 Roldán Aponte Jorge Alberto

 Sainz de Aja García Fernando

 González Angel (Darki)
 González Ortiz Kevin
 El otro vato que aparece como “werito”
This method multiplies sales Simulated
data from the previous year 2006 2005
by a user specified factor; for Month 2004 Sales 2005 Sales Forecast Forecast
example, 1.10 for a 10% January 125 128 147
increase, or 0.97 for a 3%
decrease. February 132 117 135
Required sales history: One March 115 115 132
year for calculating the
forecast plus the user April 137 125 144
specified number of time May 122 122 140
periods for evaluating
forecast performance. June 130 137 158

July 141 129 148

August 128 140 161

September 118 131 151

October 123 114 131 141.45

November 139 119 137 159.85

December 133 137 158 152.95

 Forecast Calculation
User specified factor (processing option 1a) = 1.15 in this example.

 Simulated Forecast Calculation

October, 2004 sales = 123 * 1.15 = 141.45

November, 2004 sales = 139 * 1.15 = 159.85

December, 2004 sales = 133 * 1.15 = 152.95

 Percent of Accuracy Calculation

POA = (141.45 + 159.85 + 152.95) / (114 + 119 + 137) * 100 = 454.25 / 370 = 122.770

 Mean Absolute Deviation Calculation

MAD = (|141.45 - 114| + |159.85 - 119| + |152.95 - 137|) / 3 = (27.45 + 40.85 +
15.95) / 3 = 84.25/3 = 28.08
 Simulated
2006 2005 This method multiplies sales
Month 2004 Sales 2005 Sales Forecast Forecast data from the previous year
January 125 128 120 by a factor calculated by the
February 132 117 110 system.
March 115 115 108
Required sales history: One
April 137 125 117
year for calculating the
May 122 122 114
forecast plus the user
June 130 137 128 specified number of time
July 141 129 121 periods for evaluating
August 128 140 131 forecast performance.
September 118 131 123

October 123 114 107 127.13178

November 139 119 111 143.66925

December 133 137 128 137.4677

 Forecast Calculation
Range of sales history to use in calculating growth factor (processing option 2a) =
3 in this example.
Sum the final three months of 2005: 114 + 119 + 137 = 370
Sum the same three months for the previous year: 123 + 139 + 133 = 395
The calculated factor = 370/395 = 0.9367
Calculate the forecasts:
January, 2005 sales = 128 * 0.9367 = 119.8036 or about 120
February, 2005 sales = 117 * 0.9367 = 109.5939 or about 110
March, 2005 sales = 115 * 0.9367 = 107.7205 or about 108
 Simulated Forecast Calculation

Sum the three months of 2005 prior to holdout period (July, Aug, Sept): 129 + 140
+ 131 = 400
Sum the same three months for the previous year: 141 + 128 + 118 = 387
The calculated factor = 400/387 = 1.033591731
Calculate simulated forecast:
October, 2004 sales = 123 * 1.033591731 = 127.13178
November, 2004 sales = 139 * 1.033591731 = 143.66925
December, 2004 sales = 133 * 1.033591731 = 137.4677
 Percent of Accuracy Calculation
POA = (127.13178 + 143.66925 + 137.4677) / (114 + 119 + 137) * 100 = 408.26873 /
370 * 100 = 110.3429

 Mean Absolute Deviation Calculation

MAD = (|127.13178 - 114| + |143.66925 - 119| + |137.4677- 137|) / 3 = (13.13178+
24.66925 + 0.4677)/3 = 12.75624
The demand in question has a linear trend, which is forecast for the next 10
months through the method of
"Annual Mobile Trend" (TAM), which consists of adding the sales of the
current month plus the accumulated of the last 12 months,
to what we subtract the sales figure of the previous year during that same
month.
for the figure 9865 corresponds to the sum of the first 6 data (1000
+ 987 + 1002 + 1324 + 1562 + 1890), so on until period 14. Then
a simple regression of sales and periods is made, the linear equation
(see graph 5), it is replaced for all values ​of X (monthly period) from
period 15 to 24 (see column of TAM).
 graph with the projected sales for the next 10
months
Sales forecast by TAM
 it is a simple calculation procedure that belongs to the Time Series
forecast category, that is, it uses historical information on the
performance of the variable that you want to predict in order to
generate a forecast of the same in the future
 The ideal scenario for the use of the Simple Moving Average method
is when the real demand does not present major short-term
variations, does not present a marked trend and ideally does not
present seasonality.
 Linear Approximation calculates a trend based
upon two sales history data points.

