the U.S. and Europe
0.5
Arthritis Everyone
0.4
0.33 0.32
0.30
0.3 0.28
0.26
0
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Sw
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82
Model/Estimation
Regress measures of any work on receipt of surgery
comparing countries in Europe with higher levels of
work to those with lower levels of work
Countries with higher levels of work:
Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland
Countries with lower levels of work:
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy,
Netherlands, Spain
83
Results
84
Results
Care for Provide
Working Grandkids Informal Care
Joint Surgery 0.077* 0.007 -0.039
(0.04) (0.06) (0.06)
Country 0.072 0.049 0.157
(0.02) (0.03) (0.03)
Interaction -0.096 0.087 0.104
(0.08) (0.13) (0.13)
R2 0.25 0.03 0.11
N 2730 2438 2726
Standard errors in parentheses.
Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data, 2004-2006.
Models include previously described controls
85
Results
Find that joint surgery has effect on paid
work
Those who have joint surgery in countries
with higher levels of work are 5 percentage
points more likely to be employed
Joint surgery has no effect on grandchild
care or volunteerism
86
Conclusions
Potential changes to Medicare affecting
elective surgery availability should
consider labor supply consequences
Implications for Social Security and long-term
care provision
87
Mama, Nana, and Friends: The
Buffering Effect of Social
Relations on the Stress-
Depression Relationship in
Children
Attachment theory:
Bowlby (1988)
89
Adapted Convoy Model
Properties
of
the Person
Stress
Interaction
Stress by
Network
Properties
of the
Situation
90
Previous Research
Daily hassles-depression link
37%
48%
52%
63%
93
Social Relations and Mental Health across the Lifespan Study, 1992. Principal investigator, Toni Antonucci
Measures
Social relations
Network composition
(Proportion from immediate family, extend family, and
friends) YOU
Negative Relationship Quality (Immediate and extend
family, and friends)
e.g. Who gets on your nerves the most?
Positive Relationship Quality (Immediate and extend family,
and friends)
e.g. Who do you feel safest with?
50
Percentage of total Network
40
30
20
10
0
Immediate Family Extended Family Friend
95
Negative Relationship Quality
90
Proportion of Negative Relationship
80
70
60
Quality
50
40
30
20
10
0
Immediate Family Extended Family Friend 96
Positive Relationship Quality
60
Proportion of Positive Relationship
50
40
Quality
30
20
10
0
Immediate Family Extended Family Friend 97
R1 Do Daily Hassles predict depression?
98
(β= .45; p=.000***; r2= .21; p< .000***)
R2 : Is the association between hassles and depression
buffered by social network composition?
99
(r2 change= .020 , p=.034)
R2 : Is the association between hassles and depression
buffered by social network composition?
100
(r2 change= .017 , p=.046)
R3 : Is the relationship between hassles and
depression buffered by positive relationship quality?
101
(r2 change= .022 , p=.027)
R3 : Is the relationship between hassles and depression
buffered by negative relationship quality?
102
(r2 change= .017 , p=.049)
Summary and Implications
1. Stress predicted depression
2. Buffers
Relationship composition
Relationship quality
3. Developmental changes
103
Future Research
Other network characteristics
Clinical outcomes
104
Acknowledgements
Kira Birditt
Noah Webster
Toni Antonucci
Life Course Development Staff
George Myers and Anita Johnson
SRC Summer Interns
105
Thank you
106
Meet The Interns
107