AFGHANISTAN

SCOPE
• Historical Background
• Major Armed Conflicts
• Cultural Perspective
• Durand Line
• Existing Crisis
• Future Perspective and Implications 1
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 SEQUENCE
• Historical Background
• Cultural Perspective
• Major Armed Conflicts
• Durand Line
• Current Situation
• Interests of Regional & Extra-regional Powers
• Impact on Pakistan
• Future Perspective

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Introduction

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Introduction

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Introduction

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Introduction

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Introduction

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 HISTORICAL
BACKGROUND

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GEOGRAPHY AND
PEOPLE

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 1206

744 76

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 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Population

• 1979 Census : 23.5 m

 Kabul : 2.45 m

• 2001 Estimate : 26.8 m

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 Tajik – 25%
Uzbek – 8%

Remaining – 13%
Hazara – 10%

Pushtun – 44%

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 CULTURAL
PERSPECTIVE

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 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Cultural Perspective

• Ethnicity

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 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

“The history of ethnic groups in Afghanistan

is one of the permanent conflicts over
resources and fiercely safeguarding their
independence. In a typical Afghan society,
indeed if there was anything worth having or
someone impinged upon his independence,
there was a fight”.

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 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Cultural Perspective
• Ethnicity
 Pukhtunwali
 Reshaping of ethnic identities
 Religious/linguistic preferences
 Sunni/Persian – Tajik

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 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

Cultural Perspective

• Tribalism
 Supported by Pukhtunwali
 Resistance to central authority
 Independence streak

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MAJOR ARMED
CONFLICTS

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Emergence of Afghan State

• Durrani Empire under Ahmed Shah

Abdali (1747-72)
• Tribal anarchy and instability
• Amir Dost Mohammad (1808-63)

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Anglo Afghan Wars

• First Anglo-Afghan War (1839-42)
 To open westward trade route
• Second Anglo-Afghan War (1878-81)
 Continued British expansionism
 Control of Afghan government
• Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919 )
 British finally abandoned interest
 Discontinued subsidies 22
 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Development of Modern Afghan State

• Amanullah Khan Rule (1919-29)
 National Liberation Movement of ‘Young Afghans’
 Getting Rid of British Control of Foreign Affairs
 Third Anglo-Afghan War
 Treaty of Rawalpindi – 1919
 British recognition of independent Afghanistan
 Afghan recognition of Durand Line
 Modernisation attempt outraged religious leaders
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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Development of Modern Afghan State

contd’

• Ammanullah abdicated (1929)

• Nadir Shah Rule (1929-33)
• Mohammad Zahir Shah (1933-73)

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Durand Line
• First accepted by Amir Abdur Rehman
• Signed on 12 November, 1893
 Abdur Rehman Shah
 Sir Henry Mortimer Durand
• Delineated in 1894-95
• Border between Pakistan and Afghanistan
since 1947 25
 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Soviet Influence on Afghanistan

• Soviet-Afghan Treaty – 1921

• Soviet aid to Afghanistan – 1956

• Cultivation of Communist Ideology

(PDPA)

• Influence over Afghan military cadres

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Soviet Invasion and Mujahidin Resistance

• Miscalculated Afghan’s tribal fighting

potential
• Failed to control rural Afghanistan
• Looked for exit strategy by 1986
• Geneva Accord - March 1988
• Soviet Withdrawal - 1989 27
 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Civil War in Afghanistan

• Continued Soviet economic assistance

to Najib Ullah

• Division among Mujahidin

• Struggle for power

• Jihad turned into bloody civil war

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Rise and Fall of Taliban

• Power vacuum since Soviet withdrawal

• Breakdown of state-society relationship

• Rise of Warlords

• Spread of crime

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Rise and Fall of Taliban

contd’

• Tehrik-e-Islami-e-Taliban (1994)
• Disarm rival militia

• Enforce ‘Shariah’

• Students of religious madaris in Pakistan

• Controlled 90% Afghanistan by 1999

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 MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS

Rise and Fall of Taliban

contd’
• Narrow vision of Islam
• Continued providing sanctuary to
Osama bin Laden
• 9/11 Attacks in USA
• USA military action (2001)
• End of Taliban regime 32
CURRENT
SITUATION

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 CURRENT SITUATION

Initiation of Political Process

• Bonn Agreement (Dec, 2001)
• Establishment of interim Afghan
administration
• Important portfolios given to Northern
Alliance causing resentment among
Pushtuns 34
 CURRENT SITUATION

Initiation of Political Process

contd’

• Holding of Loya Jirga (June, 2002)

• Mr Karzai elected President for two years
• Mr Karzai pledged to follow Jirga’s
mandate
 Revive Islam
 Bring peace
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 CURRENT SITUATION

Security in Afghanistan
• Deployment of ISAF
• Role/mandate restricted to Kabul
• Insecure environment accentuated by bomb
blasts
• Afghanistan likely to remain destabilized
• Slow progress on National Army
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 CURRENT SITUATION

Security in Afghanistan
contd’

• Elimination of warlords – A difficult task

• Interests of warlords served by continuing
hostilities
• Reconstruction efforts would be delayed