 Those two points define a straight trend line that

is projected into the future. Use this method with
caution, as long range forecasts are leveraged by
small changes in just two data points.

 Required sales history: The number of periods to

include in regression (processing option 5a), plus
1 plus the number of time periods for evaluating
forecast performance (processing option 19).
 Number of periods to include in regression (processing
option 5a) = 3 in this example
 For each month of the forecast, add the increase or
decrease during the specified periods prior to holdout
period the previous period.
 January forecast: (137 - 114)/2 + 137 = 148.5 or 149
 February forecast: (137 - 114)/2 * 2 + 137 = 160
 March forecast: (137 - 114)/2 * 3 + 137 = 171.5 or
172

 October 2004 sales = (131 - 129) / 2 + 131 = 132

 November 2004 sales = (114 - 140) / 2 + 114 = 101
 December 2004 sales = (119 - 131) /2 + 119 = 113

 POA = (132 + 101 + 113) / (114 + 119 + 137) * 100 =

93.5135

 MAD = (|132 - 114| + |101 - 119| + |113 - 137|) / 3 =

20
 The linear regression determines the
values ​for a and b in the forecast formula Y =
a + bX in order to fit a straight line to the
sales history data. This method determines
values ​for a, b and c in the forecast formula Y
= a + bX + cX2 in order to adjust a curve to
the sales history data. This method can be
useful when a product is in the transition
between the stages of a life cycle ..
 ||||
 Forecast specifications: the formulas are a, b and
c to adjust a curve to exactly three points.
Specification in process option 7a, the number of
time periods of the data accumulated in each of
the three points. In this example n = 3.
Therefore, the actual sales data from April to
June are combined in the first point, Q1. The
months of July to September are added to create
the second quarter and the sum of October to the
third quarter. The curve will be adjusted to the
three values ​Q1, Q2 and Q3. Sales history
required: 3 * n periods to calculate the forecast
plus the number of time periods required to
evaluate the forecast performance (PBF).
 Number of periods to include in regression (processing option 6a) = 3 in this example
 For each month of the forecast, add the increase or decrease during the specified periods prior to holdout period the previous period.
 January forecast:
 Average of the previous three months = (114 + 119 + 137)/3 = 123.3333
 Summary of the previous three months with weight considered
 = (114 * 1) + (119 * 2) + (137 * 3) = 763
 Difference between the values
 = 763 - 123.3333 * (1 + 2 + 3) = 23
 Ratio = (1^2 + 2^2 + 3^2) - {(1 + 2 + 3)/3}^2 * 3 = 14 - 12 = 2
 Value1 = Difference/Ratio = 23/2 = 11.5
 Value2 = Average - value1 * ratio = 123.3333 - 11.5 * 2 = 100.3333
 Forecast = (1 + n) * value1 + value2 = 4 * 11.5 + 100.3333 = 146.333 or 146
 February forecast:
 Forecast = 5 * 11.5 + 100.3333 = 157.8333 or 158
 March forecast:
 Forecast = 6 * 11.5 + 100.3333 = 169.3333 or 169
 A.8.2 Simulated Forecast Calculation
 October 2004 sales:
 Average of the previous three months
 = (129 + 140 + 131)/3 = 133.3333
 Summary of the previous three months with weight considered
 = (129 * 1) + (140 * 2) + (131 * 3) = 802
 Difference between the values
 = 802 - 133.3333 * (1 + 2 + 3) = 2
 Ratio = (1^2 + 2^2 + 3^2) - {(1 + 2 + 3)/3}^2 * 3 = 14 - 12 = 2
 Value1 = Difference/Ratio = 2/2 = 1
 Value2 = Average - value1 * ratio = 133.3333 - 1 * 2 = 131.3333
 Forecast = (1 + n) * value1 + value2 = 4 * 1 + 131.3333 = 135.3333
 November 2004 sales
 Average of the previous three months
 = (140 + 131 + 114)/3 = 128.3333
 Summary of the previous three months with weight considered
 = (140 * 1) + (131 * 2) + (114 * 3) = 744
 Difference between the values = 744 - 128.3333 * (1 + 2 + 3) = -25.9999
 Value1 = Difference/Ratio = -25.9999/2 = -12.9999
 Value2 = Average - value1 * ratio = 128.3333 - (-12.9999) * 2 = 154.3333
 Forecast = 4 * -12.9999 + 154.3333 = 102.3333
 December 2004 sales
 Average of the previous three months
 = (131 + 114 + 119)/3 = 121.3333
 Summary of the previous three months with weight considered
 = (131 * 1) + (114 * 2) + (119 * 3) = 716
 Difference between the values
 = 716 - 121.3333 * (1 + 2 + 3) = -11.9999
 Value1 = Difference/Ratio = -11.9999/2 = -5.9999
 Value2 = Average - value1 * ratio = 121.3333 - (-5.9999) * 2 = 133.3333
 Forecast = 4 * (-5.9999) + 133.3333 = 109.3333
 A.8.3 Percent of Accuracy Calculation
 POA = (135.33 + 102.33 + 109.33) / (114 + 119 + 137) * 100 = 93.78
 This method is similar to Method 1, (Percent
Over Last Year).

