The

Future of
Cooling in Presented by

India
Akash Goenka

Research Associate

on

26 October 2018

at

Image courtesy: Asia Society

1
Who am I?
• Calcutta
• Vellore
• London
• New Delhi

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Part 1
Cooling without warming the planet

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What is the key message of the IPCC special report released in October 2018?

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Half a degree matters
• Mean temperature over land and water Heatwave events by 2050: 5x vs 9x
• Heat waves in inhabited regions
Indian monsoon extreme rainfall: 20% vs 25%
• Floods and droughts
• Sea level rise Population affected and economic damage by
• Species loss and extinction river flooding : ~300% vs ~500%

• Ocean pH Source: Carbon Brief

• Human health
• Food security
• Water supply
• Economic growth

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The service of cooling and synergies with
SDGs
• SDG 3 (Good health and well-being)
• The New York Times, 17 July 2018: In India, Summer Heat May Soon Be Literally Unbearable

• SDG 8 (Decent work and economic growth)

• Vox, 23 March 2015: Singapore’s founding father thought air conditioning was the secret to his
country’s success

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India today

What % of Indian homes have

air-conditioning today?

Source: IEA. (2018). The Future of Cooling.

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On the cusp of change
Per Capita Income Urbanisation
700000 500
600000
400
500000

HH (million)
400000 300 Rural
INR

300000 200
200000
100 Urban
100000
0 0

Source: NITI Aayog. (2015). IESS 2047.

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 The service of cooling and trade-offs with
SDGs
Which ones?

Image courtesy: UNDP

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 The service of cooling and trade-offs with
SDGs

Image courtesy: UNDP

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Part 2
Where are we heading?

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Space cooling in buildings – extant situation
Total Primary Energy Supply
(TPES): 34 mtoe CO2e emission: 124 mtCO2e
• Preponderance of room
ACs

• ~40% presence of non-

refrigerant-based cooling
from fans and air coolers

Source: AEEE. (2018). Demand Analysis for Cooling by Sector in India in 2027.
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 39 million room ACs (RACs) today
What will this number look like in 10 years’ time?

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 Banquo:
If you can look into the seeds of time,
And say which grain will grow and which will not,
Speak then unto me…
- Macbeth (Act I, Scene iii)

Image courtesy: YouTube

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 India’s RAC stock will quadruple in 10 years
• Total Primary Energy Supply
(TPES)
• 2017: 13 mtoe
• 2027: 38 mtoe
• 70 medium sized power
plants

• Total CO2e emission (70%

indirect + 30% direct)
• 2017: 57 mtCO2e
• 2027: 163 mtCO2e
• 1 GtCO2e b/w now and
then (IPCC 1.5℃ carbon
budget: 420 GtCO2e b/w
now and 2050)

RAC stock will grow 10-12 times by

Source: AEEE. (2018). Demand Analysis for Cooling by Sector in India in 2027. 2037-38 per a conservative estimate!
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Space cooling in buildings – 10 years later
• Annual TPES and carbon emission will more than double

• Added power generating capacity of 100+ medium sized power plants

• 2 GtCO2e b/w now and then

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 Blithe unawareness ?

Image courtesy: The New York Times

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Part 3
What can be done?

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Lean, Mean, Green
• Minimise the need for air-conditioning
• Building design and orientation
• Innovations in building envelope (insulation, glazing systems)
• Cool roofs

• Meet cooling loads efficiently

• Crank the set-point up
• Controls
• Improving the efficiency of known technologies
• Step changes in cooling technologies

• Reducing the carbon footprint

• Next generation refrigerants
• Integration of clean energy

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Impact of HP windows glazing
• Upcoming air-conditioned commercial building stock

• Hot & dry, warm & humid, composite climates

• Incremental improvements in U-values and SHGC of windows glazing

(prescribed by ECBC 2017)

• India-wide reduction of AC energy consumption in 2030

Source: AEEE. (2018). Projecting National Energy Saving Estimate from the Adoption of High Performance Windows Glazing in 2030.
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Methodology
• Simulated EPI (kWh/m2/year) at different permutations of glazing ratio (or WWR), U-value, SHGC and
ambient conditions (or climate type)

• Estimation of eligible (AC) built-up area using the Delphi technique

• Distribution of eligible built-up area by climate type and WWR

• Construction of baseline (highest EPI) and improved (lowest EPI) scenarios at different U-value and SHGC
combinations

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Technical AC energy saving potential
• 3.6 TWh savings in
2030 (1 year only!)

• Significant savings
over the life of the
building stock

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Source: Sachar, S., Goenka, A., Kumar, S. (2018). Leveraging an Understanding of RAC Usage in the Residential Sector to Support India’s Climate Change Commitment.
In: ACEEE Summer Study 2018. American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy. 23
Survey methodology
• Comprised 13 questions covering geographical location, house & household size, RAC number, type &
runtime, set point preference, and fan use

• Administered online

• Physically administered with the help of student-surveyors in 6 cities; these surveys particularly focused on
low to mid-income category households

• Well-rounded response of 975 households from 100+ towns and cities in States (and UTs)

• Responses almost equally divided among the climate zones i.e. hot-dry, warm-humid and composite

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RAC set-point preferences
29℃ 30℃ 16℃ 17℃
28℃ 1% 1% 1% 18℃
2%
1%
6% 19℃
1%
• 24°C is the most preferred
27℃
set point nationwide,
8% 20℃
7%
adopted by 20% of the
survey population
26℃
21℃
10%
4%

• 46% of the survey

population operates RACs
at temperatures below
24°C
22℃
25℃
16%
12%

• The composite climate

zone shows preference for
a lower set point at 22°C
23℃
10%
24℃
20%

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RAC + fan use
• Fans are very pervasive in Indian homes

• A significant proportion of people (66%) prefer using a fan in conjunction with air-conditioning

• Case for applying adaptive thermal comfort in the residential sector, since air movement can help widen the
thermal comfort band

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Application of adaptive thermal comfort
Hot-dry Warm-humid Composite
Neutral temperature range 24.3 –
(Dhaka, Mathur and Garg 2012) 23.7 – 28.0°C 25.2 – 27.5°C 27.8°C
22°C
Most preferred set point per climate zone 24°C (19%) 24°C (27%) (20%)
Households that use RAC set point in neutral
range 61% 17% 52%
Households that use RAC set point below neutral
range 37% 82% 45%

Concurrent fan use 65% 59% 77%

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Impact of adaptive thermal comfort
• The set point can be set above the most preferred set point, indicated by the survey, especially when fans
are used concurrently to provide assisted air motion

• Broadly, if ATC standards were applied, it could amount to 27-50 TWh of energy savings in 2030

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Summary
• Cooling is being increasingly recognised as a developmental need

• India has low access to active cooling but is poised for change

• Whilst new cooling capacities will improve living and working conditions, it may come at unprecedented
social and environmental costs

• Window of opportunity to address the future of cooling in India

• Important to instate meaningful technological and market interventions driven by policy support

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Thank you!
akash@aeee.in

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