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 CURRENT SITUATION

Reconstruction of Afghanistan
• An elusive dream
 International aid pledges unfulfilled
 Presence of mines and unexploded ordnance
 Poor law and order situation
 Warlords
 US policy of wait and see
 Incapacity to absorb funds
• Afghan crisis may deepen 38
 INTERESTS OF
REGIONAL AND EXTRA
REGIONAL POWERS

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 CURRENT SITUATION

US Interests in Afghanistan
• Short Term
 Fight terrorism
 Kill/capture Osama bin Laden
 Destroy Al-Qaeda network
 Not allow Taliban to regroup
• Long Term
 Access to Central Asian hydrocarbon resources
 Guard against rise of Islamic fundamentalism
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 CURRENT SITUATION

Russian Interests in Afghanistan

• Short Term
 Gain influence in Afghanistan
 Not allow Central Asian hydrocarbon export
through Afghanistan
• Long Term
 Keep tensions alive
 Gain economic benefits
 Guard against US long term presence in region
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 CURRENT SITUATION

China’s Interests in Afghanistan

• Security/economic interests
• Contain rise of Islamic fundamentalism in
region
• Guard against US long term presence in
Afghanistan

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 CURRENT SITUATION

Pakistan’s Interests in Afghanistan

• Stable and friendly Afghanistan
 Security
 Commercial benefits
• Share in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and
rehabilitation
• Trade routes to CARs
• Oil / Gas pipelines from Central Asian
resources to Gawadar/India 43
 CURRENT SITUATION

India’s Interests in Afghanistan

• Consolidate links with Northern Alliance

• Extend influence in Central Asia
• Drive a wedge between Pakistan and
Afghanistan
• Create security problems for Pakistan

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 CURRENT SITUATION

Iran’s Interests in Afghanistan

• Export of Central Asian hydrocarbon via

pipeline constucted through Iran
• Guard against US long term presence in
Afghanistan

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 CURRENT SITUATION

CARs’ Interests in Afghanistan

• Provide outlet for export of natural resources

• Stable and peaceful Afghanistan

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IPMACT OF AFGHAN
CRISIS ON PAKISTAN

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 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

From Soviet Invasion till Taliban

• Short Term positive impact
 Lifting of US arms embargo
 Debt rescheduling
 $3.2 billion aid package (1982-86)
 Provision of F-16 for PAF and arms for
Mujahidin
 Money from Saudi Arabia
 UNHCR for refugees 48
 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

From Soviet Invasion till Taliban

contd’

• Long Term negative impact

 Massive influx of refugees
 Burden on economy
 Religious fanaticism
 Sectarian violence
 Radicalization of society
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 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

From Soviet Invasion till Taliban

contd’
• Impact on economy
 Smuggling through ATT
 Loss of revenue
• Kalashnikov culture
• Spread of drug menace

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 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

Impact of Events after 9/11

• Joined US-led coalition
• Major policy shift towards Afghanistan
 Preserve strategic assets
 Secure vital national interests
• Contained initial protests
• Aggressive clamp down against armed
extremist groups
• Infiltration of Al-Qaeda/Taliban in tribal areas
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 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

Impact of Events after 9/11

contd’

• Bomb blasts against foreigners/innocent

civilians
• Rise of anti-US sentiments
• Electoral gains by religious political parties
• Pressure to give up pro-US stance
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 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

Impact of Events after 9/11

• Negative economic fall-out
 Stock market crashed
 Reduction in air travel
 Exports suffered due to imposition of high risk
insurance
 Cargo capacity reduced
 FDI declined 53
 IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

Impact of Events after 9/11

contd’
• Short term gains
 Nuclear sanctions removed
 Debt rescheduled
 Improved relations with IMF and WB
 US wrote off $1.0 billion debt
• Long term benefits to accrue if peace and
stability return 54
PROSPECTS OF PEACE AND
STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN

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 FUTURE PROSPECTS

Prospects of Peace and Stability

• Non-conducive environment for foreseeable

future
• Possible real motives of USA?
 Monopoly over oil/gas resources of Central Asia
 Remain in region for long term political/ security
interests

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 FUTURE PROSPECTS

Likely US Approach
• Keep Afghanistan dependent
• Demand safe passage of oil/gas to Arabian Sea
• Maintain presence to counter China and East
Asian block
• Moderate resurgence of Islamic renaissance
forces
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 FUTURE PROSPECTS

Likely US Approach
contd’

• Possibly use Afghanistan for military action

against Iran
• Stem flow of drugs
• Keep CARs, Afghanistan and Pakistan under
control

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 FUTURE PROSPECTS

Likely Implications of US Agenda

• May spark tension in the region

• Security dilemma for Pakistan
• Prospects of peace and stability interlinked
with fulfilment of US agenda

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 FUTURE PROSPECTS

Likely Implications of US Agenda

contd’
• Factors for success of US agenda
 Effective control of Central Govt in Kabul
 Mitigate impact of warlords
 Carefully calibrated strategy to deal with
opposing Russia-China-India-Iran nexus

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CONCLUSION

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Q&A

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