 In the Percent Over Last Year method, the

projection is based on data from the same
time period in the previous year. The Flexible
Method adds the capability to specify a time
period other than the same period last year to
use as the basis for the calculations.
 Simulated The user
2005
Month 2004 Sales 2005 Sales 2006 Sales Forecast specified number
of periods back
January 125 128 131
to the base
February 132 117 137 period, plus the
March 115 115 158 number of time
periods required
April 137 125 151
for evaluating
May 122 122 157 the forecast
June 130 137 181 performance.
July 141 129 173

August 128 140 181

September 118 131 208

October 123 114 199 148.35

November 139 119 208 161 Base period

December 133 137 240 150.65

October 2004 sales = 129 * 1.15 = 148.35

November 2004 sales = 140 * 1.15 = 161
December 2004 sales = 131 * 1.15 = 150.65
 MAD = (|148 - 114| + |161 - 119| + |151 -
137|) / 3 = 30

 Its a high number for a forecast.

 This method is similar to Method 4, (Moving
Average). But it differs in that it’s assigned
weights must total to 1.00. For example,
when n = 3, assign weights of 0.6, 0.3, and
0.1, with the most recent data receiving the
greatest weight
 0.1
0.3
0.6
.

1.0
 Simulated
2006 2005
Month 2004 Sales 2005 Sales Forecast Forecast
January 125 128 129

February 132 117 131

March 115 115 131

April 137 125 131

May 122 122 131

June 130 137 131

July 141 129 131 0.1

August 128 140 131 0.3
September 118 131 131 0.6
.
October 123 114 131 133.5
1.0
November 139 119 131 121.7

December 133 137 131 118.7

 October 2004 sales = 129 * 0.1 + 140 * 0.3 * 131 * 0.6 = 133.5
 November 2004 sales = 140 * 0.1 + 131 * 0.3 + 114 * 0.6 = 121.7
 December 2004 sales = 131 * 0.1 + 114 * 0.3 + 119 * 0.6 = 118.7
 MAD = (|133.5 - 114| + |121.7 - 119| +
|118.7 - 137|) / 3 = 13.5

 It’s a good nunmber for a forecast.

 Is a sophisticated weighted averaging method that is still relatively easy to use and
understand. Each new forecast is based on the previous forecast plus a percentage
of the difference between that forecast and the actual value of the series at that
point.
Formula:

Example: DAM:
α=0.1 Actual
Actual Period demand Forecast P. Desviacion A.
Period demand Forecast P. Forecast 1 42 42 0
1 42 42 42 2 40 42 5.88
2 40 42 42 3 43 41.2 1.8
3 43 41.2 41.8 4 40 41.92 -1.92
4 40 41.92 41.38 5 41 41.15 -0.15
5 41 41.15 41.728 6 39 41.09 -2.09
6 39 41.09 41.135 7 46 40.25 5.75
7 46 40.25 40.881 8 44 42.55 1.45
8 44 42.55 40.825 9 45 43.13 1.87
9 45 43.13 42.695 10 38 43.88 -5.88
10 38 43.88 43.317 11 40 41.53 -1.53
11 40 41.53 43.292 |Suma|= 28.32

