Chapter 3 Probability

ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Chapter 3 Probability
MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

Chapter 3. Section 3-1 and 3-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman EDITION 1
Chapter 3
Probability
3-1 Overview
3-2 Fundamentals
3-3 Addition Rule
3-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics
3-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and
Conditional Probability
3-6 Probabilities Through Simulations
3-7 Counting
Chapter 3. Section 3-1 and 3-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 2
3-1 Overview
Objectives
 develop sound understanding of
probability values used in subsequent
chapters
 develop basic skills necessary to solve
simple probability problems
Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics:
If, under a given assumption, the probability of a
particular observed event is extremely small, we
conclude that the assumption is probably not correct.
Section 3-2 Fundamentals

Chapter 3. Section 3-1 and 3-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley LongmanEDITION 4
3-2 Fundamentals
Definitions
Event - any collection of results or
outcomes from some procedure
 Simple event - any outcome or event that

cannot be broken down into
simpler components
 Sample space - all possible simple events
Notation
P - denotes a probability
A, B, ... - denote specific events
P (A) - denotes the probability of
event A occurring
Basic Rules for
Computing Probability
Rule 1: Relative Frequency Approximation
Conduct (or observe) an experiment a large
number of times, and count the number of
times event A actually occurs, then an
estimate of P(A) is
Basic Rules for
Rule 1: Relative Frequency Approximation
Conduct (or observe) an experiment a large
number of times, and count the number of
times event A actually occurs, then an
estimate of P(A) is
number of times A occurred

P(A) = number of times trial was repeated
Basic Rules for
Rule 2: Classical approach

(requires equally likely outcomes)
If a procedure has n different simple events,
each with an equal chance of occurring, and s is
the number of ways event A can occur, then
Basic Rules for
Rule 2: Classical approach

(requires equally likely outcomes)
If a procedure has n different simple events,
each with an equal chance of occurring, and s is
the number of ways event A can occur, then
s
P(A) = n = number of ways A can occur
number of different
simple events
Basic Rules for
Rule 3: Subjective Probabilities

P(A), the probability of A, is found by simply
guessing or estimating its value based on
knowledge of the relevant circumstances.
Rule 1
The relative frequency approach is
an approximation.
Rule 1
The relative frequency approach is
an approximation.
Rule 2
The classical approach is the
actual probability.
Law of Large Numbers
As a procedure is repeated again and

again, the relative frequency probability
(from Rule 1) of an event tends to
approach the actual probability.
Illustration of
Law of Large Numbers
Figure 3-2
Example: Find the probability that a randomly
selected person will be struck by lightning this
year.
The sample space consists of two simple events: the
person is struck by lightning or is not. Because
these simple events are not equally likely, we can
use the relative frequency approximation (Rule 1) or
subjectively estimate the probability (Rule 3). Using
Rule 1, we can research past events to determine
that in a recent year 377 people were struck by
lightning in the US, which has a population of about
274,037,295. Therefore,
P(struck by lightning in a year) 
377 / 274,037,295  1/727,000
Example: On an ACT or SAT test, a typical multiple-
choice question has 5 possible answers. If you make a
random guess on one such question, what is the
probability that your response is wrong?
There are 5 possible outcomes or

answers, and there are 4 ways to answer
incorrectly. Random guessing implies that
the outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely, so we apply the classical
approach (Rule 2) to get:
P(wrong answer) = 4 / 5 = 0.8
Probability Limits
 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

 The probability of an event that is certain
to occur is 1.
Probability Limits

to occur is 1.
0  P(A)  1
Probability Limits

to occur is 1.
0  P(A)  1
Impossible
to occur
Probability Limits

to occur is 1.
0  P(A)  1
Impossible Certain
to occur to occur
Possible Values for Probabilities
1 Certain
Likely
0.5 50-50 Chance
Unlikely
Figure 3-3
0 Impossible
Complementary Events
The complement of event A, denoted
by A, consists of all outcomes in
which event A does not occur.
The complement of event A, denoted
by A, consists of all outcomes in
which event A does not occur.
P(A) P(A)
(read “not A”)
Example: Testing Corvettes
The General Motors Corporation wants to conduct a
test of a new model of Corvette. A pool of 50 drivers
has been recruited, 20 or whom are men. When the
first person is selected from this pool, what is the
probability of not getting a male driver?
Example: Testing Corvettes
The General Motors Corporation wants to conduct a
test of a new model of Corvette. A pool of 50 drivers
has been recruited, 20 of whom are men. When the
first person is selected from this pool, what is the
probability of not getting a male driver?
Because 20 of the 50 subjects are men,

