Fundada en 1972

LOGÍSTICA
JORGE EDUARDO CERVERA CÁRDENAS
Ingeniero Industrial. MBA+i
Docente-Investigador del Programa de Ingeniería Industrial
Líder del Grupo Estratégico para el Mejoramiento Aplicado
(GEMAS)
 LOGÍSTICA
JORGE EDUARDO CERVERA CÁRDENAS
Ingeniero Industrial. MBA+i
Docente-Investigador del Programa de Ingeniería Industrial
Jefe de Área de Investigación de la Facultad de Ingeniería
Líder del Grupo de Investigación GEMS
 FACTORS THAT HIT THE DESIGN Strategy

• Know What’s Important to the

Customer

• Reduce Defects

• Center Around Target

• Reduce Variation

Rev. 1.1 1/99 4

 Project Charter

D1 - Project CTQ’s
D2 - Project Charter
Define Measure

Control Analyze

Improve

Establish the purpose and plan for the improvement project

 Directions of Knowledge

A rt Science
Chaos
Discipline
Knowledge
Fire Fighting
Good Decisions
Waste

Where Are Your Processes Today?

Rev. 1.1 1/99 11
 Questions to be Answered Drive Data Collection

What do I need to know

to make Decisions?

Execution
Planning

How do I need to see

the information?

What tool will be used?

What data do we need?

Where is the data located?

Rev. 1.1 1/99 16

 The Changing Quality Philosophy

LSL USL LSL USL

No Losses @ the Target

Area outside the specification Deviation from the target

limits represent represents quality losses.
quality losses. Taguchi’s Loss Function
Conformance to Specifications Average Loss = k[2 + (y - T)2]

“Goal Post Mentality” “Variation is Evil”

-Some Production Guy

Old Philosophy of Quality New Philosophy of Quality

Rev. 1.1 1/99 21
 The Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ) “Iceberg”

Traditional Quality Costs

(tangible)
Inspection Administration /
Warranty Disposition
Scrap Concessions
Rework
Rejects

Additional Costs of Poor Quality

More Setups
(intangible)
Expediting costs
Lost sales Lost Opportunity
Late delivery (Difficult or impossible to measure)
Lost Customer Loyalty
Excess inventory Hidden Factory
Long cycle times
Engineering change orders

Average COPQ approximately 15% of Sales

Rev. 1.1 1/99 23
 Measures of Variation

Sample Variance: s2 = ^ 2
( an estimate of 2)
n

 =
^2 s2 =

i=1
(X i  X)2
n-1

Uses every value in the data set in its computation.

Mean squared distance from the mean

Sample Standard Deviation: s = ^

n

^ =s =
i=1
(X i  X)2
n-1

The square root of the variance and provides a measure of the

standard distance from the mean.
17
Rev1.1 1/99
 Standard Deviation

 Deviation is the distance from the mean.

 Deviation score = observation - true mean
 Variance = mean or average of squared deviation scores.
  is the symbol for variance.
 Standard Deviation = square root of variance.
 is the symbol for the standard deviation.

 = Population
Mean

 Deviation (distance from mean)

The Standard Deviation is a Measure of Variability

19
Rev1.1 1/99
 Population Vs. Sample

Population Mean
 X i
 = i  1
N

Population Standard  (X i   ) 2

Deviation  = S = i= 1
N

Sample Mean  xi
= x = i=1
n
n
Sample Standard
Deviation ^ =s =
i=1
(X i  X )2
n -1

20
Rev1.1 1/99
 The Standard Deviation



Point of Inflection

1
1 p(d)
p(d)

1 2 3 4 5 6

T USL
T USL

3
3
This is a 6 Sigma Process
Rev. 1.1 1/99 41
 THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM

Off-Target Variation
X X
XXX X
XX X X
XXXX X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
On-Target X

