Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Valuing Bonds
Slides by
Matthew Will
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
3- 2
Topics Covered
Using The Present Value Formula to Value
Bonds
How Bond Prices Vary With Interest Rates
The Term Structure of Interest Rates
Explaining the Term Structure
Real and Nominal Rates of Interest
Corporate Bonds and the Risk of Default
3- 3
Valuing a Bond
C1 C2 1,000 C N
PV ...
(1 r ) 1
(1 r ) 2
(1 r ) N
3- 4
Valuing a Bond
Example
If today is October 1, 2010, what is the value of the
following bond? An IBM Bond pays $115 every
September 30 for 5 years. In September 2015 it pays an
additional $1000 and retires the bond. The bond is rated
AAA (WSJ AAA YTM is 7.5%)
Cash Flows
Sept 11 12 13 14 15
115 115 115 115 1115
3- 5
Valuing a Bond
Example continued
If today is October 1, 2010, what is the value of the following bond? An
IBM Bond pays $115 every September 30 for 5 years. In September
2015 it pays an additional $1000 and retires the bond. The bond is rated
AAA (WSJ AAA YTM is 7.5%)
$1,161.84
3- 6
Valuing a Bond
Example - France
In December 2008 you purchase 100 Euros of bonds in France which
pay a 8.5% coupon every year. If the bond matures in 2012 and the
YTM is 3.0%, what is the value of the bond?
8.5 8 .5 8 .5 108.5
PV
1.03 1.03 1.03 1.034
2 3
120.44 Euros
3- 7
Valuing a Bond
16 16 16 16 216
PV
1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.0455
2 3 4
243.57 Yen
3- 8
Valuing a Bond
Example - USA
In February 2009 you purchase a 3 year US Government bond. The
bond has an annual coupon rate of 4.875%, paid semi-annually. If
investors demand a 0.6003% semiannual return, what is the price of the
bond?
$1,107.95
3- 9
Valuing a Bond
$918.09
Yield , %
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
1900
1906
1912
1918
1924
1930
1936
1942
Year
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
Interest Rate on 10yr Treasuries
3- 10
3- 11
110.00
105.00
Bond Price, %
100.00
95.00
90.00
85.00
80.00
0
10
Interest Rates, %
3- 12
3,000
2,500
30 yr bond
Bond Price, ($)
1,000
3 yr bond
500
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Interest Rates, %
3- 13
Duration Formula
duration
Modified Duration volatility (%)
1 yield
3- 14
Duration Calculation
Duration
Example (Bond 1)
Calculate the duration of our 6.875 % bond @ 4.9 % YTM
Duration
Example (Bond 2)
Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is
this bond’s duration?
Interest Rates
Short- and long-term interest rates do not always move in parallel.
Between September 1992 and April 2000 U.S. short-term rates rose
sharply while long term rates declined.
3- 19
1981
1987 & Normal
1976
Year
1 5 10 20 30
Spot Rate - The actual interest rate today (t=0)
Forward Rate - The interest rate, fixed today, on a loan made
in the future at a fixed time.
Future Rate - The spot rate that is expected in the future
Yield To Maturity (YTM) - The IRR on an interest bearing
instrument
Spot rates (%)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2009 Aug 15
2011 Aug 15
2013 Aug 15
2015 Aug 15
2017 Aug 15
2019 Aug 15
2021 Aug 15
2023 Aug 15
Maturity
2025 Aug 15
2027 Aug 15
2029 Aug 15
Yield Curve
2031 Aug 15
2033 Aug 15
2035 Aug 15
2037 Aug 15
U.S. Treasury Strip Spot Rates as of February 2009
3- 20
3- 21
Yield to Maturity
Example
A $1000 treasury bond expires in 5 years.
It pays a coupon rate of 10.5%. If the
market price of this bond is 107.88, what is
the YTM?
3- 23
Yield to Maturity
Example
A $1000 treasury bond expires in 5 years. It pays
a coupon rate of 10.5%. If the market price of this
bond is 107.88, what is the YTM?
C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
-1078.80 105 105 105 105 1105
Term Structure
What Determines the Shape of the Term Structure?
Expectations Theory
Real Interest Rate = The theoretical rate you pay when you
borrow money, as determined by supply and demand
r
Supply
Real r
Demand
$ Qty
3- 26
Inflation Rates
Annual rates of inflation in the United States from 1900–2008.
25
20
Annual Inflation (%)
15
10
0
1900
1906
1912
1918
1924
1930
1936
1942
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
-5
-10
-15
Average Inflation, %
Sw
it
Ne zer
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
th lan
er d
la
nd
s
US
Ca A
na
Sw da
ed
No en
r
Au wa
st y
De ra lia
nm
ar
k
UK
So Ire
G ut lan
er
m h d
an Af
ric
y A
(e ve a
x r
19 age
22
/
Be 2 3)
lg
iu
m
Averages from 1900-2006
Sp
a
Fr in
an
Global Inflation Rates
ce
Ja
pa
n
Ita
ly
3- 27
3- 28
Q: Why do we care?
A: This theory allows us to understand the Term Structure of
Interest Rates.
Q: So What?
A: The Term Structure tells us the cost of debt.
3- 29
1 rnominal (1 rreal ) (1 i)
Interest rate (%)
0
2
4
6
8
14
16
18
20
10
12
1-Jan-84
1-Apr-85
1-Jul-86
1-Oct-87
1-Jan-89
1-Apr-90
1-Jul-91
1-Oct-92
10 year real interest rate
1-Jan-94
1-Apr-95
1-Jul-96
1-Oct-97
1-Jan-99
10 year nominal interest rate
1-Apr-00
UK Bond Yields
1-Jul-01
1-Oct-02
1-Jan-04
1-Apr-05
1-Jul-06
1-Oct-07
1-Jan-09
3- 30
Govt. Bills vs. Inflation (’53-’08)
3- 31
United Kingdom
30.00
25.00 Inflation
20.00
15.00
%
T-Bill Returns
10.00
5.00
0.00
Govt. Bills vs. Inflation (’53-’08)
3- 32
United States
16.00
14.00
12.00
Inflation
10.00
8.00
T-Bill Returns
6.00
%
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
Govt. Bills vs. Inflation (’53-’08)
3- 33
Germany
12.00
10.00
T-Bill Returns
8.00
6.00
4.00
%
2.00 Inflation
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
3- 34
Bond Ratings
Key to bond ratings. The highest-quality bonds are rated triple A.
Bonds rated triple B or above are investment grade. Lower-rated bonds
are called high-yield, or junk, bonds.
Yield spread between corporate
and government bonds, %
0
1
2
4
5
6
7
-1
3
0.4
0.24
0.22
0.5
0.22
0.42
0.44
0.58
0.79
0.25
Years
-0.05
-0.01
0.83
Spread on Baa bonds
Yield Spread
0.75
Treasury bonds.
1.21
1.08
1.18
1.9
Spread on Aaa bonds
1.38
0.67
Yield spreads between corporate and 10-year
3- 35
3- 36
Web Resources
Click to access web sites
Internet connection required
http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter
www.ft.com
www.smartmoney.com
www.wsj.com
www.finpipe.com
www.investinginbonds.com
www.investorguide.com
http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter
www.federalreserve.gov
www.stls.frb.org
www.ustreas.gov