it follows that 30 of the 50 subjects are
women so,
P(not selecting a man) = P(man)
= P(woman)
= 30 = 0.6
50
Rounding Off Probabilities
give the exact fraction or decimal

or
Rounding Off Probabilities
give the exact fraction or decimal

or
round off the final result to three
significant digits
Odds
Odds
actual odds against event A occurring
are the ratio P(A) P(A), usually
expressed in the form of a:b
(or ‘a to b’), where a and b are
integers with no common factors
actual odds in favor of event A are the

reciprocal of the odds against that
event, b:a (or ‘b to a’)
Odds
 The payoff odds against event A
represent the ratio of net profit (if
you win) to the amount of the bet.
Payoff odds against event A =

(net profit):(amount bet)
Section 3-3 Addition Rule

Definition
 Compound Event
Any event combining 2 or more
simple events
Definition
 Compound Event
Any event combining 2 or more
simple events
 Notation
P(A or B) = P (event A occurs or event B
occurs or they both occur)
Compound Event
General Rule
When finding the probability that event A
occurs or event B occurs, find the total number
of ways A can occur and the number of ways B
can occur, but find the total in such a way that
no outcome is counted more than once.
Compound Event
Formal Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
where P(A and B) denotes the probability that A and B both
occur at the same time.
Compound Event
Formal Addition Rule
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
where P(A and B) denotes the probability that A and B both
occur at the same time.
Intuitive Addition Rule

To find P(A or B), find the sum of the number of ways event A
can occur and the number of ways event B can occur, adding
in such a way that every outcome is counted only once. P(A or
B) is equal to that sum, divided by the total number of
outcomes.
Definition
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur simultaneously.
Definition
Total Area = 1
P(A) P(B)
P(A and B)
Overlapping Events
Figures 3-5
Definition
Total Area = 1 Total Area = 1
P(A) P(B) P(A) P(B)
P(A and B)
Overlapping Events Non-overlapping Events

Figures 3-5 and 3-6
Figure 3-7 Applying the Addition Rule
P(A or B)
Addition Rule
Are
A and B Yes
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
mutually
exclusive
?
No
P(A or B) = P(A)+ P(B) - P(A and B)
Contingency Table
Men Women Boys Girls Totals
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790
2223 2223 2223
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790
2223 2223 2223
* Mutually Exclusive *
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223
Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who

survived.
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

survived.
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

survived.
P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 - 332 = 1756 = 0.929
2223 2223 2223 2223
Contingency Table
Survived 332 318 29 27 706
Died 1360 104 35 18 1517
Total 1692 422 64 56 2223

survived.
P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 - 332 = 1756
2223 2223 2223 2223 = 0.929
* NOT Mutually Exclusive *

P(A) and P(A)

are
mutually exclusive
P(A) and P(A)

are
mutually exclusive
All simple events are either in A or A.
P(A) and P(A)

are
mutually exclusive
All simple events are either in A or A.
P(A) + P(A) = 1
Rules of Complementary Events
P(A) + P(A) = 1
P(A) + P(A) = 1
P(A) = 1 - P(A)
P(A) + P(A) = 1
P(A) = 1 - P(A)
P(A) = 1 - P(A)
Figure 3-8 Venn Diagram for the
Complement of Event A
Total Area = 1
P (A)
P (A) = 1 - P (A)
Section 3-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics

EDITION
Finding the Probability of
Two or More Selections
 Multiple selections
 Multiplication Rule
Notation
P(A and B) =
P(event A occurs in a first trial and
event B occurs in a second trial)
FIGURE 3-9 Tree Diagram of Test Answers
a
Ta
b Tb
c Tc
T d Td
e Te
a Fa
b Fb
c
F Fc
d
Fd
e
Fe
a Ta
b Tb
c Tc
T d
Td
e
Te
a
b Fa
c Fb
F d Fc
e Fd
Fe
a Ta
b Tb
c Tc
T d
Td
e
Te
a
b Fa
c Fb
F d Fc
e Fd
Fe
1
P(T) = 2
a Ta
b Tb
c Tc
T d Td
e
Te
a
b
Fa
c Fb
F d Fc
e Fd
Fe
1 1
P(T) = 2
P(c) = 5
a Ta
b Tb
c Tc
T d
Td
e
Te
a
b Fa
c Fb
F d Fc
e Fd
Fe
1 1 1
P(T) = 2
P(c) = 5 P(T and c) = 10
P (both correct)
P (both correct) = P (T and c)
1 1 1
10 2 5
1 = 1 1
10 2
•
5
Multiplication
Rule
1 = 1 1
10 2
•
5
Multiplication
Rule
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Notation for Conditional
Probability
P(B A) represents the probability of event B occurring

