Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Temperature
– A 1oC increase in temperature could lead to an
eight percent increase in the incidence of
diarrhoea (Checkley et al., 2000)
Humidity
Water ecology (algae,bacteria)
Vector bionomics
Background
Certainty
Response
Early Warning Surveillance
Epidemic
Early cases
Sentinel cases
Environmental observations
Climate forecasts
Time
Lessons Learned from Famine
Early Warning Systems
Data
– Spatial and temporal coverage of critical weather
variables
Methods
– Simple correlation; trend analysis; etc.
Acceptability / credibility
– Timely; relevant; compatible with existing
decision-making protocols; accessible
Context
– Early warning systems are not contingent on
climate information alone
El Niño
Geographical Spread of Dengue
Fever in SEA Region
Countries in SEA Region reporting Dengue in 2003 and in 2007
Prediction of Possible Health
Outcomes
25
15
-5
-15
-25
Niño+1 Niño0 Other Years
(1960-1992)
Bouma et al., 1997
Using Local Weather Data to
Predict Epidemics
Incidence of
malaria in
highland site in
Ethiopia (black
line). Incidence
predicted from a
model using local
meteorological
data (blue dotted
line).
100
8 9 10
90 17
80 No
70
60
50
92 91 90
40 83
30
20
Sheridan, 2007 10
0 Yes
Dayton Phila. Phoenix Toronto
Cholera
Malaria
Dengue fever
Japanese encephalitis
Influenza
Leptospirosis
Rift valley fever (Major zoonosis)
Borreliosis (Tick-borne)
Others
What Have We Learned from
Other Systems?
Early warning systems can save lives
(e.g., hurricanes, famine)