National Situationer and

Discernment Circle
February 23, 2019
Ateneo de Manila
Discussion

Midterm election is
commonly understood as an electoral cycle
where people elect members of the
government exactly halfway of the term
It can be a moment of -

•DISRUPTION •CONSOLIDATION
•When we can •Way for the
create something government to
that would bring validate its
change in the programs or
composition of the further its projects
government
Discussion
B.
A. Act as a
referendum for
Shape political
the sitting
contours/climate
government
leading to the
general election Functions
Of the D.
C. Midterm A means to
contest a highly
An opportunity for Elections powerful bloc.
emerging political
actors to change
political narrative
See the words of Prof. James Campbell, Prof . Robert
Erikson, Prof. Alan Abramowitz among others
Discussion
B.
A. Act as a
referendum for
Shape political
the sitting
contours/climate
government
leading to the
general election Questions
We can ask D.
C. A means to
An opportunity for contest a highly
emerging political powerful bloc.
actors to change
political narrative
See the words of Prof. James Campbell, Prof . Robert
Erikson, Prof. Alan Abramowitz among others
Discussion
2019 midterm elections
(May 13, 2019)
243 seats(rep) and 780 1,628
59 seats (PL) City Councilors
Provincial Board
In the House of
Members
Representatives 81 145
12 Provincial City Mayors/Vice-
Seats in the Governors/ Mayors
Senate Vice Governors
Discussion
2019 midterm elections
(May 13, 2019)
11,916 24
Municipal ARMM Regional
Councilors Assemblymen
1,489 1
Municipal 4
ARMM
Mayors/ Vice- Governors/
Mayors Vice Governors
Discussion
2019 midterm elections
(March 13, 2019)
-7 surveys
(December 2017- SWS; March 2018 and June 2018- Pulse Asia;
September 2018- SWS/Pulse Asia; December 2018- SWS/Pulse Asia)
-4 slates:
b.
a. d.
PDP-
Hugpong c.
ng Re-
LABAN Opposition
Pagbabag electionists
(Admin) o (Admin)

-Re-electionists and Admin will likely dominate

Discussion
2019 midterm elections
(March 13, 2019)
Case in point:
-7 Re-electionists (Pimentel, Angara, Aquino, Ejercito, Poe, Binay and Villar)
-4 Graduating (Escudero, Honasan, Legarda and Trillanes
-Incumbents
a. Opposition (Drilon, Pangilinan, Hontiveros, and de
Lima)
b. Admin (Sotto, Lacson, Gordon, Zubiri, Pacquiao,
Gatchalian, Recto, and Villanueva)

*They need 18 votes or ¾ of the total votes in the Senate to change the constitution
Issues that will define the Things that may affect the
2019 midterm election: 2019 midterm election:
a Cha-cha a Fake news operations

Assassinations of
b Federalism b
LGU officials

c Foreign Relations c Budget Insertions

(China)

d Train Law d Church Attacks

Parting Shots

Things we should be reflecting on

1 2 3 4
Fragmented Weak
Distracted Fake
Opposition democratic
Population News
discourse
 IMPROVISE
(Not Just Organize And Antogonize)

1 2 3

Be Be Be
CREATIVE INNOVATIVE INCLUSIVE
T H A N K YOU