Binomial distribution

* One widely used probability distribution of a discrete random

variable.
*Named after Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli.
*Known as the outcome of Bernoulli process.
* Binomial distribution describes discrete, not continuous ,data ,
resulting from an experiment known as Bernoulli process.
 Binomoial distribution
the process includes_
1.The process is performed under the same
conditions for a fixed & finite number of
trials,n.
2.Each trial is independent from other trials.
3.Each trial has only two possible outcome
4.The probablity of success,p,remains constant
from trial to trial.
P=probability of success
q=probability of failure
r=number of success desired
n=number of trial undertaken
 Problem
• If we toss a coin 3 times then chances of
getting exactly 2 heads will be_
As,
p=0.5
q=.05 p+q=1
r= 2
n=3
prolem
Binomial distribution
Condition for Binomial distribution
n=number of trial
p=probability of success
Mean of binomial
Mean- binomial
n=number of trials
p=probability of success
q=probability of failure
Variance-binomial
Variance- binomial
 Problem
1. In a certain factory10% of the products are defective. If a
random sample of 25 products are drawn from the output.
Find the probability that:
a) Five or fewer will defective
P(X≤ 5) = p(x=0)+ p(x=1) + p(x=2) + p(x=3) + p(x=4) + p(x= 5)
=.9666
b) Two, three or four will be defective
P(2 ≤ X ≤ 4)=P(X ≤4) – P(X ≤ 1)
= p(x=0)+ p(x=1) + p(x=2) + p(x=3) +p(x=4)
–(p(x=0)+ p(x=1) )
=0.9020-0.2712
=0.6308
c)At least 2 will be defective
d) At most 3 will be defective
 Problem
2. About 30% of the production are defective in a factory. 10
bulbs are packed in one packet. Among the 1000 packets find
the probability that i) no bulb is defective ii) at best one bulb
is defective and find such kind of expected number of packets.

* We can make the following generalizations:

# When p is small (0.1), the distribution is skewed to the right.
# As p increases (0.3), the skewness is less noticeable.
# When p= 0.5 the distribution is symmetrical
# When p is larger than 0.5 the distribution is skewed to the left.

# This is true for any pair of complemetary p and q values (0.3

and .7, 0.4 and 0.6, and 0.2 and 0.8).

 Fitting a Binomial distribution
• When a binomial distribution is to be fitted to
observe data, the following procedure is adopted.

1. Determine the values of p and q

2. Expand the binomial function.
• 3. Multiply each term of the expanded binomial
by N( the total frequency), in order to the
obtain the the expanded binomial expected
frequency in each category .
 Poblem
• 1. The screws produced by a certain machine were
checked by examining number of defectives in a
sample of 12. the following table shows the
distribution of 128 samples according to the number
of defective items they contained:
• No. of defectives in a
sample of 12: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 total
No of samples: 7 6 19 35 30 23 7 1 128
Fit a binomial dist and find the expected frequencies
if the chance of machine being defective is ½. Also
find the mean and sd of the fitted distribution
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The second important discrete probability distribution named
after the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson(1781-

1840 ).
Poisson distribution differs from the binomial dist in two
aspects:
i) Rather than consisting of discrete trials, the dist operates
continuously over some given amount of time, distance,
area etc.
ii) Rather than producing a sequence of success and failures,
the dist produces successes, which occur at random points in
the specified time, distance, area.
Poisson distribution
 Characteristics of Poisson Distribution
1)The occurrence of the events is independent. That is the
occurance of an event in an interval of space or time has no
effect on the probability
2)An infinite number of occurrences of the event must be possible
in the interval
3)The probability of single occurrence in a given interval is
proportional to the length of the interval
4)In any infinitesimal(extremely small) portion of interval,the
probability of two or more occurrences of the event is
negligible.
 Differs from the binomial distribution in important
aspects

1)Rather than consisting of discrete trials,the

distribution operates continuously over some
given amount of time, distance, area etc
2)Rather than producing a sequence of successes &
failures.The distribution produces successes
which occur at random points in the specified
time,distance,area.
3)The mean &variance of poisson distribution are
Same.
 Conditions for which Poisson Distribution as an
approximation of the Binomial Distribution:

1)When the number of trials are large that means n is large

2)The Binomial Probability of success is small that means p
is small

* The rule most often used by statisticians is that the

Poisson is a good approximation of Binomial when n is
greater than or equal to 20 & p is less than or equal to
0.05
 Business application of Poisson Distribution:

1)The demand for a product

2)Typographical errors occurring on the pages of a book
3)The occurrence of accident in a factory
4)The arrival pattern in a departmental store
5)The occurrences of flaws in a bolt in a factory
6)The arrival of calls at a switch board
 problem
1. at most 2 bulbs will be defective.
If 3% of the electric bulbs manufactured by a company are
defective, find the probability that in a sample of 100 bulbs i)
1 bulbs ii)
2. What probability model is appropriate to describe a situation
where 100 misprints are distributed randomly throughout the
100 pages of a book? For this model, what is the probability
that a page observed at random will contain at least three
misprints?
• M=np=1. e-m = .3679
• P[x>/ 3]= .0802
3. In a poisson distribution, P(x=2)=P(x=3)
.i) Find the parameter and sd of the distribution.
ii)Prob function
iii) P(x>1)

4. Between the hours 2 pm and 4 pm the average

number of phone calls per minute coming into switch
board of a company is 2.5. find the the probability
that during one particular minute there will be i)4 or
fewer ii) more than 6 phone calls.
 problem
5. An analyst predicts that 2.5% of all small companies
will file for bankruptcy in the coming year. For a
random sample of 200 companies, estimate the porb
that,
i)at least three will file for the bankruptcy next year
ii) between 3 and five will file for bankruptcy
 Fitting of poisson distribution
The process of fitting a poisson dist is simple.
We have t obtain the values of m and calculate
the probability of zero occurrences. the other
probabilities can be easily calculated by the
recurrence relation as follows:

f(0) = e-m
When x=0 , f(1)=m f(0) , x=1, f(2)= m/2f(1)
x=3 , f(3)= m/3 f(2), x=4 , f(4)= m/4 f(3)
 Fitting of poisson distribution
1.The following table gives the number of days
in a 50 day period during which automobile
accidents occurred in a city. Fit the poisson
distribution to the data:

No of accidents(x) 0 1 2 3 4
No. of days(f) 21 18 7 3 1
Fx 0 18 14 9 4
m= 0.9
 Normal distribution
Normal distribution is the most important
continuous probability distribution. It is
continuous means it accept all the value
between a given range. The probability of
single point is not possible. It is between
∫fxdx=1 -∞<x < ∞.
f(x)=
 Properties of normal distribution
• The curve has a single peak ,one max point thus it is
unimodal.
• It is symmetrically distributed about the mean,( skewness=0)
If the curve is folded along its vertical axis, the two halves will
concide
• The no of cases below the mean and above the mean is same,
which makes mean and median same. Also the height of the
normal curve is at its maximum at the mean. Thus Mean,
median, mode are all equal.
• Two tails normal distribution are extended forever and never
touches horizontal axis.
• First and third quartiles are equidistant
• All odd moments are zero, skewness=0, kurtosis=3
 Properties of normal distribution

*Areas under the normal curve:

i)Approximately 68% of all the values in a normally
distributed population led within ± 1 standard deviation from
the mean.
ii)Approximately 95.5% of all the values in a normally
distributed population led within ± 2 standard deviation from
the mean.

iii) Approximately 99.7% of all the values in a normally

distributed population led within ± 3 standard deviation from
the mean.
Distribution function of Normal :
Standard normal distribution:
 Problems
1. The average daily sales of 500 branch offices was tk 150
thousad and the sd tk 15thousand. Assuming the dist to be
normal, indicate how many branches have sales between
Tk 120 thous and tk 145 thousand
2. The weight of a certain type of a car tyre is normally
distributed with a mean of 45 kg and a variance of 4 kg. A
random sample of 100 tyres is selected. What is the
probability that the mean of this sample lies between 42.5
and 46.4 kg?
3. A workshop produces 2000 units per day. The average
weight of units is 130 kg with a sd of 10 kg. assuming
normal distribution, how many units are expected to
weight less than 142 kg?
4. In a normal distribution, 31% of the items are under 45
and 8% are over 64. Find the mean and sd of the
distributions.
5. The mode and variance of daily income 2000 workers
are Tk. 100 and 36 tk2 respectively. The daily income
of workers are distributed normally. Find the
expected number of workers whose daily income are
i) between tk 100 and tk 105 ii) greater than tk110
iii) less than tk 95 or greater than tk107
problem