1) F= 42 + (0.1 42 − 42) = 42 DAM= 28.32/11=2.57

2) 2) F= 42 + (0.1 40 − 42 ) = 41.8
 Exponential smooting with trends
A variation of simple exponential smoothing can be used when a time series exhibits a
linear trend. It is called trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, which is appropriate
only when data vary around an average or have step or gradual changes. If a series
exhibits trend, and simple smoothing is used on it, the forecasts will all lag the trend if
the data are increasing, each forecast will be too low; if decreasing, each forecast will
be too high. Formula:
F1=α(real demand of last period)+(1- α)
T1=β(forecast of the actual period-
(Forecast of las period+trend of last Forecast of last period)+(1-β)
period) (trend of last period)
FIT=F1+T1
Example: DAM:
α=.2 β=.4 Period Demand real FIT DAM
Demand
1 12
Period real F1 T1 FIT
1 12 11 2 2 17 14.72 2.28
2 17 12.8 1.92 14.72 3 20 17.2784 2.7216
3 20 15.176 2.1024 17.2784 4 19 20.142848 -1.142848
4 19 17.82272 2.320128 20.142848 5 24 22.1429786 1.8570214
5 24 19.9142784 2.22870016 22.1429786 6 21 24.8916447 -3.8916447
6 21 22.5143828 2.37726188 24.8916447
7 31 26.1792461 4.8207539
7 31 24.1133158 2.0659303 26.1792461
8 28 29.5949875 -1.5949875
8 28 27.1433969 2.45159061 29.5949875
9 36 29.27599 2.32399161 31.5999816 9 36 31.5999816 4.4000184
10 32.4799853 2.67599309 35.1559784 |more|= 24.28
2) F1=.2(12)+(1-.2)(11+2)=12.8 DAM=24.28/9=2.69
T1=.4(12.8-11)+(1-.4)(2)=1.92
3)F1=.2(17)+(1-.2)(12.8+1.92)=15.76
T1=.4(15.176-12.8)+(1-.4)(1.92)=2.1024
Roldán Aponte Jorge Alberto:
Conclusion:
All this methods try to forecast and control the
production, some of them forecasting in vertical way
(knowing the real demand of the period 1,2,3,4 they
can forecast the number 5, methods like:moving
average, weigthed moving average) and others
forecast all the periods(if you have real demand or
12 periods of a cycle you can forecast the next 12
periods of the cycle, methods like: exponential
smooting).
In conclusion this method forecast the production for
to help some methods of work like just in time, kan
ban and heijunka.
 González Ortiz Kevin:
Personally, these methods are very important and it would be good to learn them as they have to be since they will
serve us a lot in the work aspect.
 Wero
Among the most common and basic are: Moving average (PM), Moving weighted average (PMP),
Simple exponential smoothing (SES) and for the topic of sales trend we have the regression
analysis, in its linear, logarithmic trend versions , exponential and potential, finally you can
also generate forecasts using the "Annual Mobile Trend" method.
 DARKI
In the industry these methods support us as a tool to make a good decision but they are not
100% feasible. Even the different methods some of them are simple but with acceptable
percentages.
 Sainz de Aja García Fernando
 It’s so useful know about these methods, because let us to predict the next value about our sales or incomes. We need to remember that it is only an
approximation to stay close to the real value. If we want to select the most accuracy method, we must to add more variables and constants.

 Roldán Aponte Jorge Alberto:

 All this methods try to forecast and control the production, some of them forecasting in vertical way (knowing the real
demand of the period 1,2,3,4 they can forecast the number 5, methods like:moving average, weigthed moving average) and
others forecast all the periods(if you have real demand or 12 periods of a cycle you can forecast the next 12 periods of the
cycle, methods like: exponential smooting).
 In conclusion this method forecast the production for to help some methods of work like just in time, kan ban and
heijunka.
  Bibliography
 • Hanke, John E. and Wichern, Dean W. Forecasts in business. Pearson Education, 2006, pp. 1-
13
 • Keat, Paul G. and Young, Philip K. Y. Business economics. Pearson Education, 2004, pp. 221-
269
 • Robbins, Stephen P. Administration. Pearson Education, 2005, p.209.

 Bibiliografia
• William J. S.(1996), Operations management, Recuperado
de:https://es.scribd.com/document/97602774/William-J-Stevenson-Production-Operations-
Management-5th-Ed

 https://docs.oracle.com/cd/E26228_01/doc.93/e20706/ap_forcst_calc_ex.htm#WEAFC309

 file:///C:/Users/angel/Downloads/Parts1-3.pdf

 Bibiliografia
• Heizer J. (2003), Direccion de la produccion, direcciones estrategicas” Texas Lutheran
University, Pearson: Prentice Hall.
• William J. S.(1996), Operations management, Recuperado
de:https://es.scribd.com/document/97602774/William-J-Stevenson-Production-Operations-
Management-5th-Ed