XXXXXX
XXX X
Center X XX X Reduce
Process Spread

Six
SixSigma
Sigmamethodology
methodologyidentifies
identifiesprocesses
processesthat
thatare
areoff-target,
off-target,
and/or
and/orhave
haveaahigh
highdegree
degreeof
ofvariation,
variation,and
andcorrects
correctsthe
theprocess
process
Rev. 1.1 1/99 34
 THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM - A STATISTICAL LOOK

Another View
Large
Off-Target Variation

LSL USL LSL USL

On-Target

Center Reduce
Process Spread
LSL USL

LSL = Lower spec limit

The statistical view of a USL = Upper spec limit

problem
Rev. 1.1 1/99 35
 Standard Deviation as it relates to specifications

If we superimpose the customer derived specification limits

on top of two distributions with different standard deviations...

Lower Upper
Specification Specification
Limit Limit
LSL USL
Standard deviation=.41 Standard deviation=.04

Outside of spec. limits All points in spec.

The smaller the standard deviation; the lower the amount of variation.
Variation is the Enemy!
27
Rev1.1 1/99
 DPM

DPM = defects per million units.

= Proportion of observations outside spec * 1,000,000
Lower spec Upper spec.

1st distribution

2nd distribution

3rd distribution

Defect
s

As the standard deviation increases DPM

increases
28
Rev1.1 1/99
 100 units
Rolled Throughput View
7
•No Credit is Given
for the First Pass
93 93/100=.93
Yield Loss that is
Reworked
Scrap 10 •Multiply the First Pass
83/93=.89 Yields of Each
83 Individual Step
10
What’s the Yield?
Scrap 3
70/83=.84
70 .93 x .89 x .84 x .9
5
Scrap 2 63/70=.9 63 %
63
(22 re-worked)
85 units

YYRT is Process Yield Without Rework ... Rework Creates

RT is Process Yield Without Rework ... Rework Creates
the
the“Hidden
14 Factory”
“Hidden Factory”
Rev. 2 7/99
 Rolled Through-Put Yield
Receive parts from Supplier

95.5% Yield
Following Receiving
Inspection and Line Fall-out...
45,000 ppm wasted
97% Yield
From Machining Operations

94.4% Yield
21,965 ppm wasted At Test Stands on
first attempt

YRT = .955*.97*.94.4 = 87.4%

46,652 ppm wasted Right
113,617 parts per million First
wasted opportunities Time

15
Rev. 2 7/99
 Extending the Concept

A given process has two operations. Each operation has a

first-time yield of 99 percent. The rolled-throughput yield
equals:
Process Centered Process Centered
Op 1 x Op 2 = Output

99% 99% 98%

Without Inspection or Test Without Inspection or Test Without Inspection or Test

. . . There is an 98% probability that any given unit of product could pass
through both operations defect free.

17
Rev. 2 Copyright 1995 Six Sigma Academy, Inc.
7/99
 Definition: Process Map

A Visual Display,

Using Common Symbols

& Format,

of a Process

Rev. 2 9/99 12
 Uses, Benefits and Learnings

• A visual representation of the process

• Flexibility in Levels
– Macro Vs Micro
• Demands verification/objectivity
– Hands-on exposure to local activities
• ID’s rework loops & redundancies
• Gives insight into bottlenecks, cycle times, inventory
• A training and orientation tool
• Identifies non-value added steps
• Helps identify when and where to collect data
• Identifies where different work teams use different
processes.

Rev. 2 9/99 13
 Versions of a Process
At least Three Versions
(Usually)

What You Think It Is... What It Actually Is... What You Would Like
It To Be...

Rev. 2 9/99 14
 Common Symbols
– Process Step or Operation (White)

– Delay (Red)

– Quality Check, Inspection or Measurement

(Yellow)

– Storage (Yellow)

– Decision (Blue)

– Transport or Movement of Material or

Transmission of Information (Yellow)

Rev. 2 9/99 16
 Basic Structure Ex. 2.3

Scrap

Bad
Bad

Good

Good

• How many Operational Steps are there?

