CE 3500

Transportation Engineering

Trip Generation
January 14, 2011
ANNOUNCEMENTS
1. No class Monday – disregard syllabus
2. Notes have been posted to website
3. Would there be interest in moving
classroom to engineering building?
REVIEW
What do we need to do planning?
1. Zone structure
2. Network representation
3. Data source(s)
Example: Chicago regional
network (1790 zones)
Chicago regional network has
~12,000 nodes and ~39,000 links
Trip generation: What are the total number of
trips people make to and from each zone?

Trip distribution: What are the specific origins

and destinations for this total number of trips?

Mode choice: How many people will choose to

drive, walk, ride bicycles, use transit, etc.?

Route choice: What are the specific routes

people will use for their trips?
Example:
Trip generation: How many people arrive at
UW every morning?

Trip distribution: How many people are

coming to UW from each zone?

Mode choice: How many people will drive, walk,

use the shuttle, or ride bicycles?

Route choice: What roads will people choose?

(This gives information on congestion!)
 Trip generation: How many people arrive at
UW every morning?

Trip distribution: How many people are

coming to UW from each zone?

Mode choice: How many people will drive, walk,

use the shuttle, or ride bicycles?

Route choice: What roads will people choose?

(This gives information on congestion!)
TRIP GENERATION
Question #1: How many trips are
made by people living in each
zone?

Zone
?
Question #2: How many trips are
coming to each zone?

Zone
?
Usually, we divide trips by purpose
(work, shopping, recreation, etc.)

Work? Work?
Shop? Zone
Shop?

Why?
Using travel surveys, we can estimate
how many trips a household will
make.
Trip
generation 1.5 work trips
0.8 shopping trips
(per day)

3 household members
1 child
2 vehicles owned
Annual income $45,000
We can then scale this up to the
entire zone (since we assume a
homogeneous population)

6 x 1.5 = 9 work trips

6 x 0.8 = 4.8 shop trips
(per day)
6 households with an average of:
3 household members
1 child
2 vehicles owned
Annual income $45,000
Linear regression is used to relate
number of trips made to household
characteristics
Linear regression is used to relate
number of trips made to household
characteristics

Independent
variable:
Number of
trips

Dependent variable(s):
Household characteristics
The line is not exact: no household behaves
exactly like the model predicts. But on
average it is reasonable.

Independent
variable:
Number of
trips

Dependent variable(s):
Household characteristics
Example linear regression equation.

Regression coefficients

Work
productions
(# of work Dependent variable(s):
trips) Household characteristics
Example linear regression equation.

Income
# Vehicles # Workers

# Household
members
Example linear regression equation.

Income
# Vehicles # Workers

# Household
members

Say income is $50,000, household owns 3

vehicles, contains 5 members (2 are
employed)
Example linear regression equation.

Income
# Vehicles # Workers

# Household
members

Substituting these values in the equation

gives 1.6 work trips per day.
Here’s another equation:

Ps = 0.3 + 0.5(# members) + 0.2(# children)

+ 0.1 (# cars)

How many trips would a household make

with 3 cars, 4 members, and 2 children?
Here’s another equation:

Ps = 0.3 + 0.5(# members) + 0.2(# children)

+ 0.1 (# cars)

0.3 + 0.5 x 4 + 0.2 x 2 + 0.1 x 3 = 3.0

How would this number change if they buy

one more car?
Here’s another equation:

Ps = 0.3 + 0.5(# members) + 0.2(# children)

+ 0.1 (# cars)

0.3 + 0.5 x 4 + 0.2 x 2 + 0.1 x 4 = 3.1

What if they have another child?

Here’s another equation:

Ps = 0.3 + 0.5(# members) + 0.2(# children)

+ 0.1 (# cars)

0.3 + 0.5 x 5 + 0.2 x 3 + 0.1 x 4 = 3.8

(Adding a child increases both # members and

# children. Be careful! A change in a household
may affect more than one characteristic.)
This is the approach used for productions
(how many trips do households make?)

A similar approach is used for attractions

(how many trips will be coming to a
particular place?)

Production Attraction
Different factors are used, for instance:

Work
attractions Household Office space
(# of people income in this in this zone
coming to zone
work here)
Example from notes:

1. Perform linear regression with survey

results (lab next Thursday)
Example from notes:

2. Substitute zone data (from census)

Example from notes:

Production

Attraction

4. Do same with attractions

Example from notes:

5. Scale them so they match

(Each trip consists of one production and

one attraction: they have to add up to the
same)
Example from notes:

5. Scale them so they match

Adjust attractions by multiplying them by

the right factor so they match productions.