after it is assumed that event A has already occurred
(read B A as “B given A”).
Definitions
 Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability
of the occurrence of the other.
 Dependent Events
If A and B are not independent, they are said to
be dependent.
Formal Multiplication Rule
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B A)
If A and B are independent events,

P(B A) is really the same as P(B)
Figure 3-10 Applying the Multiplication Rule
P(A and B)
Multiplication Rule
Are
A and B Yes
independent P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
?
No
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B A)
Intuitive Multiplication
When finding the probability that event A occurs in one
trial and B occurs in the next trial, multiply the
probability of event A by the probability of event B, but
be sure that the probability of event B takes into
account the previous occurrence of event A.
Small Samples
from
Large Populations
If a sample size is no more than 5% of the size
of the population, treat the selections as being
independent (even if the selections are made
without replacement, so they are technically
dependent).
Section 3-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and

Probability of ‘At Least One’
 ‘At least one’ is equivalent to ‘one or
more’.
more’.
 The complement of getting at least one item
of a particular type is that you get no items of
that type.
more’.
that type.
If P(A) = P(getting at least one), then
more’.
that type.

P(A) = 1 - P(A)
more’.
that type.

P(A) = 1 - P(A)
where P(A) is P(getting none)
 Find the probablility of a couple have at
least 1 girl among 3 children.
If P(A) = P(getting at least 1 girl), then

P(A) = 1 - P(A)
where P(A) is P(getting no girls)

P(A) = 1 - P(A)
P(A) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.125

P(A) = 1 - P(A)
P(A) = (0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.125
P(A) = 1 - 0.125 = 0.875
Definition
The conditional probability of event B
occurring, given that A has already occurred, can
be found by dividing the probability of events A
and B both occurring by the probability of event A.
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

Formal

Formal
P(A and B)
P(B|A) =
P(A)

Formal
P(A and B)
P(B|A) =
P(A)
Intuitive

Formal
P(A and B)
P(B|A) = P(A)
Intuitive
The conditional probability of B given A can be found
by assuming the event A has occurred and, operating
under that assumption, calculating the probability that
event B will occur.
Testing for Independence
If P(B|A) = P(B)
then the occurrence of A has no effect on the
probability of event B; that is, A and B are
independent events.
If P(B|A) = P(B)
then the occurrence of A has no effect on the
probability of event B; that is, A and B are
independent events.
or
If P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
then A and B are independent events.

Chapter 3 Probability

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ELEMENTARY STATISTICS

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

 Simple event - any outcome or event that

 Sample space - all possible simple events

number of times A occurred

Rule 2: Classical approach

Rule 2: Classical approach

Rule 3: Subjective Probabilities

As a procedure is repeated again and

There are 5 possible outcomes or

P(wrong answer) = 4 / 5 = 0.8

 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

0.5 50-50 Chance

Because 20 of the 50 subjects are men,

give the exact fraction or decimal

give the exact fraction or decimal

actual odds in favor of event A are the

Payoff odds against event A =

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

Intuitive Addition Rule

P(A) P(B) P(A) P(B)

Overlapping Events Non-overlapping Events

P(A or B) = P(A)+ P(B) - P(A and B)

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy.

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who

Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who

* NOT Mutually Exclusive *

P(A) and P(A)

P(A) and P(A)

P(A) and P(A)

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

P(B A) represents the probability of event B occurring

If A and B are independent events,

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B A)

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

If P(A) = P(getting at least one), then

If P(A) = P(getting at least one), then

If P(A) = P(getting at least one), then

If P(A) = P(getting at least 1 girl), then

If P(A) = P(getting at least 1 girl), then

If P(A) = P(getting at least 1 girl), then

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

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