• How many Decision Points?
• How many Measurement/Inspection Points?
• Where are the Bottlenecks?
Warehouse
• How many Re-work Loops?
Rev. 2 9/99 17
 Levels Of A Process

Business
Business
Process Development
(“Strategic”)

Business
Sales Underwriting Contracting Customer Service
Processes

SIPOC S Terms Docs Neg Close C

Underwriters (ext.) Customers
(int.) Cust. Service Dept.

Detailed
Subprocess
Map
Tasks Procedures

Rev. 2 9/99 18
 Sub-Process Mapping Techniques

• SIPOC
• Process Flowchart
• Alternate Path Method
• Deployment Or Cross-Functional
Map/Flowchart

Rev. 2 9/99 19
 Sub-Process Mapping

New Employment Process – SIPOC Map

Suppliers Inputs Process Outputs Requirements Customers

Exec. Hiring
Committee Budgets

RECRUITMENT PAYROLL
Dept. Job AND BENEFITS ORIENTATION NEW
AND Qualified MANAGER
Managers Descriptions ENROLLMENT TRAINING EMPLOYEE
SELECTION TAX SET-UP

Fits XYZ
Recruiters, Culture
Candidates
etc. CO-
WORKERS
Oriented to
Business

Set-up for
Payroll, CUSTOMERS
Benefits

Rev. 2 9/99 20
 Alternative Path

Leave
Hang
Voicemail
Up
Message
75

Decide
30 5 Say Hang
Who To Dial Conversation
“Hello” Up
Call 20
70
Look
Hang
Up
Up
#

Key:

60 Tools

40

Task Direction

Percentages

Rev. 2 9/99 21
 Deployment Or Cross-Functional

Customer Answer Discuss Agree Hang Up

Initiate Hang Draft

Contract Discuss Agree
Call Up Contract
Admin.

Attorney Review
Contract

Write
Dealer Contract

Who TIME
Rev. 2 9/99 22
 The Human Resource

• Team Members • Meet more People (Operators/

– Knowledge Individual Contributors)
– Experience – Create team
– Perspective (& Position) – Set expectations
– Personalities – Establish benefits
• Time & Scheduling • Stay Involved
– Availability – Promote objectivity
– Effectiveness - don’t get caught – Listen to suggestions as well as
up in picture-making complaints
• Method • Seek Multiple Opinions
– Brainstorming • Verify (without blaming)
– Individual vs. Group
– Verification

Rev. 2 9/99 26
 The Roadmap

Define

Measure

Analyze
Redesign

Modify Yes
Design?

No

Improve

Control

Rev. 1.1 1/99 48

 Process Capability Studies Answer the Following Questions:

How are we doing?

How well could we be doing?
What can we expect tomorrow, next week…?
Are the process improvements making a difference?
Which supplier is giving us the best quality?

ARE OUR CUSTOMER’S EXPECTATIONS BEING MET?

Rev. 1 12/98
 Objectives : Process Capability &
Performance for Variables Data

After this Module, we will be able to . . .

1. Determine Process Entitlement for Variables Data

2. Determine Process Performance for Variables Data
3. Calculate the Indices : CP, CPK, PP, PPK
4. Determine what’s Driving the DPMO :
a. Centering Problem
b. Variability Problem
5. Conduct Capability and Performance Studies

Rev. 1 12/98
 The Three Aspects of Process Capability

Customer Requirements

 Point of Inflection

Process Characterization
How do we characterize a process? 1
1

TT
Process Stability
Why is Stability Important?
How do we know if a process is stable?

Rev. 1 12/98
3
  = 0.41  = 0.04  = 0.81

Process A Process B Process C

Which process is the

BEST ?
WHY ?
 = standard deviation
Rev. 1 12/98
 That is how we measure the process capability for
attributes.
What can we do for variables data?

Rev. 1 12/98
 Distributions

Parts Vary From Each Other

But They Form a Pattern That, If Stable,
Can Be Described as a Distribution

Distributions Can Differ In:

Location Spread Shape

For a normal distribution we care
about the
mean , and the standard deviation .
Rev. 1 12/98
 Process Stability
Clearly we have variation!
What are the possible causes?
Special
or
Assignable Cause
Variation

Any factors causing

variation that
are not always
present.
These unpredictable events
If Stability Is Lost usually act to change the
So Is Capability! process standard deviation
by an unknown amount

A process is out of control and not stable;

i.e., if special cause variation is present!
Rev. 1 12/98
 Process Capability
Lower Upper
Spec Limit Spec Limit Upper
Lower
Spec Limit
In Control Spec Limit
But Not Capable
Variation from Common
Cause Excessive

In Control AND Capable

Rev. 1 12/98
Variation from Common Causes Reduced
 
Total sT N
( X i  X )2
STotal  
i 1 N 1

Sample 5 s5
Pooled
Standard Deviation
Sample 4 s4
S12  S22 ... S K2
k
SP  
i 1 K
Sample 3 s3
Assuming equal subgroup size

Sample 2 s2
“Average”
Standard Deviation
Sample 1 s1

In a perfect state of control Stotal = Sp

Rev. 1 12/98
 SP
Represents The
Short Term Process Standard Deviation
sst
Or
Within Process Standard Deviation

The Process “Potential”

sporsst represents the most consistent a process can be

over a short period of time
Rev. 1 12/98
 Long Term Vs Short Term

Lot 1 Lot 5
Lot 3
gm/bulb

Lot 2

Lot 4
Short Term Studies

Long Term Study

Rev. 1 12/98
 …SHIFT
OVERHAPPENS
TIME...

Thursday

Wednesday

Tuesday
Monday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Monday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday
Monday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Tuesday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday
Tuesday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Wednesday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Wednesday
Wednesday
Wednesday
Wednesday
Wednesday
Wednesday
Wednesday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Thursday

Rev. 1 12/98
 Thursday
Thursday
Thursday
Thursday
Thursday

Rev. 1 12/98
 This distribution is
made up of many
smaller time periods.

n
io
ut
ib
tr
is
D
rm
Te
ng
Lo

Rev. 1 12/98
 Thursday

Wednesday

Tuesday
Monday

Rev. 1 12/98
Rev. 1 12/98
Rev. 1 12/98
Rev. 1 12/98
Rev. 1 12/98
 This distribution is
an average of the
small ones and
centered on target.

n
io
ut
ib
tr
is
D
m
er
tT
or
Sh

Rev. 1 12/98
 Short Term Long Term

Small Standard Large Standard

Deviation Deviation
On Target Off Target

Larger Z Smaller Z
Without calculating actuals we assume 1.5
Rev. 1 12/98
 Short Term Long Term

ZST = ZZShift + Z LT
Z
Z
Shift
Shift
Z
Z
Shift
Shift
Calculate Your Shift!
Z Shift
Shift
Rev. 1 12/98
 Capability Sixpack using Pooled Std Deviation

Process Capability Sixpack for CAPABILITY.MTW Look at

Look for out histogram, Is
of control Xbar and R Chart Capability Histogram
it ‘normal’ ?
85
conditions 3.0SL=82.22

75
Means

X=72.97

65 -3.0SL=63.71

1
55
50 70 90
Subgr 0 10 20 30
Normal Prob Plot
3.0SL=33.92
30

Look at plot.
Ranges

20
R=16.04
10
Is it a straight
0 -3.0SL=0.000
line ?
50 70 90

Last 25 Subgroups Capability Plot

Process Tolerance
80 52.2761 93.6593
Values

Cp: 1.45 I I I
70
CPU: 1.31
Can you use
I I I
60 CPL: 1.59 40 100 Cp and Cpk ?
50 Cpk: 1.31 Specifications
10 20 30 StDev: 6.89721
Subgroup Number

There’s an out of control condition so you

Rev. 1 12/98
must use the total standard deviation